MLB Postseason Best Bet for October 5: The Yankees Are Ready to Dominate
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 6:38 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
New York's Game 1 Starter
Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees in Game 1.
Cole's regular season ERA might make it seem like he is not the high-caliber pitcher that he has been thought to be.
However, his regular season ERA is misleading because it is inflated by his slow start to the season, which is irrelevant to his current form.
Importantly, Cole regained his high-caliber form in the second half of the season.
Whereas his ERA was 5.40 in the first half of the season, it was 2.76 in the second half.
Last month, Cole yielded a .145 BA and .173 slugging rate.
He allowed one run or zero runs in four of his last five starts, with the one exception coming against a Boston rival that, being in the same division, is extra familiar with him and had, unlike the Royals, already faced him before in this season.
Cole's Repertoire
Primarily, Cole throws four different pitches: in descending order of usage, he throws a fastball, knuckle curve, cutter, and slider.
These pitches combine to make close to 96 percent of his repertoire.
His fastball alone, though, makes up close to half of his arsenal.
It is smart of him to rely so extensively on this pitch because of how effective it is: opponents are batting .186 against it.
This pitch is both fast — it averages 95.9 mph — and it has a lot of spin.
While he'll distribute this pitch pretty evenly along both sides of the strike zone, heat maps illustrate his tendency to elevate it.
By being elevated, his fastball adopts the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it. This pitch's spin makes it hard for batters to track its location.
Also, it is simply difficult for batters to keep up with this pitch, given its velocity, especially when he plays it off his knuckle curve, which is his second-favorite pitch and which averages 13 fewer mph than his fastball.
While, again, Cole ably distributes the location of his knuckle curve along different parts of the strike zone, he also likes to bury it.
So, batters struggle to adjust not only to the differences in velocity but also to the differences in location, as Cole menacingly changes their eye level by elevating his fastball and then burying his knuckle curve.
Will Cole Be Sharp on Saturday?
If you think that Cole will lack sharpness on Saturday, then you are wrong.
In 2022, the Yankees were in the same situation that they are currently in: they skipped the Wild Card round and participated in the ALDS.
Cole pitched Game 1 of the ALDS in that year. The Yankees run-line hit largely because Cole dominated, holding the Guardians to one run in 6.1 innings.
His performance in that game is consistent with the success he's had throughout his postseason career.
He owns a 2.93 career ERA in the postseason.
Cole vs. Royals Batters
Cole matches up excellently against Royals batters.
They rank 23rd with a .398 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Of course, this statistic is inflated by their at-bats against pitchers who are inferior to Cole.
When they encounter Cole, they will face stronger versions of those pitches that they already struggle against.
The Outlook for Kansas City's Starter
Michael Wacha starts for the Royals on Saturday.
Wacha's outlook on Saturday is negative because he matches up terribly against the Yankees.
He throws a changeup, fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, and curveball.
New York ranks first with a .455 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Wacha In The Postseason
Even if Wacha matched up well against the Yankees, he is simply a terrible postseason bet in general.
He suffers a career 5.21 postseason ERA, but it is his most recent postseason starts that justify pessimism.
In his last four postseason starts, he has allowed a combined total of 19 earned runs.
He allowed at least four earned runs in all of those starts except when he allowed three earned runs in 0.1 innings.
Bullpens
New York will use its superior bullpen to secure its big win.
Whereas the Royals' bullpen ranks 20th in ERA, New York's ranks fifth.
Takeaway
New York owns significant advantages in both the starting pitcher and bullpen matchups, which will produce a victory by multiple runs.
Given its 6-1 win in its first game back from the All-Star Break, there is no reason to think that its lineup will be rusty.
It's in any case not like the Royals' batters have shown good form in this postseason.
Cole will prolong their struggles, while he gets plenty of support from New York's lineup feasting on Wacha and Kansas City's weaker bullpen.
Kansas City's Wild Card opponent no-showed for a second straight year, but the Yankees will be ready to go as they aim to repeat their ALDS success from their last postseason trip in 2022.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-1.5) at +106 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 6:38 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
New York's Game 1 Starter
Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees in Game 1.
Cole's regular season ERA might make it seem like he is not the high-caliber pitcher that he has been thought to be.
However, his regular season ERA is misleading because it is inflated by his slow start to the season, which is irrelevant to his current form.
Importantly, Cole regained his high-caliber form in the second half of the season.
Whereas his ERA was 5.40 in the first half of the season, it was 2.76 in the second half.
Last month, Cole yielded a .145 BA and .173 slugging rate.
He allowed one run or zero runs in four of his last five starts, with the one exception coming against a Boston rival that, being in the same division, is extra familiar with him and had, unlike the Royals, already faced him before in this season.
Cole's Repertoire
Primarily, Cole throws four different pitches: in descending order of usage, he throws a fastball, knuckle curve, cutter, and slider.
These pitches combine to make close to 96 percent of his repertoire.
His fastball alone, though, makes up close to half of his arsenal.
It is smart of him to rely so extensively on this pitch because of how effective it is: opponents are batting .186 against it.
This pitch is both fast — it averages 95.9 mph — and it has a lot of spin.
While he'll distribute this pitch pretty evenly along both sides of the strike zone, heat maps illustrate his tendency to elevate it.
By being elevated, his fastball adopts the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it. This pitch's spin makes it hard for batters to track its location.
Also, it is simply difficult for batters to keep up with this pitch, given its velocity, especially when he plays it off his knuckle curve, which is his second-favorite pitch and which averages 13 fewer mph than his fastball.
While, again, Cole ably distributes the location of his knuckle curve along different parts of the strike zone, he also likes to bury it.
So, batters struggle to adjust not only to the differences in velocity but also to the differences in location, as Cole menacingly changes their eye level by elevating his fastball and then burying his knuckle curve.
Will Cole Be Sharp on Saturday?
If you think that Cole will lack sharpness on Saturday, then you are wrong.
In 2022, the Yankees were in the same situation that they are currently in: they skipped the Wild Card round and participated in the ALDS.
Cole pitched Game 1 of the ALDS in that year. The Yankees run-line hit largely because Cole dominated, holding the Guardians to one run in 6.1 innings.
His performance in that game is consistent with the success he's had throughout his postseason career.
He owns a 2.93 career ERA in the postseason.
Cole vs. Royals Batters
Cole matches up excellently against Royals batters.
They rank 23rd with a .398 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Of course, this statistic is inflated by their at-bats against pitchers who are inferior to Cole.
When they encounter Cole, they will face stronger versions of those pitches that they already struggle against.
The Outlook for Kansas City's Starter
Michael Wacha starts for the Royals on Saturday.
Wacha's outlook on Saturday is negative because he matches up terribly against the Yankees.
He throws a changeup, fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, and curveball.
New York ranks first with a .455 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Wacha In The Postseason
Even if Wacha matched up well against the Yankees, he is simply a terrible postseason bet in general.
He suffers a career 5.21 postseason ERA, but it is his most recent postseason starts that justify pessimism.
In his last four postseason starts, he has allowed a combined total of 19 earned runs.
He allowed at least four earned runs in all of those starts except when he allowed three earned runs in 0.1 innings.
Bullpens
New York will use its superior bullpen to secure its big win.
Whereas the Royals' bullpen ranks 20th in ERA, New York's ranks fifth.
Takeaway
New York owns significant advantages in both the starting pitcher and bullpen matchups, which will produce a victory by multiple runs.
Given its 6-1 win in its first game back from the All-Star Break, there is no reason to think that its lineup will be rusty.
It's in any case not like the Royals' batters have shown good form in this postseason.
Cole will prolong their struggles, while he gets plenty of support from New York's lineup feasting on Wacha and Kansas City's weaker bullpen.
Kansas City's Wild Card opponent no-showed for a second straight year, but the Yankees will be ready to go as they aim to repeat their ALDS success from their last postseason trip in 2022.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-1.5) at +106 with BetOnline
