Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Picks
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Info
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Not televised
American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks
Kings +4.5 (-110)
Under 218.5 (-110)
SPREAD PLAY (4.5)
A clear pattern is emerging in terms of who the Mavericks beat or lose to. They’ve lost to the only playoff teams they’ve faced, Denver and Atlanta, in non-competitive blowouts.
Meanwhile, they’ve beaten the 2-4 Spurs, the 1-4 Rockets, and a 4-3 Raptor team that has recently been surging on offense.
Except for the Raptors who now rank 15th in offensive rating, Maverick victims rank in the bottom-half in offensive rating.
In order to win, Dallas needs to face a team with minimal offensive firepower. Otherwise, the Mavericks simply lack the guns to keep pace.
Right now, Dallas owns the third-worst offensive rating and the lowest field goal percentage of any team. The explanation for this stark offensive regression involves a link between player performance and scheme.
Regarding the latter, Dallas is posting up more and is showing stronger inclination to attempt mid-range jump shots. This shot profile signifies a newfound aversion to the three-point shooting barrage that one tended to see in Maverick games last year.
This shot profile, moreover, doesn’t suit the players’ skill set. Personnel-wise, Dallas is weak in terms of the offensive potential of its centers and forwards.
The Mavericks need to attach a tighter offensive leash to those big men. Instead, they ought to allow guys like sharpshooter Reggie Bullock to play a stronger role in the offense, which would include attempting as many threes per game as he did previously like last year as a Knick.
Unlike last year with its five-out offensive attacks, Dallas’ current scheme has the players suffer from poor spacing including congestion in the interior.
Speaking strictly of player quality, what is perhaps most dire is the performance of Dallas’ most important player, Luka Doncic.
Doncic is averaging 22.4 points per game, which is very low for him, and he had never been as efficient on the floor as he is now.
On the other side, Sacramento is a far cry from the offensively inept teams Dallas has slid by.
The Kings rank ninth in offensive rating. After investing in this area in recent years, they own a nice arsenal of ball-screen-heavy guards that match up well against a Maverick defense ranking 12th-worst in limiting opposing PPP on this play type.
TOTALS PLAY (218.5)
What I’ve said about Dallas’ offense makes the “under” a must-play.
Expect another game where the Mavs struggle to score.
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Info
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Not televised
American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks
Kings +4.5 (-110)
Under 218.5 (-110)
SPREAD PLAY (4.5)
A clear pattern is emerging in terms of who the Mavericks beat or lose to. They’ve lost to the only playoff teams they’ve faced, Denver and Atlanta, in non-competitive blowouts.
Meanwhile, they’ve beaten the 2-4 Spurs, the 1-4 Rockets, and a 4-3 Raptor team that has recently been surging on offense.
Except for the Raptors who now rank 15th in offensive rating, Maverick victims rank in the bottom-half in offensive rating.
In order to win, Dallas needs to face a team with minimal offensive firepower. Otherwise, the Mavericks simply lack the guns to keep pace.
Right now, Dallas owns the third-worst offensive rating and the lowest field goal percentage of any team. The explanation for this stark offensive regression involves a link between player performance and scheme.
Regarding the latter, Dallas is posting up more and is showing stronger inclination to attempt mid-range jump shots. This shot profile signifies a newfound aversion to the three-point shooting barrage that one tended to see in Maverick games last year.
This shot profile, moreover, doesn’t suit the players’ skill set. Personnel-wise, Dallas is weak in terms of the offensive potential of its centers and forwards.
The Mavericks need to attach a tighter offensive leash to those big men. Instead, they ought to allow guys like sharpshooter Reggie Bullock to play a stronger role in the offense, which would include attempting as many threes per game as he did previously like last year as a Knick.
Unlike last year with its five-out offensive attacks, Dallas’ current scheme has the players suffer from poor spacing including congestion in the interior.
Speaking strictly of player quality, what is perhaps most dire is the performance of Dallas’ most important player, Luka Doncic.
Doncic is averaging 22.4 points per game, which is very low for him, and he had never been as efficient on the floor as he is now.
On the other side, Sacramento is a far cry from the offensively inept teams Dallas has slid by.
The Kings rank ninth in offensive rating. After investing in this area in recent years, they own a nice arsenal of ball-screen-heavy guards that match up well against a Maverick defense ranking 12th-worst in limiting opposing PPP on this play type.
TOTALS PLAY (218.5)
What I’ve said about Dallas’ offense makes the “under” a must-play.
Expect another game where the Mavs struggle to score.
