RSMS NCAA Football Week 4

RSMS9999

RSMS9999

The Prodigy
Record 22-9-1 (+35.97 Units)
ATS 14-5-1 (+25.40 Units)
ML 0-1 (-1.23 Units)
Totals 7-3 (+8.8 Units)
Team Totals 1-0(+3 Units)

wow, i really hate this card. Will probably be a very light week.

Official Plays

*W*Purdue Boilermakers -11.5 -110 (3 Units)

*W*Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 -100 (3 Units)

*W*Michigan Wolverines +3 -110 (3 Units)

*L*Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110 (1.5 Units)

 *W*Penn State/Michigan Under 48 -110 (2 Units)

*W*South Carolina/Louisiana State Under 46.5 -110 (2 Units)

*L*Washington Huskies ML +230 (3 Units)

*L*Louisiana State Tigers 2H -8 -115 (1.5 Units)
 
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week 3 recap

*W*Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 -125 (5 Units)
*P*Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -115 (2 Units)
*L*Arkansas Razorbacks/Alabama Crimson Tide Under 47.5 -110 (4 Units)
Well this game did not really go as I expected but I will live with the result. I obviously underestimated both offenses greatly and overestimated the defenses. It is hard to say that I was 100% right on Bama but I did write pregame that I thought in crunchtimes Arkansas would not get it done on the road in this spot so that worked out. Obviously it was smart to buy the half point.

 *W*Southern California Trojans -7 -120 (5 Units)
Another non conference ass whooping by the Trojans. What else is new?

*L*Tennessee Volunteers +10.5 -110 (2 Units)
*L*Tennessee Volunteers +8.5 -110 (1 Unit)
Wow, I really was way way off on this one. I really doubted Florida and I was just all off. Their offense is much better than I thought, Tebow is better than I thought, and their defense is a lot better than i thoughts. As for UT, they are obviously shitty on defense and a mediocre team. Oh well.


*W* Michigan Wolverines -10 -110 (3 Units)
*W* Michigan Wolverines -7 -120 (2 Units)
*W*Notre Dame Fighting Irish UNDER 18.5 Points -110 (3 Units)
Wow, the more I think about this game the more I wish I had loaded up more on it, even though I had basically 8 units on this one. Notre Dame is so fuckin pathetic it is beautiful. How the hell did Bodog come up with 18.5 points as their team total? Ridiculous. I still think Michigan is a top 20 team at least, and will bet accordingly.

 *W* Texas Tech Red Raiders -25.5 -110 (2 Units)
They gave up a few too many early points, but the Texas TEch run up on shitty teams angle worked again to perfection.

*W*Boston College Eagles +7 -110 (1.5 Units)
I was not on the BC bandwagon to start the season (thanks steele) but you have to admit they look like the ACC favorite right now. I do not know how Ga Tech layed 7 points. Beating Samford and ND big does not make you a good football team.
*L* Ohio State Buckeyes/Washington Huskies Under 42.5 -110 (3 Units)
This one was a tough one to handle. 7-3 at halftime this shit was still under with less than a minute to go when OSU ran the ball in for a 38 yard touchdown run when they could have been kneeling. UnFUCKINbelieveable. I would bet this one over again in a heartbeat.
 
FUTURES RECAP


Louisville To Win Over 10 Games -120 (3 Units) 2-1
This one is not looking good. Their defense is terrible and they will not beat West Virginia. Can they win the rest? Maybe. Push at best I am thinking. They should let the frustration out this week vs. the Cuse though
South Florida Over 8 Wins EVEN (3 Units) 2-0
Into the top 25. SHould roll this week.
Auburn Under 9 Wins -180 (3 Units) 1-2
Oops, the SEC collapse starts with Mississippi State. I am pretty comfortable here.
Notre Dame Under 7.5 Wins -105 (1.5 Units) 0-2
14 point dogs at home to Michigan State. LOL. 8 wins this season is a pipe dream
Penn State Over 9 Wins -125 (3 Units) 2-0
Big game this week against Michigan. The Big 10 is so weak this year I think they don't even need this game to get to 10. Wouldn't hurt though.
South Carolina Over 7 Wins -125 (2 Units) 3-0
South Carolina to win SEC East +500 (10 Units) 3-0 (1-0) 1st Place
 South Carolina to win SEC +4000 (125 Units) 3-0 (1-0) 1st Place
I do not think they have the horses to beat LSU on the road. Would like a strong showing though. If they play them tough in Baton Rouge there will be hope for the eventual title game matchup.
Florida State Seminoles To Win ACC Atlantic Division 1/1 (3 Units) 2-1(0-1) 6th Place
No offense. I don't think they beat BC in Boston. Not much hope here.
Missouri to win Big 12 North +200 (3 Units) 3-0 T-1st Place
Huskers are not world beaters. Missouri starting to look like the favorite here.
Michigan Wolverines to win exactly 10 games 20/1 (50 Units)
Rolled up Notre Dame as expected. Beat Penn State here as small home dogs and they should be fine until Wiscy.
 
Damn , that is friggin brutal beat on the buckeye total. brutal. I was all over the under in that ark/bama game too. way off as bama run D and ark pass D were both considerably worse than i expected. Your futures are looking good brutha !! keep up the incredible run , which should be more incredible given that ??????????? score when they should have been in victory formation.
 
:tiphat:thanks vegaskyle. It was defiantly tough being on that under in ark/bama last week. Still dont know how that one got to 79. GL this week.
 
Purdue Boilermakers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Analysis, When Purdue has the ball
This may be the perfect matchup for the Boilermakers offense. This is a team that with Curtis Painer, loves nothing more than to throw the ball and put up big points. The Gophers have quite possibly the worst secondary in the nation. It doesn't matter that they are home, Purdue will put up 50+ easy.

Analysis, When Minnesota has the ball
Purdue's defense is not their strong point but they should be able to put forth a solid effort in this one. Minnesota has a struggling freshman quarterback, shitty receivers and a mediocre line and running game. They may move the ball a little but it is hard to expect any offensive fireworks.

Overall Analysis
It really looks like the Gophers just get blown away here. It is practically a guarantee that their defense gets torched here. They may have the offense to *almost* catch up to Florida Atlantic but Purdue is a different story. If you cant beat them , you wont stay within 20 of Purdue

Purdue Boilermakers -11.5 -110 (3 Units)
 
Blue Chip- I was gonna send you pm back but I'll just drop some thoughts here.

I think wholeheartedly that Oregon is the right side in this game. The offense has looked downright amazing so far and its hard to imagine Stanford keeping the Ducks under 40. I am considering playing it but I really really don't lke to bet on the Ducks or Duck games at all, just cause it screws it up for me. The Michigan game was na exception because I thought the line was just that ridiculous I couldn't leave money on the table.
For the game it looks like another Oregon blowout on paper. Stanford hasn't been close to the Ducks for a while now and this year shouldn't be any different. The only drawback I see is that the Cal game next week is seriously looming right now. It is all but certain that the Gameday crew will be n Eugene and the Cal game has become a pretty big rivalry these days with Tedford/Bellotti, and a lot of close games and recruiting battles. After last years humiliation on National TV, this game will be huge. I almost never consider these "sitiuational" angles at all but its hard to see them focusing on Cal. That said, the ducks should roll and I may eventually play it.
 
adding

South Carolina/Louisiana State Under 46.5 -110 (2 Units)

considering

Penn State/Michigan under (looks like I completely missed the #)
California/Arizona over
Houston -6.5
Oregon -16.5 (if it comes back)
Michigan/Under Teaser
 
I have that same Louisville futures bet, and the future is bleak. Still have Rutgers, SFla, and WVa, and have to win out to win. Only 1 more loss available to get the push. I have conceded.

If I knew they were this (D)efenseless, I doubt I would have wasted my cash.

I do, however, have TEXAS Under 10, and they look especially vulnerable. Will lose to OU, and could lose to Nebraska, A&M, Tech, or maybe even another team as well.
 
If you feel strongly that Purdue will put of 50+, wouldn't the Over be a solid bet, as well? I agree with your analysis of this game and believe the over is as strong a play, if not stronger, as the side. Just curious...
 
GrandPa said:
I have that same Louisville futures bet, and the future is bleak. Still have Rutgers, SFla, and WVa, and have to win out to win. Only 1 more loss available to get the push. I have conceded.

If I knew they were this (D)efenseless, I doubt I would have wasted my cash.

I do, however, have TEXAS Under 10, and they look especially vulnerable. Will lose to OU, and could lose to Nebraska, A&M, Tech, or maybe even another team as well.
Click to expand...

very bleak. i agree. All those teams have flaws though, its not just the Cardinals. Push is very possible.
 
GL this week. Opposite on Michigan, but the under looks good, especially with Doucet's availability in doubt.

Great job thus far.
 
counselor said:
If you feel strongly that Purdue will put of 50+, wouldn't the Over be a solid bet, as well? I agree with your analysis of this game and believe the over is as strong a play, if not stronger, as the side. Just curious...
Click to expand...

the over would be the play if I played it, but I generally stay away from huge numbers. I don't see Minnesota scoring that much anyway.
 
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Indiana Hoosiers

Analysis, When Indiana has the ball
Overall, I am pretty impressed with Indiana's offense so far. I really like what Kellen Lewis has been doing and I think they should put up some points this year. I think Illinois' defense is a tad underrated right now. The "20 points to Syracuse" is not accurate as they scored in garbage time, they put forth a solid effort. They gave up 40 to Missouri, but that included a 100 yard fumble return and a 66 yard punt return. Their run defense has been spectacular and they should shut down the Hoosiers on the ground. Lewis taking it to the air constantly may be cause for concern for IU.

Analysis, When Illinois has the ball
Illinois's offense is starting to gel right now. Juice Wiliams can toss around the football, the WR corps are solid and the running game is firing away. They have proven they can score the ball on the road and I don't see them getting stopped here. The Hoosier's defense is not very good and I think they Illini will move the ball and get their points in.

Overall Analysis
Both these teams are getting lumped together improving Big 10 bottom feeders. The fact is that IU is stll adjusting and not quite there yet while Illinois is ready for the primetime. There is a reason that Illinois is laying points here. They are teh better team and they should prove it saturday.
Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 -100 (3 Units)
 
...

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Analysis, When Penn State has the ball
There is one thing that is holding me back from considering Penn State an elite team this year, and that is their offense. They have faced such crappy teams so far, the O really hasn't proved anything. A lot of their points vs. ND came from field position and special teams caused by Notre Dame's complete ineptitude. They have a very traditional offense and I think that a confident Michigan defense will shut them down. They will struggle on O at the Big House

Analysis, When Michigan has the ball
I do not know who is starting in this game, Henne or Mallet but Michigan's offense will be based around Mike Hart regardless. Penn State has a hell of a defense and it will be difficult to move the ball but there is a lot of talent on this Wolverines team and they should be able to eek some points out.

Overall Analysis
I seem to be one of the few believers in Michigan. I still view these teams as very similar, pretty even. I will go with recent history, the home team and the points in this one. I think Michigans takes it in a very close, very low scoring game.

Michigan Wolverines +3 -110 (3 Units)

Penn State/Michigan Under 48 -110 (2 Units)
 
...

South Carolina @ Louisiana State

Analysis, When USC has the ball
This South Carolina offense is in a lot of trouble. They have been struggling on this side of the ball so far and this is not a great spot for turning your offense around. Their passing game will never get going and I fully believe that LSU will shut down their running game. I expect a Spurrier to pull something out to get a few points but they will be very hard to come by.

Analysis, When LSU has the ball
Louisiana State has been terrific offensively so far so it is hard to really doubt them. However, USC has a very very underrated defense and they may suprise some people in this game. I think they have the ability to shut down the Tiger's offense for at least a while in this game. They should eventually wear down but I see a score in the twenties for LSU.

Overall Analysis
This will be a game showcasing two terrific defenses. I think that both offenses will struggle, there will be a lot of running the ball and a tough defensive victory for LSU.

South Carolina/Louisiana State Under 46.5 -110 (2 Units)
 
RSM is an ATS machine, damn up 34units already, GREAT JOB.


You have some nice plays, any ideas what you are going to do on Houston? I am still debating this game myself. I do like that Michigan UNDER a lot and I am going to give that a look. GL
 
I believe that PSU has the edge in the matchup in special teams. Who do you think has the matchup advantage in special teams?
 
:tiphat:ETG. Probably going to lay off the Houston game even though I do like the cougars in that one. I don't really have much of a feel for mid majors.

:tiphat:frankie. Have to agree the that Penn State has some pretty sick special teams. However, Michigan's punting game is very solid and I think the kicking game is getting there. Shouldn't be too much of a liability.

GL to you guys this week
 
:cheers:

I love the purdue pick over MN,the gophers are just not good,cant believe the line is this low
 
:tiphat:thanks BAR, GL

adding

Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110 (1.5 Units)
buying back a little after putting a lot of thought into this one. I seem to have higher regard for michigan than everyone but the oddsmakers. After a lot of thought, I think 3 was probably the right line and there really wasn't much value on the Wolverines. I am really expecting a close game and I think PSU has a great chance here. I think there is about a 10% chance this ends in a field goal win for PSU so there is value in the hedge with -2. Should be a great game.
 
thanks frankie, I think they have a great shot.

Well this is what happens when Vandy has a bye week i guess. Instead of tailgating and getting fucked up. I sit here making retarded gameday add ons that ruin my perfect card.

:10_5_137:
 
damn you, just kidding good hit on michigan, Morelli proved to you and i once again why he is a legitimate heisman contender.

That begs the question how does PSU get 100k people in the stadium every game? I almost fell asleep watching the offense.
 
notice how everything with a writeup is a Win. Lol. At least the Ducks took care of business in the second half.

Good night everyone
 
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