RSMS NCAAF Week 2

RSMS9999

RSMS9999

The Prodigy
Record:

Overall: 8-3-0 (+12.49 Units)
ATS: 2-2 (-3.3 Units)
ML: 0-1 (-1.21 Units)
Totals: 5-0 (+17 Units)

Week 1 Recap:

Wyoming 23 Virginia 3
*W*Virginia Cavaliers/Wyoming Cowboys Under 39.5 -110 (3 Units)
*W*Virginia Cavaliers/Wyoming Cowboys Under 41 -110 (2 Units)
This one didn't go exactly as expected but I am very happy with the result. I felt that UVA would struggle to score on the road but this was pretty sad. The defense wasn't that great either. Wyoming didn't exactly have an offensive explosion though, so maybe I knew a little bit in what I was doing.

California 45 Tennessee 31
 *W* California Golden Bears -4.5 (-110) 3 Units
 *W*Tennessee Volunteers /California Golden Bears Over 52 -110 (3 Units)
I feel this was my best work of the week. The Over pushed at halftime and the game went basically exactly as planned. Cal's offense at home with a lot of energy was practically unstoppable and Tennessee was forced to pass all day, and with good success against Cal's weak D. This one felt good.
BYU 20 Arizona 7
*L*Arizona Wildcats +6 -110 (3 Units)
*L* Arizona Wildcats ML +165 (2 Units)
Well this one sucked. 100% wrong here and this was one of my most confident picks going in. I guess I have to stop believing in this Arizona team. They have been the sexy underdog for about 3 years now and its beginning to seem like they will never wake up. BYU surprised me, much better than I thought they would be. I will be wary of AZ in the future.

Texas 21 Arkansas 13
*L*Texas Longhorns -37 -120, bought 1.2 point (5 Units)
Probably shouldn't of added this one. I usually stay away from the big spread games but you guys were pretty convincing. Oh well.

Missouri 40 Illinois 34
*W*Missouri Tigers -4.5 -110 (3 Units)
*W* Missouri Tigers/Illinois Fighting Illini Over 54.5 -110 (3 Units)
Another game like Cal/Tenn that I got right basically to a tee. No defense in this one and Missouri can put up the points in a hurry.

TCU 27 Baylor 0
*W*Baylor Bears/TCU Horned Frogs Under 47.5 -110 (6 Units)
I am so glad I found this game at the last minute. I still can't believe they set the total at 47. How was Baylor gonna score points here???? TCU's defense is scary but the O is pretty average.


PENDING

*L*Florida State Seminoles -2 -110 (5 Units)

 WEEK 2

*W*Penn State Nittany Lions -13 -120 (4 Units)

*W*Washington Huskies +4.5 -120 (2 Units)

 *W*Louisiana State Tigers -12.5 -110 (3 Units)
*W* Louisiana State Tigers -11 -110 (2 Units)

 *W*Oregon Ducks +8.5 -110 (3 Units)

*W*California Golden Bears/Colorado State Rams Over 60 -110 (3 Units)

*L*TCU Horned Frogs/Texas Longhorns Under 45.5 -110 (6 Units)

*W*Oregon State Beavers/Cincinnati Bearcats Under 46 -110 (2 Units)

writeups coming
 
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Analysis, When Notre Dame has the Ball
Wow, Notre Dame sucks, especially on offense. Unreal how this team continues to get hype. NEWSFLASH, they never were that good these last two years and aren't good this year. With no QB, a shitty line and few weapons they will struggle to score this year. Penn State brings what might be the nation's best secondary and a tough defense to the table in what should be a crazy atmosphere. No chance for the Irish to have success moving the ball

Analysis, When Penn State has the Ball
The Nittany Lions piled up the points last week and should get a ton again in week 2. Notre Dame has a soft defense and the speed on this Nittany Lions team will kill them. They will be super hyped up, feeding off the crowd and play fast and aggressive. Tons of points for them should be easily attainable.

Overall Analysis
This line opened at 11 which was a joke and is now at 16.5 I believe. The spreads are going to grow and grow for Irish opponents and this is a great spot to fade them. Revenge, Hostile environment, flat out better players make PSU the play here. Should be money

Penn State Nittany Lions -13 -120 (4 Units)
 
Boise State Broncos @ Washington Huskies

Analysis, When Boise State has the ball
I am well aware that Boise State has scored a lot of points in recent history. I am aware that Ian Johnson is a terrific back as well. However, they are retooling a lot of what worked last season. I know they scored a lot vs. Weber State but lets see how their new pieces fare on the road. Washington may have a mediocre defense, but compared to their WAC opponents, it should be tough. Couple that with the fact that Husky nation seems excited and will probably be up for this game and it could be a tough place for Tharps first road start. Boise will get some points, but I think they could hit a lot of bumps.

Analysis, When Washington has the ball
The Husky offense looked great at Syracuse last week and should continue at home in week 2. Boise State is a little soft up the middle and Locker and Hasty should find room to open things up and score some points. Boise is not exactly a defensive powerhouse and an punped up Husky team should find ways into the endzone.

Overall Analysis
This is really a classic situation of a team i view as overrated vs. a team I view as underrated clashing heads. Boise is going to take a step back from last year and it looks like Washington is going to improve. This will be the first road game for a lot of these Boise starters and Washington fans will be ready to make noise. Really, I expect a close game and about a toss up. With 4.5 points, the value is on the home team.

Washington Huskies +4.5 -120 (2 Units)
 
adding a couple totals, writeups later

California Golden Bears/Colorado State Rams Over 60 -110 (3 Units)

TCU Horned Frogs/Texas Longhorns Under 45.5 -110 (6 Units)

Oregon State Beavers/Cincinnati Bearcats Under 46 -110 (2 Units)

 disappointed at the opening number in the LSU/Tech game. Still deciding what to do on that one.
 
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...

California Golden Bears @ Colorado State Rams

Analysis, When California has the Ball
Simple analysis here is that the Bears should have no trouble scoring the ball. They gave up a lot to the Buffalos, which despite them being improved and that is was a rivalry game, I hardly see them as a tough D. They just plain will not have the answers to the Cal O. Jackson should have a huge game and Cal should be able to run at will. Cal's special teams should put them in great field position throughout. Even though CSU has a great punter, it is a strength that should be neutralized by Jackson. The Bears get to the forties here.

Analysis, When Colorado State has the ball
Colorado State had some success against what should be a pretty good defense in Colorado. Caleb Hanie ripped up their weak secondary with a great game and Kyle Bell trudged through 40 carries for 140 yards. Cal predictably struggled on defense vs. Tennessee and going on the road without a big home crowd to help them spells struggles again. However, I see the Bears putting up points early and often so the Rams will usually be in a position of needing points quickly. This should force them to go to the air more often as they will not have the luxury of pounding the ball 40+ times again on the ground. They should be able to have success.

Overall Analysis
This is pretty much a letdown game for the Bears in every sense of the word. Probably the Rams as well even though they should be excited to play a ranked Pac-10 team. The fact is that even in a letdown situation, these guys should sleepwalk for at least 5 touchdowns. The unit I am concerned with is the defense which I look to have problems throughout this matchup. The Bears will struggle to put these guys away as the home crowd will be behind the Rams and they should come out very aggressive. I think the Rams can get at least 3 touchdowns and force the Bears to take them seriously for 60 minutes, not letting Longshore and Co. let up.

California Golden Bears/Colorado State Rams Over 60 -110 (3 Units)
 
BOL with the plays RSMS - laying alot on that under huh, and got a nice number @ 45.5. nice grab on PSU as well.
 
nice number on the huskies too. i think that game is 3 most places now. in a few years it will feel like locker has been playing for a decade. nice start. keep up the great totals capping
 
......

TCU Horned Frogs @ Texas Longhorns Analysis, When TCU has the ball
The Horned Frogs will be in their second game breaking in 6 new starters and they lose RB Aaron Brown as well. QB Andy Dalton was ok vs. Baylor, but Texas on the road is a whole different animal. For an offense that was supposed to struggle early and lean heavily on the running game, this Texas defense will not be friendly. While The Longhorn's strength in D lies in their front seven, there DBs should be able to handle the TCU passing attack. Will TCU get anything going on the ground? Probably not much. It is hard to see the Frogs getting to many points.

Analysis, When Texas has the ball
Disappointing is the best way to describe Texas's offensive performance on Saturday. The face value analysis says if they get 21 at home vs. ASU, then how many will they score on TCU's loaded defense. I actually expect the Horns offense to bounce back since they have just too many weapons to be held down. The question really comes down to how many points they can get. The TCU defense will give them trouble all day and the points they get will be hard to come by. I look for a lot of carries again for Charles as Texas should try to let their defense carry them to a win.

Overall Analysis
A lot of people were disappointed in Texas and are really into TCU this week. While I think the Horned Frogs should be very competitive in this game, I see them having a hell of a time scoring enough points. They have a lot of new parts on offense and seamlessly invading Austin seems very doubtful. They also realize that the only way they win this game is through their defense so I expect a very conservative gameplan out of them. They know If they have to start throwing a lot they are probably done. This will be a defensive struggle all day. TCU should be an under machine all year.

TCU Horned Frogs/Texas Longhorns Under 45.5 -110 (6 Units)

Oregon State Beavers @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Analysis, When Oregon State has the ball
Oregon State did all right behind a nice effort from Yvenson Bernard with his dreads flyin vs. Utah. They run into a pretty solid Cincy defense that has a pretty nice front seven. It is hard to see whoever OSu throws out at QB having success through the air in their first road game so we should see a lot of carries for Bernard and a chance for the Cincy front seven to prove themselves. I think they will. Oregon State should be able to get to the twenties, but it will take awhile.

Analysis, When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincy's offense is not good compared to what the Beavers are used to and they should struggle to have a lot of success in this one. Yes, they scored a lot of points vs. that high school in week one, but this is a different ballgame. OSU would have the best defense IMO in the Big East. I just struggle to see Cincy getting many points in this one. I see them really struggling to move the ball consistently whether they attempt to run or throw.

Overall Analysis
Most of my thoughts on this game boil down to my vision that this game will consist of Oregon State pounding the shit out of Cincy with Bernard. I am pretty confident that OSU will not throw that much or have much success in that area and end up just wearing down Cincy's front seven all day. OSU's defense should allow the beavers to play ball control throughout. Cincy has a good enough defense to somewhat contain Bernard and keep the Beavers from scoring a ton, which should produce a nice low scoring grinder

Oregon State Beavers/Cincinnati Bearcats Under 46 -110 (2 Units)
 
:tiphat:BigRaktor, gl to you
:tiphat:reneworleans, lets hit that under
:tiphat:vegaskyle, we'll see if the Huskies are for real
:tiphat:dmoney, we need more totals discussions around here
:tiphat:BAR, GL this week
:tiphat:everyone else
 
final writeups

Final Writeups

Oregon Ducks @ Michigan Wolverines

Analysis, When Oregon has the ball
I am very optimistic for what the Ducks are gonna do on offense this Saturday. Dixon has a huge second half vs. the cougars and may have regained his confidence, which IMO was his main problem last season. When he is confident and not worried about getting pulled nonstop, he is a great QB. The Ducks should run the ball a lot vs. the Wolverines and the combo of Dixon, Stewart and Johnson should be very hard for them to stop. If they have to throw, the Ducks should have success there as well. Ducks should roll on offense.

Analysis, When Michigan has the ball
There has been a lot of bashing the Ducks defense and alot of it is pretty deserved. Stopping Michigan's running game will be very hardand Hart should have a lot of success. The secondary should have a lot of success as Oregon's young DBs look to be improved from a great season last year. Most importantly, Oregon has found a punter for the first time in several years and that alone should give a tremendous boost to the defense. Michigan will get a ton of yards, but the Oregon secondary should play well and contain the scoring to reasonable levels.

Overall Analysis
Overall, I just do not see why Michigan deserves 8.5 points here. I put this spread at 8.5 before last week's debacle and didn't expect to see it happen. It is hard to say that Michigan has an advantage on offense, defense or special teams in this game. Both offenses should be explosive, and it is hard to make a logical case for calling the Michigan D "an advantage" after last week. Special teams wise, we know that the Wolverines have troubles in the kicking game, while the Ducks were solid all around including blocking a punt. With no distinct advantages, is Michigan really getting more than 8 points for the Big House? I am not a believer in the fact that they will come out extra motivated in this one and I also believe that once Oregon starts repeating App State's gameplan to similar success, they will begin to doubt themselves. This line is way way off.

Oregon Ducks +8.5 -110 (3 Units)

 Virginia Tech Hokies @ Louisiana State Tigers

Analysis, When Virginia Tech Has the ball
This is where the trouble will start for this team. Their display on offense at home vs. ECU was beyond pathetic and @ LSU will be a whole different animal. I am not a believer in Glennon or the rest of their offense and think they will have trouble all day getting points vs. this terrific LSU defense. If they get to double digits, I will be suprised.

Analysis, When LSU has the ball
The LSU Tigers have a lot of talent on offense and even though the Hokies D is much hyped up, they should be able to have success. Flynn is a very capable QB and the running game should be able to have success as well. Even for a great defense like Virginia Tech, this offense is just too talented and too balanced to stop for a whole game. The Tigers should dominate field position which will be key to their scoring. Toss in a couple big plays (maybe on defense?) and they should be able to get to the twenties.

Overall Analysis
Although I am not thrilled with this line, I am pretty confident in the Tigers in this game. Va Tech's defense gets a lot of credit for stopping anemic ACC foes and is probably the worse defense in this matchup. The LSU offense is on another level than the Hokie D. Add in a great home field advantage, and I see a pretty easy win here for the home team.

Louisiana State Tigers -12.5 -110 (3 Units)
Louisiana State Tigers -11 -110 (2 Units)
 
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