RSMS NCAAF Week 1

RSMS9999

RSMS9999

The Prodigy
Record 0-0-0

Futures:

Louisville To Win Over 10 Games -120 (3 Units) 0-0
Murray State on Thursday to get things started. Automatic W
South Florida Over 8 Wins EVEN (3 Units) 0-0
Elon at home. Automatic W
Auburn Under 9 Wins -180 (3 Units) 0-0
Kansas State at home. I really do not expect a loss here but one would be terrific. It would be nice to have KSU challenge them a bit and they get banged up a bit, It would help out USF next week. I expect the tigers to be fine though.
Notre Dame Under 7.5 Wins -105 (1.5 Units) 0-0
Huge game at home vs. Georgia Tech. I counted this one preseason as a win for the Irish but its not much better than a tossup. I still doubt that they reach 8 wins if they win this one, but losing here gives me a lot of breathing room.
Penn State Over 9 Wins -125 (3 Units) 0-0
Florida International at home. Automatic Win. They will be ready for Notre Dame next week with the Irish likely coming off a hard fought game.
South Carolina Over 7 Wins -125 (2 Units) 0-0
South Carolina to win SEC East +500 (10 Units) 0-0 T-1st Place
 South Carolina to win SEC +4000 (125 Units) 0-0 T-1st Place
Automatic win vs. Louisiana Lafayette
Florida State Seminoles To Win ACC Atlantic Division 1/1 (3 Units) 0-0 T-1st Place
Huge Huge Huge game for the Seminoles on the road in week 1. If they win this game the division is theirs to lose. If they lose, it will be a tough climb back. I love them in this game but I can throw away this bet if they lose.
Missouri to win Big 12 North +200 (3 Units) 0-0 T-1st Place
Home Game vs. Illinois. Inconsequential for my bet here but a loss wold not make me confident.

Week 1:
Florida State Seminoles -2 -110 (5 Units)

*W*Virginia Cavaliers/Wyoming Cowboys Under 39.5 -110 (3 Units)
*W*Virginia Cavaliers/Wyoming Cowboys Under 41 -110 (2 Units)
*W* California Golden Bears -4.5 (-110) 3 Units

 *W*Tennessee Volunteers /California Golden Bears Over 52 -110 (3 Units)

*L*Arizona Wildcats +6 -110 (3 Units)
*L* Arizona Wildcats ML +165 (2 Units)

*L*Texas Longhorns -37 -120, bought 1.2 point (5 Units)

*W*Missouri Tigers -4.5 -110 (3 Units)
*W* Missouri Tigers/Illinois Fighting Illini Over 54.5 -110 (3 Units)

*W*Baylor Bears/TCU Horned Frogs Under 47.5 -110 (6 Units)
 
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I like UVA minus the points. Think this game will be decided by DD in favor of UVA as they win the battle of the trenches.

Under may still be good, as I envision a 28-10 or 24-14 win for the Cavs.
 
:tiphat:Troystacks
:tiphat:vegaskyle
:tiphat:rj esq

this is by no means it for week 1. As far as Virginia I like them a lot to win this game. I haven't pulled the trigger but I am hoping to play it at a better number than 4.5. I am not very inspired by Virginia's offense on the road and in game 1 I think they could struggle. Hard to lay 4.5 with a struggling offense even though I think UVA's defense will shut the Cowboys down.

As far as other leans, Stanford, Arizona State and Arizona look very nice to me, California ML and the over in that game and I might jump on that Texas bandwagon as I have been impressed with the reasoning on this forum for it.
 
Bookmaker, on the 5th

Florida State Seminoles -2 -110 (5 Units)

Analysis, When FSU has the ball

With improved QB play the Seminoles should have a very strong and balanced offense. The OL will have an advantage against the Clemson DL opening holes for RBs and pass protection. Antoine Smith should have a solid game running the ball. Weatherford should have time to get the ball to his elite receivers against a below average secondary despite the hostile environment. Look for points in the mid twenties to low thirties.

Analysis, When Clemson has the ball

Breaking in a new QB and 4 starters on the OL vs. one of America’s best defense. Even at home Harper should be pressured all day if he trys to pass. However, most likely, the Tigers will pound away on the ground consistently. Without an aerial threat, even the very talented RBs of Clemson will have trouble attaining tons of yards vs. FSU’s very talented front 7. With Florida State’s offense presumably performing well with a balanced attack, the defense should be well rested all game and completely fresh from the offseason Hard to see Clemson scoring much with a running dominated attack vs. a defense that is unlikely to wear down.

Overall Analysis

There is a lot of emotion is this game and it is hard to fade a team in its home opener vs. a conference rival but as they look to be dominated in the trenches, Clemson’s home field advantage and terrific RBs should not be enough to win. If Florida State performs as they should on paper this season, they should have no trouble winning this game.


Virginia Cavaliers/Wyoming Cowboys Under 39.5 -110 (3 Units)

Analysis, When Virginia has the Ball

Virginia is not an offensive juggernaut and while they look to be improved this year on offense, it is hardly a strong unit. The very weak skill positions are all lifted due to a tremendous line which keeps them from being very bad. Their OL should absolutely obliterate the trenches here which should allow Virginia to have success running the ball and playing solid conservative offense, wearing down Wyoming’s D and not putting too much pressure on their young QB to score on the road. UVA should play ball control and be able to get some points, although their max is in the mid twenties as they will have to grind for every point.

Analysis, When Wyoming has the Ball

Wyoming has a decent MWC QB and not much else going for them on offense. The OL should struggle and get completely outclassed by the Virginia front 7. They should have a lot of trouble maintaining drives with minimal holes being created and not a lot of time to throw. It will be hard all day for them to score, especially considering UVA is likely to play ball control keep their defense fresh and confident throughout. They may get some points through the air, but not a lot.

Overall Analysis

This game features an improved Virginia team that is put on the spot early on with a tough road game to prove themselves. I really like this team this year but they are not the type to blow out mediocre teams on the road. They will have to approach this game knowing that if they win it will be because their defense stepped up. Considering their D should dominate, there is not a lot of reason to take a lot of risks offensively in the opener. Using their OL strength and their young QB, there will be a lot of running, even with their weak running game. This should result in a lot of time of the clock, a lot of yards eaten up, a few points, and a fresh UVA defense for 4 quarters ready to dominate. This game reached 25 points in OT last year. I expect another low scoring affair.
 
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Tennessee Volunteers /California Golden Bears Over 52 -110 (3 Units)
I have spent a lot of time thinking about this game and I have come to the conclusion that anything over 4 is too much to lay here. I will admit I bet Cal last year confidently and got killed so maybe that makes me a little hesitant about taking Cal but I think I have a good grasp on these teams. When Cal will be\

Analysis, When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee should be capable of scoring on the road in this game. With a strong offensive line that should dominate Cal’s DL, look for Coker to find holes early and often. Getting the running game established early will be key for them and I think they will do so. I really expect Cal’s secondary to struggle this season. They were hanging on last year because they had some great players, this season they might be in trouble. Even with the unproven WRs, some of these guys will obviously step and I think Ainge will be able to go for big yardage in this one, especially if he is trying to keep up with the Bear’s aerial attack. Tennessee should be able to run their offense smoothly and score at least in the twenties.
EDIT-I am aware of the Coker suspension situation. I do doubt however that Tennessee will hold him out of this. This is a big game and UT is not exactly a bastion of integrity, lets be real here. Even if he doesn't play, I don't see much of a different analysis.

Analysis, When California has the ball

There is no question that Tennessee has a great defense, but this California attack should be very explosive. The UT front seven is terrific but Cal’s O line should be able to match them . Forsett is a very capable back and he will get his carries but I think Tedford knows where he has the advantage in this one and will attack the UT secondary at will. It will be very hard for them to stop Jackson and the rest of Cal’s tremendous receiving core. Longshore should avenge last year’s shitty performance with a great game. I think Cal easily gets to the twenties and probably more, they will not let up.

Overall Analysis

Both of these teams are solid football teams and will bring it in this one. I just don’t see how they avoid a shootout. Tennessee should be able to run the ball well but I don’t see how they could run ball control all game when California is going to get their points. I can really see California scoring a ton and Tennessee opting for the air (which should be successful) in an effort to keep up or comeback. Even with a conservative offense, the Vols should be able to run through Cal’s DLine. In what should be a tight game, I expect the scoring to go back and forth well into this one. I think the Bear’s take it, but they will win it with Offense and it wont be easy.

 
agree with your analysis of the virginia/wyoming game, rsms. i also liked the under a bit in this game but i liked the side more .... and dont like being in the position of playing a favorite AND an under in the same game so i went with the one i liked best. nice to see someone who thinks this game goes the same way i expect it to.

indifferent to your cal/tenn total as i see the game as one where both offenses have some degree of success but dont dominate and i see tenn burning some clock with effective run schemes. 51-56 seemed about right to me so i layed off. gl with it.... i plan on watching this game as it should be the premier match up of the week ( sorry fsu at clemson).
 
good stuff and insights vegaskyle.

I understand a lot of what your saying about the Cal game and I realize the line isn't terrific. However, I think Tennessee will have trouble burning the clock and running a lot when I expect them to have a lot more success through the air as well as probably playing a lot from behind. Obviously if Cal comes out flat and Tennessee is in control then I am screwed, but I really dont see that happening.

agree with your analysis of the virginia/wyoming game, rsms. i also liked the under a bit in this game but i liked the side more .... and dont like being in the position of playing a favorite AND an under in the same game so i went with the one i liked best. nice to see someone who thinks this game goes the same way i expect it to.
Click to expand...

Ditto across the board except I like the total more
 
few comments..

South Carolina Over 7 Wins -125 (2 Units) 0-0
South Carolina to win SEC East +500 (10 Units) 0-0 T-1st Place
 South Carolina to win SEC +4000 (125 Units) 0-0 T-1st Place
Automatic win vs. Louisiana Lafayette

:smiley_acbe:

haha, man +4000 would be a nice payday. I am sticking to the Over 7 wins and +500 to win the East.

I am on FSU with you and looking at Arizona as one of my leans. I am going to hit Texas 1st half hard whenever the line comes out. Solid analysis on your plays and wish you the best of luck
 
:tiphat:everythingthatsgreen
:tiphat:frankiegotti

haha, man +4000 would be a nice payday. I am sticking to the Over 7 wins and +500 to win the East.
Click to expand...

If you are on the 5/1 to win the East I don't see how you can not jump on the 40/1 for the SEC. I am on it mostly for the hedging possibilities. If they win the East and go to the Championship game you are -300 at worst and probably much better to take the other side, so if you hedge it to be even on both sides, you are really getting paid off for 10/1 if they win the East, and even then, thats at worst. I took the 5/1 mostly because I didn't have much other use for my bodog funds, the 40/1 is much much better value, even if you don't think they can win the SEC Championship game.
 
..

Arizona Wildcats +6 -110 (3 Units)

Analysis, When Arizona has the ball
It is no secret that Arizona has struggled on offense recently but there is reason to believe they will get better this year. They scored 16 last year vs. BYU in a win. I think with their new OC the offense has a chance to be a lot better. Tuitama looks poised for a breakout year and they have a lot of experience at the OLine and WR spots. BYU was playing great football last year but I think they will take a step back here. Their D put up good numbers last year but not versus terrific offenses and I think they are pretty weak up front. Basically I see an average offense up against an average defense here. I think Arizona will have an advantage in TOP, which should allow them to score some points.

Analysis, When BYU has the ball
BYU had an amazing offense last season. Beck was the man, Curtis Brown was a hell of a running back, and they had a nice slate of Wideouts. Its all gone. All of it. The OLine should be very strong but they are being forced to start over at al the skill positions and this is BYU, not exactly reload U. I seriously doubt these newcomers. They should have all sorts of trouble against Arizona's defense. The Cat's have the Pac-10s best D (outside of SC) and should be better than anything BYU will see all season. Last year they managed 13 in the opener vs. this team (as an offense that averaged about 4x that). With all new parts and an improved defense it would be impressive if they top last years total.

Overall Analysis
This is really a value line for me. I see Arizona as a better team than BYU this season and whenever I see the better team getting points you have to consider the dog. Arizona's defense should set the tone throughout the game. This is not a team you want to play when you have a whole new offense playing in an opener with lots of pressure to live up to the previous regime. With the defense that AZ brings into this game and the offensive problems that BYU has it is almost impossible to see BYU scoring a lot of points in this one. Thus the only way they cover 6 points is to pretty much shut down Zona on offense. They don't have the Defense to do that and I think that the Cats will score. Arizona has shown to be very capable of playing on the road and should be focused, confident and ready to go. Too many points given here.
 
thanks for the comments, lets hope it turned outs right

Finishing off the card for these,

Texas Longhorns -37 (-120, bought 1.2 point) 5 Units
This is basically just tailing the forum.
California Golden Bears -4.5 (-110) 3 Units
I am still not sure why I pulled the trigger on this one but I thought i got a good number and jumped. This should be a game of touchdowns not FGs, so since I think Cal will win, 4.5 is reasonable. See writeup for the rest
Adding 2 Units to the Virginia/Wyoming Under at 41
hey im still confident with this

writeup on mizzou/illinois coming for the finish
 
Illinois vs. Missouri

Analysis, When Missouri has the ball
The Tigers should really pile up the points in this one. Chase Daniel is a hell of a QB and the offense is just solid all the way around. They should be able to run and pass efficiently and have tons of success vs. the Illinois D in St. Louis. THe Illini D shouldnt be that bad, but the Tigers should connect for several touchdowns.

Analysis, When Illinois has the ball
Unfortunately for the Tigers, their D is nowhere near a strength as the other side of the ball. They are pretty mediocre unit and a dominating performance here would surprise me. Juice Williams probably gets a lot of hype just because of his name but he should be able to make some plays at least. I think the Illini wil just open it up from the get go and play uber aggressively on offense. This should lead to lots of big plays and points, as well as turnovers. They should score a lot as well, probably not taking as much time as Mizzou either.

Overall Analysis
I look for this to be a nice little shootout in St. Louis. The Tigers should score, the Illini should score and it should be pretty close. Lots of passing and the new rules should keep this game going long and push this total over. As fro who wins, Mizzou looks to be the better team, have more expericene and are closer to home. Sounds good to me.

Missouri Tigers -4.5 -110 (3 Units)
Missouri Tigers/Illinois Fighting Illini Over 54.5 -110 (3 Units)


 
Baylor Bears @ TCU Horned Frogs

Analysis, When Baylor has the Ball
Question, how is Baylor going to score points in this game? They are going up against on the road one of the country's premiere defenses, returning 9 starters. TCU will be ready to defend their turf against the run and the pass and make trouble all day for Baylor. This D has almost no holes no weaknesses for the Bears to exploit. Baylor returns 4 starters from a shitty offense and should struggle passing and running, as they are breaking in new guys everywhere. They scored 7 at home vs. TCu in last years opener. With The BU offense looking to get worse and the TCU defense better, it would not be surprising to seem them get blanked.

Analysis, When TCU has the Ball
TCU has 5 starters back from last years group and figure to be pretty average on this side of the ball in 2007. With a new QB and lots of new faces in the WR corps, I look for them to lean heavily on RB Aaron Brown and a decent Offensive line. Baylor's D is terrible, so success through the air can not be ruled out, however in the first game, TCU should be content to pound away on the ground and play ball control. They should get some points, but they will be in a position to play pretty conservatively.

Overall Analysis
This game has all the makings of a TCU victory and by a solid margin. But looking at the dynamics, the 21 point spread looks pretty lofty considering all the questions on offense for the frogs. i don't see a scenerio where TCU doesn't play conservative ball control on offense and let their rested defense just flat out dominate. This went to 24 last year so I am confused why its at 47.5. Unders are my favorite and I almost missed this one. Biggest play of week one.

Baylor Bears/TCU Horned Frogs Under 47.5 -110 (6 Units)
 
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