Sacramento/Portland Total

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Sacramento vs Portland - Total opens 205.5

Really? When any blind, deaf & dumb mute paying even the slightest bit of attention knows that Sacramento...

is 6-0 to Over at an avg of 225.5 pts the last 6 of their games Kevin Martin has appeared in.

is 8-0 to Over at an avg of 215.8 pts in their last 8 SU wins

is 13-1 to Over at an avg of 218.6 pts the last 14 of their home games Brad Miller has appeared in

is 9-2 to Over at an avg of 217.6 pts since the AS break in games Kevin Martin appeared in.

has conceded 100+ pt totals in 16 of their last 18 games in which Kevin Martin appeared in.

Thats not even mentioning the fact that their opponent Portland is 5-2 to Over at an avg of 202.5 pts their last 7 games, and further has already played out an Over result vs Sacramento since the AS break. I'm not saying I'd have expected a 210-anything here, but 205.5? 207.0->208.5 yes, so it's no suprise in very short order this line has already hit 206.0 and I wouldn't expect it to halt there.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
All my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores. Any game involving Miami since the AS break has been ignored.

But, these 2 teams share Jekyll & Hyde traits. First, the home team...


Sacramento

- is U/O 14-8_ at an avg of 202.0 pts, _6-16 ATS as a Fav this season
- is U/O 16-24 at an avg of 203.6 pts, 26-14 ATS as a Dog this season

- is U/O 9-3_ at an avg of 201.0 pts, 2-10 ATS as a Fav vs the West
- is U/O 6-17 at an avg of 209.3 pts, 14-9 ATS as a Dog vs the West


- is U/O 7-1 at an avg of 196.8 pts as a Fav vs Western teams with at least 6 road wins on the season

- is U/O 2-2 at an avg of 209.2 pts as a Fav vs Western teams with 5 or less road wins on the season


- is U/O 4-0 at an avg of 196.0 pts, 1-3 ATS as a Fav & off 2-3 days rest vs the West

- is U/O 0-4 at an avg of 213.0 pts, 3-1 ATS as a Dog & off 2-3 days rest vs the West

This Jekyll & Hyde fault-line running through Suckramento's side & total results couldn't be any clearer, could it?


Portland

My season stats for Portland start with their Dec 30th game vs Dallas, which broke an 0-8 ATS run (their longest of the season) and quickly ushered in their team defining 17-1 run. What came before that I deem irrelevant for my considerations.

- is U/O 19-10 at an avg of 190.5 pts as a Dog (65.5% Under)
- is U/O 12-9_ at an avg of 189.6 pts as a Fav (57.1% Under)

- is U/O 20-9_ at an avg of 189.8 pts vs the West (68.9% Under)
- is U/O 11-10 at an avg of 190.5 pts vs the East (52.3% Under)

- is U/O 15-7 at an avg of 187.2 pts as a road Dog (68.1% Under)
- is U/O _3-2 at an avg of 191.8 pts as a road Fav

Portland's Jekyl and hyde fault-line isn't as nearly pronounced as Suckramentos is, but it's still noticable both as a Fav/Dog & whether they're facing a Western or Eastern team.

- is U/O 10-2 at an avg of 186.0 pts off an ATS win as a Fav

- is U/O 4-1 at an avg of 180.8 pts off a road win then playing on the road, when that next road game is the 3rd game (or more) of a road trip.


Recent History

Ever since Portland left behind their horror 05-06 season, these 2 teams are 5-1 to Under at an avg of 188.6 pts their last 6 meetings, with Portland not once having topped 100 pts (avg 92.0/game). The sole Over result came with both teams off 5 days rest and (1) it still only went over by 4 pts & (2) it still didn't top 200 pts, as none of their other 5 meetings during this time have either.



Anyone paying attention by now should realise Suckramento as a Fav is a millstone around the neck of this total, despite the welter of Over stats coming from their corner I presented initially. I've yet to know where this line ends up amongst other realities so I'm not committed to this yet, but it's likely I'll be on the Under.
 
Last edited:
Thanks, MP, but I dont like the fact it's since dropped from 206.0 to 205.0. Those realising what's working for under lept too soon, imo.
 
good info BC, would be great if you'd post your final decision, I guess it'll be 5-10 mins before the even, right? BOL
 
I really like the thinking on these, fellas. I'm scared of the Kings refusal to play defense, but I put the remainder of my bm account (bout .7 unit) on the under in phoenix at 238.5 yesterday.
 
Thanks, guys.

Suckramento has Toronto at home, and a h/a series with Memphis coming up within the next 10 days, and as long as Bosh is still out for TOR, Sac should be a Fav for all 3 games. I'd give them a minimum of 2 Unders through this game vs Por & those 3 (max. of 3, they're obviously likely to post at least 1 Over), so there's essentially an informal chase going on here (conversely, I simply don't see them "automatically" bucking the season trends I noted to deliver 4 straight Overs. They have some tough contests inbetween these games - PHX, GDS, SAS, HOU - that should lead to at least a couple of look past efforts vs TOR & MEM, irrespective of the result tonight).
 
trying to get a clearer read on this game....

first thought when i saw the line ....under

joel prizz has a fucked up foot that is black and blue .

maybe he cant move and is a detriment on defense .

maybe he cant move and is taken out forcing portland to play smaller
and thus playing a more up and down game.....

sacramento is on a major over run { hello clippers double ot game }
and has been involved in games with totals hitting these numbers recently..

227 , 214 , 222 , 229 , 221 , 240 , 193 , 205 ,226 , 231 [ot but over in regulation by 16]

i like portland's sometimes ugly , dirty , clunky , cant hit a jumpshot
offense when trusting them with an under play but come on sac is the
town whore who's vagina is open for every one and then even more
people after that ....

versus a similar no defense good offensive home team milwaukee we got
a total of 197 that hit 204 .

maybe sac shouldnt be given as much respect as gsw { port/gs 211}
but i thought this number was a little low tonight...

it's not like james jones is still out leaving jarret jack and outlaw open to
hoist ill advised late in the shot clock jumpers.....

good luck on the play but i feel we're being cheated of some points here .

hoping a fatigue road wearyish time zone fucks with your equilibrium
causing your body to be in distress and not act accordingly brouhaha
takes over and works for you tonight because i cant trust sac to play
any sort of defensive game right now .....

with that being said it'll prolly be 102- 96 .

good luck betcrimes i know you'll get into the groove soon . hope it's tonight...
 
but come on sac is the town whore who's vagina is open for every one and then even more after that ....
Click to expand...

Sac is 7-1 to under as a Fav vs Western teams with 6 road wins or more this season. Seems that vagina tightens (or dries) up under certain conditions.

versus a similar no defense good offensive home team milwaukee we gota total of 197 that hit 204
Click to expand...

Portland was a Dog for that game, but was playing an eastern team. They're a Dog playing a Western team here. The stats provide the basis to observe, thats a big difference.

i feel we're being cheated of some points here
Click to expand...

and looking around various places, I see the Over in this game is extremely popular - put the 2 together with the fact Sac has been over crazy recently, and doesnt it give you pause to think?

good luck betcrimes i know you'll get into the groove soon
Click to expand...

You missed my winner yesterday, spock?
icon12.gif
 
i initially liked the over. not so sure anymore. might tail you. convince me any further? i need a winna.
 
it was a slow pace. through most of 1st. then they scored like 15 last minute and half. 61 pt 1st. we should have one 40 pt quarter comin up. 2nd or 4th. maybe two.
 
yea 41 pt 2nd. thanks betcrimes. only reason why portland still in game 6-10 from three. i on sacramento for game too. so i'm not sweating. great chance to win both. decent chance of split. low chance of losing both. let's get this BC. another 40 pt quarter in 4th. might even be the third.
 
It's Been A Rough Few Weeks. Glad I'm Gonna Cash Sac And Under. Need Gsw Under As Well.
 
what a f*ckin great play. i rode with ya and doubled up on it at half. you absolutely had this one on point.
 
jimbo - whenever I win the result always lines up with the pre-posted stats. Its those damn losses which refuse to toe the stat line
icon7.gif
:cheers:
 
That wasn't just a win...that was a great win...when you beat a number by that many points..awesome job.
 
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