RSMS NCAAf Week 3

RSMS9999

RSMS9999

The Prodigy
Record 15-5 (+25.47 Units)
ATS 8-3 (+10.20 Units)
ML 0-1 (-1.23 Units)
Totals 7-1 (+16.5 Units)

Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 -125 (5 Units)
Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -115 (2 Units)

Arkansas Razorbacks/Alabama Crimson Tide Under 47.5 -110 (4 Units)

Southern California Trojans -7 -120 (5 Units)

Tennessee Volunteers +10.5 -110 (2 Units)
Tennessee Volunteers +8.5 -110 (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines -10 -110 (3 Units)
 Michigan Wolverines -7 -120 (2 Units)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish UNDER 18.5 Points -110 (3 Units)

 Texas Tech Red Raiders -25.5 -110 (2 Units)

Boston College Eagles +7 -110 (1.5 Units)

Ohio State Buckeyes/Washington Huskies Under 42.5 -110 (3 Units)
 
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bookmaker, shits fuckin insane

WEEK 2 Recap

*L*Florida State Seminoles -2 -110 (5 Units)
I will just flat out admit it, I whiffed on FSU this year. I bought into the hype and was wrong. It's starting to look like they will never figure it out on offense. Performance vs. UAB shows this was not a fluek
*W*Penn State Nittany Lions -13 -120 (4 Units)
Just too easy of a wager, I think everyone cashed in on this. There was just no way that the Irish could compete, and it played out perfectly.
*W*Washington Huskies +4.5 -120 (2 Units)
I thought that Washington would at leas keep it close but they are even better than I thought. Boise State proved to be pretty overrated as I expected them to be. Betting the angle of Pac-10 gets no respect is soo money.
 *W*Louisiana State Tigers -12.5 -110 (3 Units)
*W*Louisiana State Tigers -11 -110 (2 Units)
Just sick. I knew they had the weapons on offense but they can really score, suprised me somewhat. Just a scary scary team. Va Tech is overrated, especially on offense, and theyshowed their true colors. Almost took the under, but I am glad I didn't

 *W*Oregon Ducks +8.5 -110 (3 Units)
What can I say? Huge day for the team and the program. I know a lot of people aren't giving the Ducks much credit but this team is for real and it showed on saturday. I felt before the game that the Ducks had an advantage on offense, defense and special teams, and it showed.

 *W*California Golden Bears/Colorado State Rams Over 60 -110 (3 Units)
Not really sure how this one got over. Probably a pretty lucky win here even though I thought my analysis was pretty good anyways. This s probably an instance where the line didn't have much value but I went for it anyways because it was such an Over spot. I'll take it.
*L*TCU Horned Frogs/Texas Longhorns Under 45.5 -110 (6 Units)
OMG, this fucking game pissed me off. This was 0-0 with 4 minutes left in the second quarter. Two defensive touchdowns in this one and 24 texas points in the 4th quarter. This one was hard to swallow as I felt that I was absolutely on the right side and took a loss. I guess it "evens out" with my cal over but this was my biggest play and it was hard watching it go down in flames.

 *W*Oregon State Beavers/Cincinnati Bearcats Under 46 -110 (2 Units)
I knew that OSU would have a lot of trouble moving the ball through the air and it proved right. A team with a one dimensional running offense and a tough defense is an under machine and thats what OSU brings. Cincy's points are misleading, this was under all the way

FUTURES RECAP


Louisville To Win Over 10 Games -120 (3 Units) 2-0
Ouch, the defense did not impress me. I will be a tough road ahead. Winning at Kentucky is a must for me, and I think they do it.
South Florida Over 8 Wins EVEN (3 Units) 2-0
:cheers::cheers::cheers:this should be good
Auburn Under 9 Wins -180 (3 Units) 1-1
:cheers::cheers::cheers:just waiting for the collapse during SEC play. They won't score much in conference.
Notre Dame Under 7.5 Wins -105 (1.5 Units) 0-2
They will get roasted this week by Michigan. No way in hell do they get 8 wins this year. Maybe not 8 points in a game on offense either.
Penn State Over 9 Wins -125 (3 Units) 2-0
With the way the Big 10 is shaping up, this is looking better and better
South Carolina Over 7 Wins -125 (2 Units) 2-0
South Carolina to win SEC East +500 (10 Units) 2-0 1st Place
 South Carolina to win SEC +4000 (125 Units) 2-0 1st Place
BIG BIG win. They are on their way
Florida State Seminoles To Win ACC Atlantic Division 1/1 (3 Units) 1-1(0-1) 6th Place
OK, they fuckin suck. Might as well book this as a loss now.
Missouri to win Big 12 North +200 (3 Units) 2-0 T-1st Place
It is hard to really argue that they don't have just as much of a shot as anybody. Just waiting for the home date with the Huskers.
 
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way to get bama and usc early. on the TT play as well. interested in seeing what you have to say about Tenn, BOL RSMS
 
Great start on the season. GL with week 3. Certainly helps that you grabbed some nice numbers.
 
:tiphat:Troystacks, GL this week
:tiphat:Yanks26, yeah that usc line was moving like crazy. When I clicked it it was at 6, then it popped to 7.5 so I had to buy 1. Opening at 4 was absurd.
:tiphat:renew, I not a believer in Florida. I think they get exposed this week.
:tiphat:RambleOn, GL to us
:tiphat:JPicks, you have no idea what getting the best numbers is doing for me. I spent all of last season at bodog, and I am starting to realize that a couple points here and there make all the difference. Its fuckin crazy though when those lines first come out.

GL to all y'all. I feel like I am probably a little too overconfident right now and might be headed for a bad week. Hopefully the :moose: stay away.
 
lucky you dont use a local .. might cut you off. keep up the great work. i like under bama/ark thsi week .. know you like to bet totals now and then ... what do you think ?
 
vegaskyle said:
lucky you dont use a local .. might cut you off. keep up the great work. i like under bama/ark thsi week .. know you like to bet totals now and then ... what do you think ?
Click to expand...

I will be all over that one, probably my biggest play this week. Hoping for around 44.
 
:tiphat:dmoney, gl this week
:tiphat:Huntdog, gl to you too
:tiphat:Vegaskyle. Hopefully your closer, 48 would be awesome
:tiphat:musiccitygambler, lets hoe so, GL this week, especially if your also on the vols
:tiphat:BAR, lets keep it rolling
 
Totals Time

Ohio State Buckeyes/Washington Huskies Under 42.5 -110 (3 Units)

Arkansas Razorbacks/Alabama Crimson Tide Under 47.5 -110 (4 Units)
 
RSMS - Why do you like Bama so much this week? You aren't worried at all about McFadden?

GL bud! :cheers:
 
Ill have a writeup later but I bascially do not feel that Arkansas is the kind of team that can walk into Bama and beat them this year.
 
YAY we got a mistake from the linesmakers and public on our total in the ark/bama game. lets cash this ... no ot please.
 
I hope Vegaskyle. For whatever reason it jumped to 49 right after I took it. Back down to 47.5. Strange shit
 
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Analysis, When Arkansas has the ball
OK, we all know that the combo of McFadden and Felix Jones produces one of the nation's preeminent rushing attacks. But what else do the Hog's bring to the table? A shitty QB in Dick playing in front of 90k raucous fans? A receiving corps that will be without Monk? Sban will know exactly how to prepare for this team. I like Alabama's secondary which coming off a tremendous job against Earl Bennett and Vandy should be ready to shut down Arkansas' aerial attack. I think Bama will be able to stack the box 8 or 9 deep play after play. I dont care how good McFadden is, Arkansas will have trouble moving the ball against a solid Bama Defense wthat will know exactly whats coming. If they have to start throwing, Forget it.

Analysis, When Alabama has the ball
Alabama has a very underrated offense coming into this game. I know Wilson has struggle throwing the ball a little bit so far but I believe he has the ability to turn in a god performance. I came away last week very impressed with Terry Grant. This guys runs tough and has a lot of ability. I think The Tide will be able to have success both passing and running against a defense that I still doubt very much. Last week they did not put up many points but that was because Saban seemed perfectly content to let his defense do its thing as he he ran, ran and ran vs. the Dores. They should be able to have some success.

Overall Analysis
This is a great spot for Alabama to prove itself as the "Arkansas of this year". I also like to think that Arkansas will prove itself to be the "Alabama of this year". Last year I sweated out the Hogs in a lucky lucky win in Fayetteville this year. THis time, The Tide will be ready to roll. The inarguably have the coaching advantage and homefield advantage, and homefield advantage. The Hogs are ready to fall apart. This is not a complete team like last year, they have holes on defense, a shitty QB and are missing a great receiver in Monk. They just won't be capable of beating Bama in Bama this year. Play this game in a couple months and the line will be around 8. I look for this game to be a close, conservative affair, in which down the stretch, when the Hogs have to get away from the constant running and attempt to go for the win, they will fail. As for the total, it is hard to see this game getting up their in points when both teams will be running nonstop and both team's have a strength in D. If Arkansas abandons the run and has to start throwing, I doubt they will have success scoring points that way. This is the most money I have ever had on a single college football game, so I hope to God that I am right.

Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 -125 (5 Units)
Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -115 (2 Units)

Arkansas Razorbacks/Alabama Crimson Tide Under 47.5 -110 (4 Units)
 
Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators

Analysis, When Tennessee has the ball
It is hard to doubt the Tennessee offense. Ainge has turned into a damn good QB and the receivers he is throwing to have proven to be pretty competent. Whoever is running the ball I have confidence in as well. it is not inappropriate to label this the SEC's premier offense. Florida on the other hand, I believe has problems on defense. They have a lot of inexperience here and had problems in the secondary vs. Troy. They will struggle here vs. Ainge and co. Tennessee will come in here fearless on offense and be aggressive. I think they will be able to move the ball and put up the points. They will also be fine if they fall behind, or are protecting a lead, as they are a good, balanced, well coached offense.

Analysis, When Florida has the ball
While I do not have a lot of confidence in Florida's D, I do respect them on the other side of the ball. Tebow is a good Quarterback, they have a solid running game and line and should be able to have success. Tennessee's defense, while struggling against Cal, is pretty solid. It is hard for Pac-10 haters to understand, but the Bears will carve up anyone, regardless of if your in the "mighty SEC". I do not think that Florida is Cal on offense, and it will be interesting to see Tebow adjust in his first big game as the man. I think Florida will have success, but the Vols will show up too.

Overall Analysis
This game to me is about one thing, Florida's defense getting exposed. Now there is no doubt that they should be favored at the swamp against the Vol's but Tennessee can keep up. I don't that the Gators have the defense to pull away from Tennessee ever. This will be close to the end and the number is too big here.

Tennessee Volunteers +10.5 -110 (2 Units)
Tennessee Volunteers +8.5 -110 (1 Unit)
 
Southern California Trojans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

Analysis, When Southern Cal has the ball
What is there really to say about this. Booty is a hell of a QB. Their running game will be very hard to stop regardless of who is back there. Their is no doubt that a few WRs will step up big. Nebraska has a pretty defense and I know they are tough at home but it is hard to see them really stopping USC's offense. They will figure out how to get at least 30 by the end of the game. I will be shocked to see otherwise.

Analysis, When Nebraska has the ball
I am a big fan of the Husker's can do on offense. I like Keller even though I know he has been struggling a lot lately. He is a good QB who will figure things out. Here? I am not so sure. Carroll has seen him before, and if you are a QB still adjusting, you do not want to run into this D. Look for the struggles to continue. Lucky at RB is a strength, but again, this USC defense is tough as shit. The front seven is spectacular. I really believe in this defense, and I think anybody will struggle with them. Nebraska has weapons, but enough to score a lot of points on SC? I doubt it.

Overall Analysis
The talent disparity in this game is clear. USC has more weapons on offense and a dominant defense. Thus, Nebraska backers will be hoping that Callahan can outcoach Carroll and that the home field crowd will sway the upset. The coaching question is a joke and as for going on the road, USC will be able to handle it. I look at SC's track record in big nonconference games and I see this one as another fit in the pattern. It might be close for a while, but SC pulls away at the end as usual for the victory, at least by a touchdown.

Southern California Trojans -7 -120 (5 Units)
 
Rice @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Analysis, When Rice has the ball
Texas Tech is not known for their defense and I do not believe this year will be any different. However, it looks like Rice's one year offensive "resurgence" is over. They could not surpass the 20 point mark vs. Nicholls State or Baylor, neither defensive juggernauts. Tech should be able to handle this putrid offense, and keep them under 20 again.

Analysis, When Texas Tech has the ball
Harrell and the Red Raiders score a lot of points. Will Rice be able to stop them. NOOOOOOOOO. This team gave up 41 to Baylor. FUCKIN Baylor. That roughly equals a 500 point output for the Red Raiders. There will be no stopping Tech in this one. Rice has no clue on how to stop them and The Raiders should get to the fifties easily.

Overall Analysis
Texas Tech will be able to score a ton of points in this one. The Rice defense is terrible and Texas Tech is not shy about going to the air for the whole game and running up the score. Its hard to see them missing at least the fifties in this one. Rice will not be able to keep up. Runing up the score will be great here, and I expect to see it. I am very mad I did not bet this for more, but this is one of my most confident plays of the season. I just can't see how Rice stays within 40.

 Texas Tech Red Raiders -25.5 -110 (2 Units)
 
Love the writeups.

Pretty much see the bama game the same as you , except i see bama offense maybe struggling a bit more than you do.

great thoughts on the vols/gators. 8 points seems like a lot in this series.

Im not betting against weasel leach anymore in these mismatches. just be careful it isnt raining cats and dogs as that takes a lot out of a throwing offense, in particular one based on timing.
 
It rained a little in Dallas during the first quarter of the SMU game. The color guy for Tech was talking about how Harrell like a wet or semi-wet ball to throw. Sans a monsoon in Houston, Tech will be fine and should obliterate a putrid Rice team.
 
last writeups

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines

Analysis, When Notre Dame has the ball
Why has Michigan struggled so much on defense this year? Because of their loss of key starters AND because they played some prolific spread offenses with fast QBs and lots of speed. Prolific is not the word to describe the Notre Dame offense. Their Line sucks, their running game is nonexistent and their QB is a wide eyed freshman. They dropped 3 on Ga Tech and scored 10 on PSU, all on special teams. This is the worst offense in America. Too many people are focusing on Michigan's defensive faults rather than realize that nobody is going to stop the Duck's offense this year. I look for Michigan to completely shut down this putrid ND attack and get some respect back.

Analysis, When Michigan has the ball
Michigan, while it is easy to forget, has a ton of offensive weapons. Yes, I know Henne is out, but they should be able to rely on Hart for a big game and their recievers are talented enough to make some big plays. As was evident last week, Henne is a four year starter, and he has a large, complex playbook to work from that is the Michigan offense this year. Throwing in a freshman last week they were really limited in the second half. While they only scored 7 points on the Ducks, they gained a lot off good yardage and were really not as bad as it looks. Oregon's defense is built to stop the pass and trying to come back through the air with a freshman against a killer secondary was suicide. With a week to gameplan around Mallet, they should be able to have success. ND's defense is OK, but the Wolverines should be fine.

Overall Analysis
People are mistakenly treating these teams as about the same. Michigan is a team that has a clear weakness vs. the spread offense and has struggled accordingly. Notre Dame is a complete mess here. This is a great spot for Michigan to get going again. Their defense will set the pace and they should roll. I know I fucked up on the line but I am still confident Michigan just rolls here. Somehow, they have become one of the nation's most underrated teams.

 Michigan Wolverines -10 -110 (3 Units)
 Michigan Wolverines -7 -120 (2 Units)
 
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies

Analysis, When Ohio State has the ball
I am not that confident in Ohio State's offense right now. They have been struggling a bit and aren't responding that well to all of their losses. The bright spot is their running game and I think that is where they go all game here. Washington has a decent defense but Tressel will be able to wear them down by running throughout and pounding away at the Husky defense. The Buckeyes will probably play ball control here and stay away from anything aggressive.

Analysis, When Washington has the ball
Jake Locker is in for a little shock in this one. The Buckeyes are going to bring an A+ defense to this one and should really be able to frustrate him. I see Washington struggling throughout this game as Locker will not know how to handle this defense.

Overall Analysis
This should be a very defense orientated game. Ohio State will come in here trying to win the game by their defense and play tough conservative football. It's hard to see the Huskies getting enough points to justify a "big lead" and Ohio State should set the pace with their running game. TOSU will never be forced to pass, and they will be content not too. Low scoring, tough football game here.

Ohio State Buckeyes/Washington Huskies Under 42.5 -110 (3 Units)
 
:tiphat:Wolfpack, thanks and GL to you this week

First prop of the season. I have never had success with props and avoiding them so far this season is probably a big part of my profits. I can't resist this one though.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish UNDER 18.5 Points -110 (3 Units)
 
*W*Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 -125 (5 Units)
*P*Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -115 (2 Units)
*L*Arkansas Razorbacks/Alabama Crimson Tide Under 47.5 -110 (4 Units)
*W*Southern California Trojans -7 -120 (5 Units)

*L*Tennessee Volunteers +10.5 -110 (2 Units)
*L*Tennessee Volunteers +8.5 -110 (1 Unit)
*W* Michigan Wolverines -10 -110 (3 Units)
*W* Michigan Wolverines -7 -120 (2 Units)
*W*Notre Dame Fighting Irish UNDER 18.5 Points -110 (3 Units)

 *W* Texas Tech Red Raiders -25.5 -110 (2 Units)

*W*Boston College Eagles +7 -110 (1.5 Units)

*:moose:*Ohio State Buckeyes/Washington Huskies Under 42.5 -110 (3 Units)

decent day, I'll take it. tough to swallow the last one.

At least I'm not a ND fan:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:
 
Record 22-9-1 (+35.97 Units)
ATS 14-5-1 (+25.40 Units)
ML 0-1 (-1.23 Units)
Totals 7-3 (+8.8 Units)
Team Totals 1-0(+3 Units)
 
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