NCAA Football Parlay Plays For Saturday
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, October 24 at noon ET (Big Ten Network) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
Coaching & Recruiting
Oddsmakers have Michigan State favored by double digits.
Blindly speaking, such a high spread seems reasonable because, well, Rutgers is Rutgers and one is used to expecting the Scarlet Knights to lose big.
But this expectation is substantiated less and less in multiple respects.
In terms of recruiting, the large gap in recruiting rankings that existed between the Spartans and Scarlet Knights is growing narrower and is even trending in the latter’s favor.
As for coaching, both teams feature new staff members. But Rutgers enjoys continuity in key components. Its head coach, Greg Schiano, and defensive coordinator Robb Smith have already been coaching at Rutgers for a number of years.
In contrast, Michigan State loses defensive continuity with its new incoming coaching staff. There still needs to be a lot installed beyond the fundamental transition from a mostly 4-3 defense to more of a 3-4 one.
Rutgers Run Offense vs. Michigan State Run Defense
The Spartans also lose significant ability, experience, and leadership in its front seven, which formed the strength of its defense last year.
Their defensive line loses three starters in Kenny Willekes, Raequan Wiliams, and Mike Panasiuk. They also miss their top linebacker, Joe Bachie, who had directed the middle of the field in each of the past three years.
Those four players are irreplaceable. So Michigan State no longer has the pieces that had once made its run defense elite and actually becomes vulnerable in this respect as unproven youth borne of depreciated recruiting looks to step up.
In turn, the run game will be a strength for Rutgers thanks to the return of Preseason All-Big Ten fourth-teamer Isaih Pacheco. His highlight last year was a 100-yard effort on the ground against Penn State.
Comparing Quarterbacks
Michigan State has yet to determine a starting quarterback.
This lack of decision is worrisome because it means that nobody has separated himself from Rocky Lombardi.
In his career, Lombardi has completed 42.9 percent of his passes.
In 2018, Lombardi started against Rutgers and completed only 44.2 percent of his passes en route to a shockingly narrow, 14-10 victory against a much more heavily dogged Rutgers.
With Lombardi or a quarterback of comparable quality, we get the same offensive ineptitude as in 2018 without the quality on defense.
Defensively, Rutgers is focused on stopping the run. It likes to employ press coverage and to keep its safeties close to the line of scrimmage.
Lombardi’s best bet is to hand the ball off to Elijah Collins. But the Scarlet Knights will key in on him — as it likes to key in on the opposing ground game — without having to worry about Lombardi making them pay. They benefit in this respect from returning seven linebackers from 2019, including the team’s top two leading tacklers.
As for Rutgers, the starting job at quarterback likewise remains up in the air.
Expect an approach filled with short passes. Offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson will make this year’s Rutgers squad up-tempo and implement more spread formations.
Among the seven starters that the Spartans lost from last year’s defense, Josiah Scott’s departure will be felt in the secondary, which was shaky especially without him.
When teams needed to pass, they could pick above all on anybody besides Scott. So the 2020 fourth round draft pick's departure means more options for Rutgers’ quarterback.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana
Penn State Pass Defense
Last year, Penn State ranked 100 in pass defense.
Opposing quarterbacks were repeatedly able to gash it for 300-yard games.
Three examples include Minnesota’s quarterback, who killed the Nittany Lions with slants, Indiana’s, who likewise approached 400 yards, and Memphis’, who passed for 479 yards.
One glaring problem in the Nittany Lion secondary was its poor communication.
Blown coverages were too common, which means that opposing pass attacks were able to accrue a high number of quick and easy touchdowns.
Given the amount of time that players have had off and given their lack of opportunities to practice, I can’t imagine Penn State improving in this fundamental respect before its season opener.
So these COVID-induced circumstances will ensure lack of chemistry in the secondary.
Indiana Pass Attack vs. Penn State Secondary
When Indiana accrued 371 passing yards last year against Penn State, it did so with its backup quarterback, Peyton Ramsey, who completed 31 of 41 pass attempts.
Michael Penix Jr. returns at quarterback for Indiana. He is known for having a much stronger arm. He’s also efficient — he had completed 68.8 percent of his passes in 160 attempts.
One threat for Penix Jr. to throw to will be Ty Fryfogle, who flashes pretty good speed and had his longest reception of the year against Penn State.
But All-Big Ten second-teamer Whop Philyor is the team’s best option at wide receiver.
His 40-yard dash shows superb speed, which helps explain why he’s always capable of making big plays. His hip usage gives him flexibility and smoothness in his route-running.
After veteran Tariq Castro-Fields, question marks abound in Penn State’s secondary. Who will fill the gaps created by the departure of multiple veterans?
Of course, Castro-Fields was himself a question mark last year as he was part of Penn State’s problem in pass defense.
Penn State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Like Indiana, Penn State benefits from returning ability in its passing game.
Sean Clifford returns at quarterback after throwing for 23 touchdowns to seven interceptions last year.
He benefits from having his second- and third-leading pass-catchers return, tight end Pat Freiermuth and wide receiver Jahan Dotson.
After those two known quantities, there are so many breakout candidates.
One candidate is Daniel George, who was part of Penn State’s longest ever play from scrimmage thanks to a nice double move.
Another candidate is Cam Sullivan-Brown, who shares Dotson’s reputation for smooth route-running.
Penn State will put up points against a Hoosier secondary that suffers a steep drop off after its top cornerback.
Parlay Verdict
Defenses — even expectedly stout ones — have notoriously struggled this season, leading to absurd numbers of “over” plays in general. In Week 6, for example, the “over” was 13-1 in SEC and ACC games.
So expect missed assignments and blown coverages — Penn State’s secondary, in particular, were characterized by these mishaps even last year when they were better, had more experience, and were well-seasoned.
Both offenses have the weapons in the passing game to move downfield in a hurry.
For similar reasoning, I lean “over” for Rutgers with its new spread offense and Michigan State.
But with conservative passing and questions at quarterback, I want to stay away from the total in that game.
Michigan State lacks the weapons to separate itself from Rutgers and it no longer has the defense that allowed it to sneak by Rutgers in 2018.
Best Bet: Parlay Rutgers +13.5 (-108) + Penn State/Indiana Over 59 (-108) at Heritage at +271 Odds
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, October 24 at noon ET (Big Ten Network) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
Coaching & Recruiting
Oddsmakers have Michigan State favored by double digits.
Blindly speaking, such a high spread seems reasonable because, well, Rutgers is Rutgers and one is used to expecting the Scarlet Knights to lose big.
But this expectation is substantiated less and less in multiple respects.
In terms of recruiting, the large gap in recruiting rankings that existed between the Spartans and Scarlet Knights is growing narrower and is even trending in the latter’s favor.
As for coaching, both teams feature new staff members. But Rutgers enjoys continuity in key components. Its head coach, Greg Schiano, and defensive coordinator Robb Smith have already been coaching at Rutgers for a number of years.
In contrast, Michigan State loses defensive continuity with its new incoming coaching staff. There still needs to be a lot installed beyond the fundamental transition from a mostly 4-3 defense to more of a 3-4 one.
Rutgers Run Offense vs. Michigan State Run Defense
The Spartans also lose significant ability, experience, and leadership in its front seven, which formed the strength of its defense last year.
Their defensive line loses three starters in Kenny Willekes, Raequan Wiliams, and Mike Panasiuk. They also miss their top linebacker, Joe Bachie, who had directed the middle of the field in each of the past three years.
Those four players are irreplaceable. So Michigan State no longer has the pieces that had once made its run defense elite and actually becomes vulnerable in this respect as unproven youth borne of depreciated recruiting looks to step up.
In turn, the run game will be a strength for Rutgers thanks to the return of Preseason All-Big Ten fourth-teamer Isaih Pacheco. His highlight last year was a 100-yard effort on the ground against Penn State.
Comparing Quarterbacks
Michigan State has yet to determine a starting quarterback.
This lack of decision is worrisome because it means that nobody has separated himself from Rocky Lombardi.
In his career, Lombardi has completed 42.9 percent of his passes.
In 2018, Lombardi started against Rutgers and completed only 44.2 percent of his passes en route to a shockingly narrow, 14-10 victory against a much more heavily dogged Rutgers.
With Lombardi or a quarterback of comparable quality, we get the same offensive ineptitude as in 2018 without the quality on defense.
Defensively, Rutgers is focused on stopping the run. It likes to employ press coverage and to keep its safeties close to the line of scrimmage.
Lombardi’s best bet is to hand the ball off to Elijah Collins. But the Scarlet Knights will key in on him — as it likes to key in on the opposing ground game — without having to worry about Lombardi making them pay. They benefit in this respect from returning seven linebackers from 2019, including the team’s top two leading tacklers.
As for Rutgers, the starting job at quarterback likewise remains up in the air.
Expect an approach filled with short passes. Offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson will make this year’s Rutgers squad up-tempo and implement more spread formations.
Among the seven starters that the Spartans lost from last year’s defense, Josiah Scott’s departure will be felt in the secondary, which was shaky especially without him.
When teams needed to pass, they could pick above all on anybody besides Scott. So the 2020 fourth round draft pick's departure means more options for Rutgers’ quarterback.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana
Penn State Pass Defense
Last year, Penn State ranked 100 in pass defense.
Opposing quarterbacks were repeatedly able to gash it for 300-yard games.
Three examples include Minnesota’s quarterback, who killed the Nittany Lions with slants, Indiana’s, who likewise approached 400 yards, and Memphis’, who passed for 479 yards.
One glaring problem in the Nittany Lion secondary was its poor communication.
Blown coverages were too common, which means that opposing pass attacks were able to accrue a high number of quick and easy touchdowns.
Given the amount of time that players have had off and given their lack of opportunities to practice, I can’t imagine Penn State improving in this fundamental respect before its season opener.
So these COVID-induced circumstances will ensure lack of chemistry in the secondary.
Indiana Pass Attack vs. Penn State Secondary
When Indiana accrued 371 passing yards last year against Penn State, it did so with its backup quarterback, Peyton Ramsey, who completed 31 of 41 pass attempts.
Michael Penix Jr. returns at quarterback for Indiana. He is known for having a much stronger arm. He’s also efficient — he had completed 68.8 percent of his passes in 160 attempts.
One threat for Penix Jr. to throw to will be Ty Fryfogle, who flashes pretty good speed and had his longest reception of the year against Penn State.
But All-Big Ten second-teamer Whop Philyor is the team’s best option at wide receiver.
His 40-yard dash shows superb speed, which helps explain why he’s always capable of making big plays. His hip usage gives him flexibility and smoothness in his route-running.
After veteran Tariq Castro-Fields, question marks abound in Penn State’s secondary. Who will fill the gaps created by the departure of multiple veterans?
Of course, Castro-Fields was himself a question mark last year as he was part of Penn State’s problem in pass defense.
Penn State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Like Indiana, Penn State benefits from returning ability in its passing game.
Sean Clifford returns at quarterback after throwing for 23 touchdowns to seven interceptions last year.
He benefits from having his second- and third-leading pass-catchers return, tight end Pat Freiermuth and wide receiver Jahan Dotson.
After those two known quantities, there are so many breakout candidates.
One candidate is Daniel George, who was part of Penn State’s longest ever play from scrimmage thanks to a nice double move.
Another candidate is Cam Sullivan-Brown, who shares Dotson’s reputation for smooth route-running.
Penn State will put up points against a Hoosier secondary that suffers a steep drop off after its top cornerback.
Parlay Verdict
Defenses — even expectedly stout ones — have notoriously struggled this season, leading to absurd numbers of “over” plays in general. In Week 6, for example, the “over” was 13-1 in SEC and ACC games.
So expect missed assignments and blown coverages — Penn State’s secondary, in particular, were characterized by these mishaps even last year when they were better, had more experience, and were well-seasoned.
Both offenses have the weapons in the passing game to move downfield in a hurry.
For similar reasoning, I lean “over” for Rutgers with its new spread offense and Michigan State.
But with conservative passing and questions at quarterback, I want to stay away from the total in that game.
Michigan State lacks the weapons to separate itself from Rutgers and it no longer has the defense that allowed it to sneak by Rutgers in 2018.
Best Bet: Parlay Rutgers +13.5 (-108) + Penn State/Indiana Over 59 (-108) at Heritage at +271 Odds
we all know it will be a blowout anyways...
