CENTRAL FLORIDA
UCF comes into Happy Valley looking to win vs BCS conference team for 3rd time in last 15 games, having lost at Ohio St 16-31 (+18’) and home vs Mizzou 16-21 (-2).
It should be noted they faced Braxton Miller who ran the ball a season high 27 times for 160y who is a tough matchup for just about everybody. Vs James Franklin they were able to sack him 5x. They don’t face much of a mobile QB this week.
UCF Defense
It’s hard to take much from the 2013 games UCF has only beat Akron and FIU. UCF did lose the majority of their sacks from ‘12 and are breaking in some new starters. But they do have experience. First time starter and All CUSA Fr DE Deion Green plyaed in 12 last year and has 2 sacks this season. Also first time starter DT Demetris Anderson played in 12 games at WMU before transferring here. LB Troy Gray started 9 in 2011. So the new guys in the front 7 are not completely green.
UCF does have two new starters at CB. They are really high on rFr Jacoby Glenn, but admittedly he will have a big challenge this week. He has 3 pbus and 6 tkls already this year. Jordan Ozerities only started 4 career games (including 2 this year), but was all Frosh CUSA in 2011 and registered 6 tkls at Ohio St last year. Still the CB position is a little bit of an unknown commodity with two new full time starters. The safety position is solid, they shifted former CB starter Brandon Alexander to FS (led with 9 pbus ‘12) and Jr Clayton Geathers has started every game of his UCF career (was #2 tklr ‘12). About the move to safety Alexander said this in fall camp:
“I feel way more comfortable at safety,” Alexander said. “I can go back to corner, this is [coaches] moving pieces everywhere, and I feel [very] comfortable.”
That move has allowed UCF to get their best 4 DBs on the field.
For the new guys sprinkled in the DL, LB and DB there are 1-2 experienced and productive guys in each of those units as well.
UCF Offense
The OL is solid, but one potential concern is at LT. Torrian Wilson is 2x All CUSA and he was injured vs FIU, he tweated he was ok, but status is unknown officially. The OL would likely shift guys around without Wilson and every indication is the personnel is comfortable playing out of position, but naturally we’d like Wilson to be a go.
Bortles was a 63% – 3000y and 25-7 QB last year and even as a frosh he was 68% for about 1000y and 6-3. He hasn’t thrown an INT in 9 games. Last year vs tOSU and Mizzou he went 54 of 84 for 516y and a 4-1 ratio. He did struggle with compl % in two games vs Tulsa’s very good 2012 D, but he did have 3 TDs and 0 INTs in those games. Bortles won’t beat you with his legs, but he will run. He ran for 80y vs Ball in the bowl and ran for 60 in the ECU and one of the Tulsa games as well.
RB Storm Johnson pretty much has the job to himself this year after filling in for injured Murray last year. In 2012 Johnson ran for 75y (6.25) vs tOSU and also 93y (6.2) vs Mizzou. He hasn’t been asked to do a whole lot this year, but has carried for 188 (4.9) and 5 TDs.
UCF has receivers a plenty, they spread it around a bunch. Hall, Perriman, Worton, Godfrey (former QB) are all good WRs for them and last year they threw to RB Murray a good bit so I assume Johnson would be a guy to do that as well (4 rec on the year so far).
A Look at Penn State
Hackenberg’s start to the year has been good for a frosh. Kid is good, but it has been vs Syracuse and Eastern Michigan. He did go 22 of 31 – 278, 2-2 vs Cuse and then 22 of 33 – 311, 1-1 vs E Michigan. NW’s experienced QB tandem passed for 81% 375 yards and a 4-0 ratio and the Cats also racked up 581 total yards on the Orange, so we aren't talking all world defenses here. E Michigan is E Michigan, they aren’t good and rarely have been. So it is hard to give much credit for strong showings vs them. As expected with a tr fr QB, he has thrown 3 INTs (McGloin 5 INT all of 2012) and has been sacked 7x (PSU only allowed 1.75 sacks pg last year). We know he is good, but he is also learning and going to make mistakes. UCF D is a big step up for him.
PSU is RB by committee. O’Brien wasn’t happy with their production vs Cuse where Zwinak was given nearly all the carries, but last week they got Belton involved w/ 100y and rFr Lynch got over 100 too (albeit vs EM).
TEs were 3 of the top 5 receivers in 2012, but they’ve been banged up this year, so not much TE production in passing game. What can you say about Allen Robinson? He’s by far the best in the B1G and among the best in the nation. It’s mostly just Robinson and Felder, but several guys rotate in they throw to. TE Lehman is out for year.
It doesn’t sound like O’Brien is completely happy with his OL. I know O’Brien seems to like Smith at LT and Urschel is All Big Ten at RG. Howle at C has only started 3 career games and RT Gilliam was a TE last year, so 2 career starts on OL. They’ve given up 7 sacks vs Cuse and EMich so far and vs Cuse two leading RBs only rushed for 2.5 and 3.2 ypc. They improved the rushing production a lot last week, but again, it was just E Mich. Overall I'd say there is some cause for concern here for the Nits.
The Penn State D is something they will hang their hat on again. DE Barnes is a know All Big Ten commodity and DT Jones is having a real big impact this year, he’s got 18 tkls and 5 tfl so far. At LB they are optimistic to get Hull back this week and MLB Glenn Carson has been your typical Penn State MLB, very solid and consistent play. And Wartman is going to be a playmaker. The D has 5 sacks so far this year.
The area that the Penn St D can be had is the secondary, specifically CB. They moved Trevor Williams from WR to CB in the spring. He did have a key INT vs Cuse, but lacks much experience. The other CB, Jordan Lucas, is also starting for first time this year. They moved Amos to S. They appear solid at safety. The entire 2 deep at CB is Soph or true Fr, so if they go nickel not only will newbies Williams and Lucas be on the field, but the NB isn’t going to be bringing much experience to the plate either.
Conclusion
This is going to be a tough game, tough for both teams. UCF has enough on offense to really challenge Penn St D in a way they are not typically tested outside of the top of the Big Ten. UCF is going to come in here and compete just as well as a team like Wisconsin or Nebraska would in my mind. They certainly have a chance at the win. How they handle the PSU front 7 is going to be, but I think they can run the ball a bit on them. Syracuse is not a good running team and EM isn’t going to run on anybody from the Big Ten. So the rush D stats are skewed a little there. Penn State certainly looks vulnerable in the secondary and UCF has an experienced QB and WRs to exploit it.
For UCF D to have success they need to confuse Hackenberg and keep having him make some mistakes. At the rate that Penn St is allowing sacks, along with the INTs he has thrown coupled with UCF’s reputation on D that would seem possible. UCF held Marshall to their 2nd lowest yardage output last year and also shut down Ball St in the bowl. Not apples-to-apples to a team like PSU, but UCF has always been capable of playing good D, let’s hope it happens again.
Penn St has started each game this year very slow. Last week vs EM they did a majority of their damage late 3rd and 4th qrts when the EM D had no gas left.
I’d rather get a full TD here, but I think 6 is still good value on UCF (I can't bet until Sat morning though). PSU homefield advantage is something, but the games are still not sell outs, atleast there were a lot of empty seats last week, it was just E Mich. I doubt that a team like UCF will be reason enough to get it substantially fuller than last week. UCF has played in a packed house in Columbus. They should be ready.
