NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Sacramento Kings vs. Charlotte Hornets
Monday, March 15, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
Charlotte’s Transition Offense
The Hornet offense is built to be at its best in transition.
At point guard, team assist leader LaMelo Ball displays his excellent vision of the court when his team is on the go.
He is looking for and ably locating teammates who do a good job of running the floor.
You can see an example of how quickly the Hornets will add to their point total via transition opportunities:
The offensive boost provided by Melo helps explain why guys like former lottery pick Malik Monk are having career-high scoring averages.
With its athletes and their specific skill sets, Charlotte averages the second-most points per game in transition.
Hornet Transition Offense vs. King Defense
Charlotte’s ability to score depends largely on its ability to execute in transition.
I like the Hornet offense because its transition offense has the best opportunity to succeed tonight against Sacramento’s defense.
In terms of PPP (points per possession) and points, Sacramento owns the NBA’s worst transition defense.
Charlotte’s Half-Court Offense vs. Sacramento Defense
But also Charlotte’s half-court offense has a unique opportunity to succeed tonight.
With guys like Gordon Hayward, Melo, Terry Rozier, and Monk, all of whom love to drive the basketball, Charlotte largely wants to attack the basket.
Largely because of those four players, the Hornets average the sixth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Driving the basketball will come relatively easy against a Sacramento defense that features players who are on the court rather for their ability to score and who constitute a liability on defense.
Allowing opposing players to blow by them feeds into Sacramento’s problems with interior defense, problems which already exist as a consequence of its minimal rim protection.
The Kings do not have guys who can reliably clean up messes at the basket, for which reason they rank 21st in block rate.
Overall, they allow the third-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Charlotte’s Defensive Weakness Unexposed
I like Charlotte tonight because Sacramento is not built to exploit Charlotte's primary weakness on defense whereas Charlotte will exploit Sacramento’s defensive weaknesses.
Opposing teams stand to succeed the most against Charlotte’s defense when they can shoot the three.
The Hornets allow a lot of wide open attempts behind the arc.
However, the Kings attempt the 21st-most three-pointers per game.
Outside of the lately very inconsistent Buddy Hield, the Kings pose minimal threat as a shooting team.
Instead, Sacramento primarily wants to run in transition.
Charlotte’s defense is well-prepared to handle an offense that, like itself, is transition-heavy.
On Saturday, the Hornets dealt with transition-heavy Toronto, limiting the Raptors to 104 points in a 114-104 Hornet victory.
As measured by PPP allowed, Charlotte’s transition defense has consistently been stronger than Sacramento’s.
The same guys who run the floor to score also ably get back on defense.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, March 15, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Memphis’ Defense
On defense, Memphis is known for its ability to wreak havoc.
It will accrue deflections and find other ways to garner steals and turnovers.
In turn, a large part of Memphis’ scoring success comes from its ability to turn defense into offense.
The Grizzlies can turn any team over a lot of times, more times than is usual for that team.
One example is Dallas, which ranks among the NBA’s best teams in avoiding turnovers.
But when it played Memphis, Dallas turned the ball over 16 times. 16 turnovers would position Dallas at last-place in the NBA in turnovers per game if it were a season-long statistic.
The Mavericks could save themselves, though, by getting back on defense in order to limit fast break scoring opportunities.
In contrast, the Grizzlies accrued a combined total of 38 fast break points in two wins over San Antonio in which they scored 129 and 133 points, respectively.
They also forced a lot of turnovers although the Spurs are typically a ball-secure team.
Phoenix Offense vs. Memphis’ Defense
Phoenix’s offense will help raise tonight’s scoring total in two ways.
In terms of opposing fast break efficiency, the Suns resemble the Spurs (as opposed to the Mavericks) in their inability to limit opposing fast break points.
Due to this inability, the “over” was 3-0 when the Suns played Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Charlotte, all of whom average over 15 fast break points per game just like Memphis does.
More fast break points means more quick and easy baskets, which is just what you want when betting the “over.” Memphis accrues the most fast break points per game.
When these two teams last played, the Grizzlies scored only 97 points because they shot with anomalous inefficiency behind the arc.
But Phoenix still managed to produce 128 points in order to help the game go "over."
So the second way in which the Suns will contribute to the “over” is by converting three-point opportunities.
As measured by frequency percentage, Memphis is the ninth-worst team in allowing wide open three-point opportunities.
Especially at home, Phoenix is easily one of the better shooting teams.
Parlay Verdict
Charlotte will covering the spread by exploiting Sacramento’s defensive weaknesses while doing what it wants to do offensively.
Between Phoenix’s half-court offense and Memphis’ ability to generate fast break points, a lot of points will be scored.
Best Bet: Parlay Hornets -3 at -108 & Grizzlies/Suns “over” 228 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Sacramento Kings vs. Charlotte Hornets
Monday, March 15, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
Charlotte’s Transition Offense
The Hornet offense is built to be at its best in transition.
At point guard, team assist leader LaMelo Ball displays his excellent vision of the court when his team is on the go.
He is looking for and ably locating teammates who do a good job of running the floor.
You can see an example of how quickly the Hornets will add to their point total via transition opportunities:
The offensive boost provided by Melo helps explain why guys like former lottery pick Malik Monk are having career-high scoring averages.
With its athletes and their specific skill sets, Charlotte averages the second-most points per game in transition.
Hornet Transition Offense vs. King Defense
Charlotte’s ability to score depends largely on its ability to execute in transition.
I like the Hornet offense because its transition offense has the best opportunity to succeed tonight against Sacramento’s defense.
In terms of PPP (points per possession) and points, Sacramento owns the NBA’s worst transition defense.
Charlotte’s Half-Court Offense vs. Sacramento Defense
But also Charlotte’s half-court offense has a unique opportunity to succeed tonight.
With guys like Gordon Hayward, Melo, Terry Rozier, and Monk, all of whom love to drive the basketball, Charlotte largely wants to attack the basket.
Largely because of those four players, the Hornets average the sixth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Driving the basketball will come relatively easy against a Sacramento defense that features players who are on the court rather for their ability to score and who constitute a liability on defense.
Allowing opposing players to blow by them feeds into Sacramento’s problems with interior defense, problems which already exist as a consequence of its minimal rim protection.
The Kings do not have guys who can reliably clean up messes at the basket, for which reason they rank 21st in block rate.
Overall, they allow the third-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Charlotte’s Defensive Weakness Unexposed
I like Charlotte tonight because Sacramento is not built to exploit Charlotte's primary weakness on defense whereas Charlotte will exploit Sacramento’s defensive weaknesses.
Opposing teams stand to succeed the most against Charlotte’s defense when they can shoot the three.
The Hornets allow a lot of wide open attempts behind the arc.
However, the Kings attempt the 21st-most three-pointers per game.
Outside of the lately very inconsistent Buddy Hield, the Kings pose minimal threat as a shooting team.
Instead, Sacramento primarily wants to run in transition.
Charlotte’s defense is well-prepared to handle an offense that, like itself, is transition-heavy.
On Saturday, the Hornets dealt with transition-heavy Toronto, limiting the Raptors to 104 points in a 114-104 Hornet victory.
As measured by PPP allowed, Charlotte’s transition defense has consistently been stronger than Sacramento’s.
The same guys who run the floor to score also ably get back on defense.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, March 15, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Memphis’ Defense
On defense, Memphis is known for its ability to wreak havoc.
It will accrue deflections and find other ways to garner steals and turnovers.
In turn, a large part of Memphis’ scoring success comes from its ability to turn defense into offense.
The Grizzlies can turn any team over a lot of times, more times than is usual for that team.
One example is Dallas, which ranks among the NBA’s best teams in avoiding turnovers.
But when it played Memphis, Dallas turned the ball over 16 times. 16 turnovers would position Dallas at last-place in the NBA in turnovers per game if it were a season-long statistic.
The Mavericks could save themselves, though, by getting back on defense in order to limit fast break scoring opportunities.
In contrast, the Grizzlies accrued a combined total of 38 fast break points in two wins over San Antonio in which they scored 129 and 133 points, respectively.
They also forced a lot of turnovers although the Spurs are typically a ball-secure team.
Phoenix Offense vs. Memphis’ Defense
Phoenix’s offense will help raise tonight’s scoring total in two ways.
In terms of opposing fast break efficiency, the Suns resemble the Spurs (as opposed to the Mavericks) in their inability to limit opposing fast break points.
Due to this inability, the “over” was 3-0 when the Suns played Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Charlotte, all of whom average over 15 fast break points per game just like Memphis does.
More fast break points means more quick and easy baskets, which is just what you want when betting the “over.” Memphis accrues the most fast break points per game.
When these two teams last played, the Grizzlies scored only 97 points because they shot with anomalous inefficiency behind the arc.
But Phoenix still managed to produce 128 points in order to help the game go "over."
So the second way in which the Suns will contribute to the “over” is by converting three-point opportunities.
As measured by frequency percentage, Memphis is the ninth-worst team in allowing wide open three-point opportunities.
Especially at home, Phoenix is easily one of the better shooting teams.
Parlay Verdict
Charlotte will covering the spread by exploiting Sacramento’s defensive weaknesses while doing what it wants to do offensively.
Between Phoenix’s half-court offense and Memphis’ ability to generate fast break points, a lot of points will be scored.
Best Bet: Parlay Hornets -3 at -108 & Grizzlies/Suns “over” 228 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
