RSMS NCAAF Week 5

RSMS9999

The Prodigy
Record 27-11-1 (+44.37 Units)
ATS 17-6-1 (+32.75 Units)
ATS 2H 0-1 (-1.65 Units)
ML 0-2 (-2.53 Units)
Totals 9-3 (+12.8 Units)
Team Totals 1-0(+3 Units)

Official Plays

Alabama Crimson Tide +3 -110 (3 Units)

Clemson Tigers -2.5 -110 (3 Units)

Mississippi State/South Carolina Under 42 -110 (4 Units)

Illinois/Penn State Under 48 -110 (8 Units)

Michigan State Spartans ML +260 (4 Units)
 
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Great record so far this year RSMS.

Thought I read you liked anything -4.5 or lower for Oregon. GL with plays, those two look good.
 
WEEK 3 Recap
5-3 (+8.40 Units)

Purdue 45 Minnesota 31
*W*Purdue Boilermakers -11.5 -110 (3 Units)
A little closer than what I would have liked but a win is a win. Was very important to get the good number obviously as they pushed out at 14. I thought Purdue would get about 50 and they did while Minnesota had more offensive success than anticipated. Looks like Purdue has another shitty D this year.

Illinois 27 Indiana 14
*W*Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 -100 (3 Units)
Still not sure how these teams came to be seen as "even". I am totally convinced that Illinois is for real this year and a threat to the Big 10. One of the Big 10's best squads shouldn't be less than a FG favorite vs. a shitty Indiana team. The Illini basically performed as expected, their defense maybe even a little better than I thought. One of the most underrated D's in the country. With the O getting it together, watch out. Indiana proved once again that shitty teams putting up big numbers vs. cupcakes doesn't prove anything.

Michigan 14 Penn State 9
*W*Michigan Wolverines +3 -110 (3 Units)
*L*Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110 (1.5 Units)
*W*Penn State/Michigan Under 48 -110 (2 Units)
Still not sure why I added that Penn State hedge later on, I guess peer pressure on this forum or something. I seem to have a very good feel for Michigan right now as I have cashed in their last 3 games. I seem to be in a minority that actually believes this is a top-15 worthy team. Penn State's offense was the story here and they predictably sucked. PSU on the road sucks. I am considering fading them again this week, even though the line is terrible. Michigan is proving themselves, people have to start believing.
*W*South Carolina/Louisiana State Under 46.5 -110 (2 Units)
*L*Louisiana State Tigers 2H -8 -115 (1.5 Units)
The under was probably the right side in this one even though I won by a razor thin margin. South Carolina scored more points than I thought even though they did struggle on offense throughout the game. It was a good thing that LSU decided just to give up on offense in the second half (for the under, not the 2H play) and pound away a W. SC's defense is good though and they played basically as well as I gave them credit for pregame. For the 2H bet, i have never had success in that department and will hopefully control the urge next time. If they would have played more aggressively or the weather had been better they probably would have covered it though. Oh well, probably my only 2H play this season.

*L*Washington Huskies ML +230 (3 Units)
Well, UCLA bounced back harder than I thought they would. I know they have talent, I just do not know how to explain the Utah debacle. I do not think anyone else in the world can either. I will be watching them closely in the next couple of weeks. As for Washington, not ready for primetime. Touch sledding ahead.
 
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You got 2 plays that are solid as hell though. I am loving everything about Clemson
 
Great record so far this year RSMS.

Thought I read you liked anything -4.5 or lower for Oregon. GL with plays, those two look good.

ya, it was 3 when i sat down, hesitated for 2 minutes and it jumped to 4. I am waiting/hoping it drops before I play.
 
FUTURE REPORT
(seems like a lot of these are practically decided)

Louisville To Win Over 10 Games -120 (3 Units) 2-2
:hang:
South Florida Over 8 Wins EVEN (3 Units) 3-0
West Virginia game is pretty big, but with Louisville looking like a clear W now, not that vital
Auburn Under 9 Wins -180 (3 Units)
2-2
here comes #3
Notre Dame Under 7.5 Wins -105 (1.5 Units) 0-4
1.5 units... :hang:
Penn State Over 9 Wins -125 (3 Units) 2-1
Ouch. Need a win here on the road at Illinois. I think this will be there toughest game left. They should be able to win out at home and Indiana, Temple and MSU do not scare me on the road. Big game here
South Carolina Over 7 Wins -125 (2 Units) 3-1
South Carolina to win SEC East +500 (10 Units) 3-1 (1-1) T-2nd Place
South Carolina to win SEC +4000 (125 Units) 3-1 (1-1) T-2nd Place
It was a good showing on the road at LSU, I still think they can win the SEC East. As for this week, hopefully they start to get the offense in gear.
Florida State Seminoles To Win ACC Atlantic Division 1/1 (3 Units) 2-1(0-1) 6th Place
I am basically putting this in the loss column.
Missouri to win Big 12 North +200 (3 Units) 4-0 (0-0)
Wow, they have to be the favorite now. Nebraska sucks, they wont win in Missouri and I do not buy the Kansas bullshit. With both those teams at home, it is their division to lose.
Michigan Wolverines to win exactly 10 games 20/1 (50 Units)
This one starting to look very interesting. Two games are possible losses. @Illinois and vs. Ohio State. They should roll in every other one. Wisconsin is a joke that will not beat this football team. With Henne back by the Illinois game, they may have a shot.
 
Think we can play TAPS on the Louisville play now. Geez. This may be the earliest I have ever had a wins prop decided, and I ain't real proud!

On the other hand, you will have the ND play in the W column in a couple of short weeks. And the rest look good too ( well, maybe not FSU)

NICE work, and a great season start. Keep it up, bro!
 
:tiphat:GridironGems, hope we take em down.
:tiphat:Craftsy21, TY good luck to you this week.
:tiphat:BAR, Thanks, hope to keep it goin
:tiphat:Huntdog, Thanks, Ill try
:tiphat:Grandpa, Lets just forget about Louisville.
 
WEEK 3 Recap
5-3 (+8.40 Units)

Purdue 45 Minnesota 31
*W*Purdue Boilermakers -11.5 -110 (3 Units)A little closer than what I would have liked but a win is a win. Was very important to get the good number obviously as they pushed out at 14. I thought Purdue would get about 50 and they did while Minnesota had more offensive success than anticipated. Looks like Purdue has another shitty D this year.
Illinois 27 Indiana 14
*W*Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 -100 (3 Units)
Still not sure how these teams came to be seen as "even". I am totally convinced that Illinois is for real this year and a threat to the Big 10. One of the Big 10's best squads shouldn't be less than a FG favorite vs. a shitty Indiana team. The Illini basically performed as expected, their defense maybe even a little better than I thought. One of the most underrated D's in the country. With the O getting it together, watch out. Indiana proved once again that shitty teams putting up big numbers vs. cupcakes doesn't prove anything.

Michigan 14 Penn State 9
*W*Michigan Wolverines +3 -110 (3 Units)*L*Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110 (1.5 Units)*W*Penn State/Michigan Under 48 -110 (2 Units)Still not sure why I added that Penn State hedge later on, I guess peer pressure on this forum or something. I seem to have a very good feel for Michigan right now as I have cashed in their last 3 games. I seem to be in a minority that actually believes this is a top-15 worthy team. Penn State's offense was the story here and they predictably sucked. PSU on the road sucks. I am considering fading them again this week, even though the line is terrible. Michigan is proving themselves, people have to start believing.*W*South Carolina/Louisiana State Under 46.5 -110 (2 Units)*L*Louisiana State Tigers 2H -8 -115 (1.5 Units)The under was probably the right side in this one even though I won by a razor thin margin. South Carolina scored more points than I thought even though they did struggle on offense throughout the game. It was a good thing that LSU decided just to give up on offense in the second half (for the under, not the 2H play) and pound away a W. SC's defense is good though and they played basically as well as I gave them credit for pregame. For the 2H bet, i have never had success in that department and will hopefully control the urge next time. If they would have played more aggressively or the weather had been better they probably would have covered it though. Oh well, probably my only 2H play this season.*L*Washington Huskies ML +230 (3 Units)Well, UCLA bounced back harder than I thought they would. I know they have talent, I just do not know how to explain the Utah debacle. I do not think anyone else in the world can either. I will be watching them closely in the next couple of weeks. As for Washington, not ready for primetime. Touch sledding ahead.


Nice call on Illinois by the way. I have no problem giving credit where credit is due. You were one of the few on the Illini, so just wanted to make sure I extended my hand to ya on that one, nice call.
 
Nice call on Illinois by the way. I have no problem giving credit where credit is due. You were one of the few on the Illini, so just wanted to make sure I extended my hand to ya on that one, nice call.

thanks man, i wasn't happy when you were on Indiana.
 
rsms - saw paysinger is out for the year for the ducks. wondering how much this hurts them. figured id ask a resident duckaholic.
 
rsms - saw paysinger is out for the year for the ducks. wondering how much this hurts them. figured id ask a resident duckaholic.

It is hard to tell what this injury is going to do to the Ducks this year. The question all last week was whether Cam Colvin would step up. He obviously responded well with 8 catchers and 136 yards, including a 71 yard reception on the first play of the game. Colvin is a former 5 Star top recruit (it was a big deal when he signed his LOI on ESPN over USC and Michigan) who has the tools but has never really broken out. If this is the start of a trend, the Ducks should be fine. At the rest of the WR position, Jaison Williams is a terrific WR and out of any position, Oregon has the most talent and depth at WR. Garren Strong is a solid experienced SR, and USC transfer Derrick Jones has shown some good stuff as well. Also, Ed Dickson is really starting to emerge at the TE spot and has become a big threat in the passing game.

Overall, Oregon should still be A-Ok at WR
 
It is hard to tell what this injury is going to do to the Ducks this year. The question all last week was whether Cam Colvin would step up. He obviously responded well with 8 catchers and 136 yards, including a 71 yard reception on the first play of the game. Colvin is a former 5 Star top recruit (it was a big deal when he signed his LOI on ESPN over USC and Michigan) who has the tools but has never really broken out. If this is the start of a trend, the Ducks should be fine. At the rest of the WR position, Jaison Williams is a terrific WR and out of any position, Oregon has the most talent and depth at WR. Garren Strong is a solid experienced SR, and USC transfer Derrick Jones has shown some good stuff as well. Also, Ed Dickson is really starting to emerge at the TE spot and has become a big threat in the passing game.

Agree, looks like a lot of depth at WR.
 
I cant wait til those totals come out on 5dimes. Those two were max plays for me especially at those numbers. I just hope they dont go down too much before I get a chance to get them....Keep things rolling RSMS...
 
Great job this year, like your card so far this week. That PST/ILL under looks very good to me.
 
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:tiphat:metsrp86, they don't look like they got beat down that much. You should still be good.

:tiphat:Terpman, thanks and gl this week. I am loving this under.

:tiphat:Troystacks, i would love that result, and keep killing it and GL
 
Illinois/Penn State Under 48 -110 (8 Units)

RSMS, could you explain your thoughts? Obviously, Penn St has an anemic offense, but the Illini do not exactly have a good defense. Also, the Illini have some offensive fireworks, and I assume by betting the under you think Penn St's defense can stop this Illinois offense. Any explanation appreciated...
:cheers:
 
i really really really like your PSU under b/c PSU has shown time after time the inability to move their offense on a consistent basis. Against ND they barely moved their offense. Majority of points were by ND poor special teams field position.

What are you thoughts on teh illini defense as i have no exposure to them?
 
Think theres a shot of getting 48 again for PSU/Illinois. It sits at 47 right now, trying to figure if I should wait or not....
 
i would grab it for sure at 47. I am surprised that it even came back up from 46. I think I would even take this game at 42 if I had to.
 
i really really really like your PSU under b/c PSU has shown time after time the inability to move their offense on a consistent basis. Against ND they barely moved their offense. Majority of points were by ND poor special teams field position.

What are you thoughts on teh illini defense as i have no exposure to them?

I think that Illinois has one of the most underrated defenses in the country right now. This is an experienced bunch made up of 9 returning starters from a unit that was not that bad last year. There is this perception that they are not a defensive team, even though they are. Last year they gave up 26.8 points per game, but if you look closer in the stats, turnovers had a ton to do with that. By yardage, they were on of the Big 10's best defenses. With experience and newfound confidence this season, they are an even stronger unit now.

Look at the Missouri game, it is very deceiving. They give up 40 points, including a 100 yard fumble return and a 66 yard fumble return. Any time a defense has to deal with 5 turnovers they will struggle. They held Mizzou to 2.1 ypc and 70 total rushing yards. Yes, Chase Daniel had a field day, but he is one of the nation's top Quarterbacks and he was playing in a dome, hardly a good spot for the D. Also, with the Illini falling into an early hole, they got away from their running game, which is a major boost for their defense usually.

Looking at the W Ill game is pretty useless, but this is a strong 1-AA team which they just completely flattened on defense, shutting them out, allowing 152 yards and just 4 first downs. Impressive, regardless of the opponent.

The Syracuse game is another deceiving score as the Orange scored 10 points late in garbage time after the Illini led 44-10. This was another example of Illinois just completely shutting down the run (who doesn't shut down Cuse on the ground I know...) and doing a good job against the pass. This was another game in a dome as well. Syracuses offense is not as inept as was thought after last weeks showing either.

Now taking a look at last week, they basically shut down Indianas offense on the road. They did a great job against the run again basically forcing Indiana to all but abandon running the football. The secondary had another solid game and Indiana was held to just 14 points. On offense they were able to run the ball over and over again, letting the defense rest and shortening the game. This is probably their preferred strategy for next week and down the road.

Overall, these guys look good. As long as they arent victimized by costly Williams's interceptions, they should be able to keep opponent's totals down throughout the year.
 
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Analysis
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Fighting Illini

When Penn State has the ball
As you can see from the above post, I am a fan of Illinois' defense. They have a strong front seven and they can stop the run, and not terrible against the pass either. They will be going against Penn State, a pretty inept offensive bunch. This team just does not score points away from home, last 5 away games, 9 vs. Michigan, 3 vs. Wisconsin, 28 vs. Minny (OT) and 6 vs. Ohio State. They are a team that struggles away from home and this should be no different. Morelli is not a great QB and their running game is hardly impressive. They will struggle on the ground here and relying on Morelli to put up the points is not good.

When Illinois has the ball
Illinois has had a pretty solid attack this year led by Juice Williams and a suddenly extremely scary running game. The probelm here is that Penn State is a defensive juggernaut on defense and Illinois will struggle all day to put points up on them. it is likely that the running attack that looked so god vs. the Hoosiers will suddenly start to struggle and Williams will have trouble in the passing game. Offensive struggles on this side as well.

Overall
This has all the makings of a classic Big 10 low scoring ugly affair. The Michigan-PSU game had a total set at 48 last week and it went to 23. i see this as a very similar game again here. Illinois can be compared a lot to Michigan and Penn State is at it again. I look for a very simliar type game. Close, ugly and low scoring. I would be suprised if either team eclipses 20.
Illinois/Penn State Under 48 -110 (8 Units)
 
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Analysis
Mississippi State @ South Carolina

When Mississippi State has the ball
MSU's offense sucks and there is no doubt about it. They are coming off a nice win against Auburn, who has a solid defense despite the rest of their troubles. Looking closer, they scored vs. 19 against the Tigers, and that includes a interception return. So 12 offensive points despite benefitting by 4 other turnovers. They were 5/18 passing but rushed for 172 yards on 4.0 ypc (not that impressive either). Overall, their offensive performance was terrible. Dropping 31 on Gardner Webb doesn't impress me. They are going up against a defense that is jsut as good as Auburn's, and they will not got the turnover advantage they had last time. They will not score much at all.

When South Carolina has the ball
The Cocks are going with a new QB this week trying to spark the sputtering offense. Right now not a lot is happening on offense and the Bulldogs are a tougher D to go against than is appreciated. With the new QB getting adjusted here and the running game not exactly lighting things up, it is hard to see SC really breaking out of their shell here.

Overall
Both of these teams are defensively orientated and will try to run the ball on Saturday. That is usually enough for an under but this one even fits the bill better. Mississippi State has an especially putrid offense while SC is not really doing anything on that side of the ball either. No fireworks in this one.

Mississippi State/South Carolina Under 42 -110 (4 Units)
 
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Analysis
Clemson Tigers @ Georgia Tech Yellowjackets

When Clemson has the ball
Clemson has everything clicking on offense. Cullen Harper has been a very pleasant surprise emerging as one of the ACC's best passers. Everybody knows about their explosive running attack. Georgia Tech's defense is not really as good as was once thought. They let UVA drop 28 points on them , not impressive. The run defense is OK, but Spiller and Co should run on them. Harper should have some success as well. They will score some points here.

When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech's offense without Calvin Johnson is pretty mediocre. Bennett is not the superstar Tech fans were hoping for. Their running game has been struggling lately as well. Clemson's defense has been suprisingly tough and they should be able to contain GT. GT will move the ball and get some points, but not too much.

Overall
So it turns out Georgia Tech's opening performance against Notre Dame meant shit and they aren't really a good team at all. Dominated at home by Boston College and losing on the road to a not so god Virginia team has lost me confidence in them. Clemson on the other hand has really impressed me and I think they are for real. They have a very good offense and a nice aggressive defense to boot. They are the better team here and I think they can get the road victory.

Clemson Tigers -2.5 -110 (3 Units)
 
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Analysis
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida State Seminoles
(Jacksonville, FL)

When Alabama has the ball
Alabama has had a pretty impressive offense so far this year. I love Grant running the ball and Wilson has been improving at the QB position. Florida State has a nice defense, but they haven't really proven themselves yet, and there are plenty of holes to exploit. Bama will be able to get to the twenties here, they are capable to do that.

When Florida State has the ball
Florida State's offense is horrible. They have struggled all year and I am sick of waiting on them. Alabama has a solid defense that is good but not great, but Weatherford find ways to have troubles vs. everybody. I look for FSU to struggle on offense like they always do.

Overall
Alabama is plain and simple the better team this year. FSU is a bunch of underachievers while Bama is playing with a purpose under Saban. I fully expect them to bounce back hard and beat FSU on the neutral field. It will probably be close but a better team catching points on a nuetral field? Have to take that.

Alabama Crimson Tide +3 -110 (3 Units)
 
I couldn't disagree more with your analysis of Penn State's offense. Inept? ND is inept. The Nittany Lions have scored 17 TDs on offense thus far. Granted, the compeition hasn't all been stellar, but neither has Illinois. As a matter of fact, the only opponent Penn St struggled to score against this season has been Michigan, in the big house.

Since you mentioned the 2 non-offensive TD's (1 fumble return, 1 punt return) scored by Mizzou, I also have to point out that the Fighting Illini's first TD in that game was off a blocked punt. 5 turnovers against a mediocre Mizzou defense is not going to get it done.

Also, Indiana handed last week's game over to Illinois by fumbling and turning over the ball 3 times in critical situations. The Hoosiers actually outgained the Illini in terms of total yardage, so I'm not that impressed with the Illini defense.

Having said all that, I think you're Under play looks good. GL!
 
I couldn't disagree more with your analysis of Penn State's offense. Inept? ND is inept. The Nittany Lions have scored 17 TDs on offense thus far. Granted, the compeition hasn't all been stellar, but neither has Illinois. As a matter of fact, the only opponent Penn St struggled to score against this season has been Michigan, in the big house.

Since you mentioned the 2 non-offensive TD's (1 fumble return, 1 punt return) scored by Mizzou, I also have to point out that the Fighting Illini's first TD in that game was off a blocked punt. 5 turnovers against a mediocre Mizzou defense is not going to get it done.

Also, Indiana handed last week's game over to Illinois by fumbling and turning over the ball 3 times in critical situations. The Hoosiers actually outgained the Illini in terms of total yardage, so I'm not that impressed with the Illini defense.

Having said all that, I think you're Under play looks good. GL!

Thanks for the input

I don't really understand your point about PSU's competition. Buffalo and FIU must field some of the worst defenses in the country. Yeah they scored 31 on Notre Dame, but 7 of that was from a punt return and a kot of their offense came from Notre Dame ceding field postion and having their defense be worn down due to their anemic offense. PSU had one offensive touchdown midway through the 3rd quarter. As for Michigan, it is probably the best defense they have faced, and they scored a whopping 9 points against them. This defense got lit up by App State and pummeled by Oregon, it is not exactly a juggernaut. As for Illinois not having played stellar competition, facing Missouri, Syracuse and Indiana on the road is defiantly an above average slate for any defensive unit to have gone against. I think we can form a pretty solid judgement on their defense from their early schedule.
 
Missouri is the only team on that list that I would not consider soft (and maybe Indiana, though I was unimpressed with the Hoosiers play last Saturday). So I guess we can look at it like this...Illinois has yet to face a legit defense, while Penn St has yet to face a legit offense. That was Appy State's game of the millenium at the big house, while Oregon just flat out looks good this season. You can harp on Michigan all you want, but the Wolverines have bounced back after a rough start.

Also, Illinois does have a tendency to cough up the ball. Penn State is typically more conservative, but they also turn the ball over less frequently. Juice hasn't been shy with the ball at any point this season...and you can bet the Nittany Lions will force him to make some tough and risky throws. It's no surprise to me that Illinois outgained the Nittany Lions in last year's matchup. Illinois turned it over 4 times, giving Penn St short fields to work with. When Penn St converted those turnovers into FG's or TD's, the Illini offense came right back onto the field. What impressed me the most was the amount of time the Penn St defense spent on the field, yet the Nittany Lions didn't give up a TD the entire game.

I just think it's funny that because Penn St failed to score a TD in the big house, people now say they're having offensive issues. This is a Joe Pa type of football team...the Nittany Lions have never lit up the scoreboard. They win with good defense and ball control offense. Not to mention Michigan gained a great deal of momentum and confidence against ND the week prior...and confidence goes a long way.

I just think this is a great spot for Penn St to bounce back with a win. Do you really see the Nittany Lions losing two straight? I don't. Since Mendenhal had a great deal of success last year, the Nittany Lions should do everything in their power to bottle him up. Also, the Nittany Lions have great speed at LB. This will make it tough on Williams to run the option, which will eliminate some of his effectiveness in the Illini running game.

:cheers:
 
You can harp on Michigan all you want, but the Wolverines have bounced back after a rough star

Believe me, I am probably Michigan's biggest supporter on this board. I am probably the only person that has bet on them the last two weeks and I have even taken them to run the table two weeks ago. I like their defense, but saying that Penn State struggling on offense @Michigan doesn't mean they have problems on offense is incorrect imo.

This is a Joe Pa type of football team...the Nittany Lions have never lit up the scoreboard.

Also, the Nittany Lions have great speed at LB. This will make it tough on Williams to run the option, which will eliminate some of his effectiveness in the Illini running game.

completely agree

Do you really see the Nittany Lions losing two straight?

you know i am on the under here, not Illinois. I have no confidence whatsoever in the Illini offense in this spot. We'll see what happens.
 
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