Rugby World Cup - Quarters/Semis/Final Thoughts/Bets

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
New Zealand (-13.5) vs France

French rugby + knockout rugby = the purest lottery that exists in any sport. Benefitting the ABs is the fact they played France in 2 internationals in France late last year, smashing them once and winning easily a closer 2nd game, where France played negative bullshit to keep the score down. Their present team is no better than the one who the AB's faced for those games, thou this is obviously a different setting. At best IMO the ATS is up in the air, but this AB side isn't about to be ambushed in the quarters by this year's Frog vintage. Tough luck selling off a quarter final venue to an outside country, eh boyos.

Not looking to bet this ATS.



Australia (-11.5) vs England

The Wallabies losing David Lyons, along with the questionable presence of Larkham, has suddenly made this game a lot more interesting. Still don't give the Poms a shit-show-in-hell of winning, but ATS things just got a lot uglier. Would expect Aussie to end up winning around the spread number, by 9-15 points (esp. if Larkham doesn't play).

Not looking to bet this ATS.



South Africa (-33.5) vs Fiji

From the early reports I've heard, Nicky Little will be out for this clash - as if the game wasn't already easy enough for the Boks. The Fijians have a saying for their efforts in rugby games; either they put forward a "rowing the boat" effort, or a "sitting under a palm tree" effort. Without Little there to steer them around the park, this game could easily get away from them early, leading to a "sitting under a plam tree" effort. Can see the Boks pounding these guys by 40-50 (think of their effort against Samoa, 59-7).

Looking strongly at the Boks ATS.



Argentina (-13.5) vs Scotland

No question about what to expect from the Scots - dour bullshit that isnt worth being paid to go and see. Argentina, however, will find this opponent a lot more of a niggly one than Ireland ever was. Beating a bad Celtic team by 15 pts has inflated this line. An Argentinian SU win in a non-ATS cover is my expectation (Argies by 8-14).

Not looking to bet this ATS.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

I will be considering other bets, esp. half-full doubles. I can see either Scotland or England managing a first half lead, to be then run down in the 2nd half by their opponents.
 
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1st bet - England/Australia half-full double (+700)

Pretty hard to see any fav losing SU in these quarters, but past experience says not every game will be one-way traffic, which means the Dog/Fav half-full option offers some value in a couple of these games from my perspective. This first QF is one of those games where the Dog could hang around and make things interesting for 60 minutes (or even longer). Obviously just a small bet.
 
emkee, if I win my bet, I think you'll win yours. If Aussie leads from start to finish to bury mine, I think you'll be struggling. BOL:cheers:
 
No bets for me on the 2nd game this morning, but if someone told me the French had input regarding who was made the ref for that game, it would not come as a suprise. Aside from any other decision, that yellow card turned the game, and it was a shocker for this level of rugby.
 
2nd bet - South Africa -34.5

The Boks must be laughing, but the favour this first days results have done for those of us who like the Boks laying the points is they'll be extra keen not to be upset. The Boks should suffocate Fiji without Little at flyhalf. I'd be suprised if Fiji get more than 7-10 points, and believe SAF should top 50.

One of those games where the more Fiji scores, its only because the Boks have managed to score so much more: 45-3.. 50-7.. 55-10.. 63-14
 
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Unbelievable result in Cardiff. The refereeing was shocking, have a lot of question marks about this one...

Terrible...
 
50213.accred.jpg
Referee

Wayne Barnes

Date of birth: 20 apr 1979
Union: England

Touch judges

50194.accred.jpg
Tony Spreadbury

50217.accred.jpg
Jonathan Kaplan

In a game of this importance, why wasn't either vastly more experienced touch judge the man in the middle, before no-name noddy Barnes? thats the disgrace.
 
Yeah, this match was fixed. Just saw tape. A total fix job....take it to the bank.

Upset of 2007, for sure.....ABs going down in a fix.
 
clay - if you're younger than I am, you shouldn't be reffing a Rugby World Cup quarter final. You think FIFA allows someone noddy nobody's age anywhere near a Soccer World Cup playoff game?
 
LOL - someone made a good point on Radio Sport, that if NZ wasn't hosting the next WC, then the ABs would have to play qualifying matches since they bowed out before the semis.
 
My second biggest non-American-sport bet of the year, only behind Australia +12.5 at Melbourne. South Africa will have Fiji at the set pieces, and unlike the French who kept playing despite starved of the ball, I see Fiji imploding when South Africa subject them to the same experience. By my math the Boks should be good for at least 1 try every 10 minutes minimum on balance (40 points plus, say 70% coverted, another 10-12 points) for a a starting total of 50. They put 59 on Samoa, and that as after a very slow first 30 minutes, and in my book, Fiji, Tonga and Samoa are basically all interchangable (Samoa suffered in their later matches esp. due to injuries, hence their being the worst performed of the 3. I think even Samoa could have given Wales a run for their money). Of course Tonga never faced the full Bok side on the paddock, even after the game changing replacements. Thinking that game's score - 30-25 - is any guide for this game to me is a mistake. I look more to the Samoan game because it was the Bok's first of the tournament, and they'd already seen the way New Zealand had dismantled Italy, and obviously had the intention for starting the tournament the same way (with a bang) themselves (anything the ABs can do...). Now, again, they've seen New Zealand (& Australia) start the knockout games with a bang, but the wrong kind of bang. I can see those results wiping away any taking-things-for-granted feelings that existed for them regarding this encounter, and honing their intentions about putting the sword in.

Theres no doubt in my mind SAF can cover this line comfortably. The first half should decide how easy it will be. If they don't take the 30 mins to get into the game like they did vs Samoa, they'll trounce Fiji. If Fiji are completely out of the game by the half (and I can see the Boks ahead by the spread in the best possible first half scenario I can come up with - 5 converted tries:35-0 - 5 tries/4 Cons/1 Pen:36-0) then they'll simply quit being "serious" on defense in the second half (the Bok forward mauling and pick-and-go should suck the life out of them) and will end up conceding tries for the sake of looking to score points any way they can (ie, large risks) themselves.

Fiji get a break or 2 that helps their heads stay in the game in the opening quarter, then it'll be the back end of the game, the final 30 mins, where the spread will be decided. The Boks should, even in the worst instance, be ahead by 20 with 20 to go with Fiji all tackled out, then its a matter of luck. Which is why I'm willing to lay such a large amount of points. Even in my worst case scenario, I think it's a 50-50 proposition. But NZ and AUS dipping out on the first day of the knockout stage I think sets the Boks up for a huge first half, where they, unlike the former 2 teams, dont fuck around in nailing their opponent. I could lay the points for the first half, but IMO if the Boks cover that 1st half line, it'll be because they've had a great half, and will have basically set up the full game cover. I can see the scenario where Fiji score some fluke points, and imo that could hurt the halftime spread, but where its far less likely to hurt the fulltime spread (Fiji's energy reserves will obviously suffer in the 2nd half, no matter what kind of first half the Boks have had). I can see a 10 minute spell where the Boks score 3-4 tries bang-bang-bang (like they did to put away Tonga's threat), and that's more likely to come when Fiji are out of gas, a time that doesnt involve the first half spread.

One final note. Percy fucking Montgomery better have his kicking boots on.
 
Nicky Little's absence is going to be huge for the Flying Fijians - for all their flair on attack, the fact remains it is all runs through him

GL BC hope you nail it.
 
Well, it seems my read of this one was simply wrong. Fiji didn't miss Little nearly as much as I thought (certainly didnt give them 20 points), and their forwards weren't lacking either. The fact South Africa couldn't put these guys to the sword says, to me, this title is wide open. Boks no heavy favs in my book after this result.

This caps a negative recent run of results for me, and coming as they do in the middle of having to sell one place and move to another, means I'll be taking a break until this process is done with.
 
My final bet for awhile is France to win the World Cup at +175.

The reason I've taken them now, when I realise parlaying them to beat England and then beat the expected South Africa in the final would return more, is because the Boks performance in the quarters has shored up my belief Argentina can knock them over in the semis. In that instance, France would be overwhelming favs and the ability to hedge would be there if needed. And if the Argies don't manage such a feat, I still feel France can take the Boks. Of any side who hasn't won the Cup, France is easily the most deserving nation whose name is absent. Australia were far more pitiful than New Zealand was, so while England "looked good", to me thats relative to France's achievment. France dealt to the Poms in pre-tournament games (both home and away), and if I wasn't taking a break I'd lay the points for their semi. This will be France's 4th semi-final (previously in '87, '95, '99) and potentially 3rd final. To me, they've paid their dues.

IMO, the semi & final results will go down 2 paths

(1) Fav France cover, Fav Boks cover -> Dog France win final SU

(2) Fav France cover, Dog Argies win SU -> Fav France win final SU (ATS?)
 
Thanks clay, TM.

France beat England 22-9 in France just before the WC, and that was with JW playing. As I stated, of the opposing performances each team faced in winning in an upset, Australia offered nothing compared to the ABs. The forward effort that France had to defend and overcome was "10 times" as strong as the one England had to overcome, and in rugby, the forward battle is the crux.

And I don't fear France having a letdown a la '99. The difference between then and now is their next opponent. This present England team couldn't do up the bootlaces of that '99 Cup winning Wallabie side. France had 2 massive hurdles to overcome in a row in 99, that was 1 too many. After beating the ABs, they have 1 more massive hurdle to overcome, but that isnt England, thats (likely) South Africa, and they havent got them up next. England's backline is all but garbage. Tonga showed them up, even Oz did in scoring that game's only try. These French forwards will do no worse than gain parity with England IMO, which leaves the game decided by the backs. I personally believe you'll see more French flair than what they allowed themselves vs the ABs (and when they had to vs NZ, that flair scored the game winning try). That ability will get them across the line, in front of home support that didnt exist at Cardiff. I believe France can win by anything from 7-20. I'll call a 27-13 scoreline.

-------------------------------

Will consider backing France ATS just prior to gametime, and look at live betting as well, after a few good days following the SAF debacle.
 
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What an unbelievable game. England did basically nothing after the opening minute until 6 minutes were left, and they win the game. 70 odd minutes of almost total French domination, domination murdered by such stupid decision taking it boggles the mind. So much possession in the English 22 wasted by poorly set up and haphazard drop goal attempts, when simply keeping the ball in hand would've led to either penalties coming or the English defense cracking. France kicked way too much, andgot too impatient to increase their lead which brought on the stupid calls and really, the ending that was was telegraphed as coming from about 15-20 mins out. I bailed a share of my French future on the English ml at that point, so its not an all black (excuse the pun) day for me.

At this point I have to say wtf do I know - if France can play so stupidly why can't the Springboks?, if they even make the final. Dumb rugby is making for these upsets: ABs, even with the ref, authored their own demise with stupid 50-50 passes and impatience. France followed suit with stupid in-play & drop goal kicks inside the English 22. England mashed Oz's forwards, probably the only "legitmate" upset so far. What next? South Africa going to have Montgomery kick 1/6? get a man sent off 5 mins in vs the Argies?
 
It looks like the Pumas may win the whole enchilada.

Why?

No one sees it coming.....at least "not many" see it coming.

Methinks I'll bet Pumas ML tomorrow....but got to think about it before any commitment.

Cheers
 
clay, I'd love to see it but then England would have a real chance of winning it all. I have to think the Boks couldnt have a 36-0 scoreline turned around on them in the space of 2-4 weeks, and the last thing I want to see is England be the first team to defend the Cup, when their back play not only doesnt exist, but is so fucking awful (outside of 1-off Robinson) as to make me puke. The Boks have a backline, even Montgomery can play in that regard.

I'll have to cheer the Boks.
 
The main difference (and a very big one at that) between the 36-0 scoreline and a potential final between the two teams is the number 10 for England..

However I don't see the Pumas beating the Boks on Sunday. Laying 9.5 points however is a different matter.

Boks v Poms final IMO.
 
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So far this RWC '07, got to believe that The Man absolutely fleeced the public on the AB future (I was one who got reamed, and it "still" hurts).

Also got to believe that there is still HUGE pending jack on the 'Bok future, especially considering their draw.

To me, there is ample reason for me to believe that refs will be "instructed" by the only thing that talks (MONEY) to make things very, very, very hard on the 'Boks.

Just some angles to consider.
 
I mean yeah, on paper, 'Boks beat Pumas 95% of the time given the scenario and stakes today.

'Boks much deeper.....plain and simple.

But also on paper, ain't no one beating the ABs. And for that matter, ain't no paper around that would put England in a final.

Makes me seriously think about Pumas ML tomorrow.
 
CCL Pumas have a clear advantage in terms of general kicking in open play and also in set shots for goal. Their tight 5 will be more than capable of hanging with the Boks 5 IMO as well.

That seems to be the trend this tournament, teams strong in scrummaging and kicking departments invariably have been doing well.
 
Pumas took an ass-whupping.

'Boks vs Poms.......got to figure 'Boks win with ease after seeing them just stomp Argentina-----who plays the same way England does.

The 'Bok backline will run riot all through England. Not even God, Jr can save England this time.
 
I have to agree clay. I realise Jonny didnt play last time, but the books can't set this line high enough. All the recent dog SU & ATS results have padded the books Cup profits to allow them to suffer through South Africa's waltz to the title, and still finish ahead.
 
Points start for the Final seems suspiciously shallow for my eyes.

Australia lost to England because they didnt have the forwards to gain parity up front, and by lacking such parity they couldn't effectively exploit having the better backline.

France lost to England not because they couldn't get forward parity, but because once they got that and more, absolutely stupid decision taking by their backs once they got go forward ball killed their dominance. As a post script, what an utter joke that Laporte has come out and said his tactics weren't to blame for the loss. Any suprise this loser is headed off to politics? spoken like a true politician.

- Australia had the backs (who, after all, scored that game's only try) but not the forwards.

- France had the forwards but proved they didnt have the backs.

- South Africa has the forwards to gain parity that Australia didnt. South Africa has the backs to effectively utilise such parity, which France proved they didn't.

That said, this spread telegraphs to me the books believe the Boks will be content to play tight & ugly all day with England, and woe is in store for anyone expecting the Boks to scores tries in spades, like they did vs the Argies. I remember betting no try to be scored when England and South Africa played each other in the 1999 WC (which they duly delivered), and got 50-1 for it. Nowhere near the odds for that option in this game, which simply gives another clue as to where the books "have their money". If the books saw a number of Bok tries, this spread would be 10/10.5 right off the bat.

As a statistical aside, no WC tournament has ever failed to have at least 1 Dog lead at halftime once the knockout stages begin, in meaningful knock out games (in other words, excluding the meaningless 3rd/4th playoff). So far in this tourney, every Fav has led at halftime in the meaningful knockout games. I'm presently eyeing the England/South Africa half/full-double as my bet for the final. Since it seems the books are in bed with England covering given my perceptions, for them to do so would mean at least being in the game at halftime (if they get down early, they simply dont have the backline game to play catch-up rugby needed to make for the backdoor moose = Bok cover).
 
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French coach Bernard Laporte, feted as a hero after France beat the hot favourites the All Blacks in the quarter-finals, is under investigation over financial dealings, weekly sports magazine L'Equipe claimed in its edition to be published on Saturday.

The 43-year-old, who is due to become a junior minister in the French government following France's World Cup third-place play-off against Argentina on Friday night, has, according to L'Equipe, been under investigation for a year by the national fraud squad (DNEF).

The paper claimed the DNEF is considering handing over evidence to the justice system after they allegedly found evidence of financial corruption on many fronts.

Among his alleged misdemeanours are presenting of false accounts, abuse of public funds, transfer of suspect funds, false, tax evasion and taking illegal cash payments.

Though Laporte, interviewed by the newspaper which claimed to know detailed information on his numerous financial affairs, did not deny the DNEF inquiries into his, he disputed corruption claims.

Laporte, whose team lost to England in the World Cup quarter-finals last Saturday, claimed there was little substance to the allegations.

"I know there will not be a lot in them (allegations)," he said. "In any case, it is the companies which are being investigated, not me personally."
French sports minister Roselyne Bachelot, who will be working with Laporte from Monday, did not want to comment on Friday's revelations while travelling to southern French town Nimes.

Government spokesman David Martinon said there was no reason to believe Laporte would not take up his new post.

"I am not aware of the matter," said Martinon. "But Bernard Laporte's nomination has already been made and there is no reason to go back on that decision."

Laporte came in for criticism at the start of the World Cup early last month when press reports claimed one of his companies was selling French shirts signed by him in violation of agreements with the French rugby federation.

Laporte's agent took complete responsibility for the error however.
However, this is not the first time that Laporte's business interests have aroused controversy.

There has been disquiet expressed over his interests in a casino and his many promotional contracts - including ham - with some accusing him of using the France job as a vehicle for his own financial gain.

He has also come under fire from within his camp this week with mercurial fly-half Frederic Michalak criticising him for making the French tactics too predictable.

"(Laporte) is a coach, not a friend," said Michalak on Wednesday.

"When you play rugby you are obliged to play the way the coach wants whether it pleases you or not.

"I don't always agree with what he says, but that's just the way it is."
 
England didnt lead at halftime = South Africa covered.

Can't complain, grabbed no try in match at halftime for +600, crazy odds imo considering what the match had looked like to that point, and the fact I equated this as a no try match in my previous post. That English effort in the corner just minutes into the 2nd half had me going, thou.
 
BC-

The ass in that avatar is "to die for."

Horrible final yesterday. Anti-climactic. 'Boks win a kicking contest. Next big rugby event, I guess, is Lions' tour of The Republic in '09, where I look for the Lions to take the same type of ass-whupping they took in NZ 2.5 years ago.
 
clay - its certainly off the charts on a female otherwise not "heifer like".

I agree with you about the final (the very basis of my ht bet), but the Boks did as the books projected, beat England at their own game, making for what seemed like a close game, but really wasn't. They stopped trying to score from, what looked to me, like 15-20 mins out, and simply played percentage bullshit (which is all they needed), while England couldn't do squat even when they got close, which made for a dull denouement. And to be frank, this tournament really didn't deserve any better a finish. The Stellenbosch rules can't be implemented soon enough as far as I'm concerned. I don't mind hard, tight rugby, but tedious crap has got to go.
 
Unfortunately the Sth African's resorted to England's level which made the final what it was

But at least we got the right result
 
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