MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, April 26, 2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Brad Keller
After yielding a 2.47 ERA last season, Royal starter Brad Keller entered this season with a lot of hype.
But to say that Keller has disappointed so far would be an understatement.
Relative to last year, he has come close to tripling both his walk rate and his home run rate.
His ERA is almost five times as high because he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his four starts so far.
Keller’s struggles show that velocity is far from everything.
While he is throwing his pitches harder, opponents are having a significantly easier time generating hard contact against them.
Keller vs. Tiger Batters
Today is not the day for Keller to turn his season around because of his ballpark history.
In six games and four starts in Detroit’s Comerica Park, Keller is suffering a 1-3 record with a 4.21 ERA.
Look out especially for Harold Castro to bother him. In 10 at-bats against Keller, Castro has three hits including a triple.
Spencer Turnbull
Tiger starter Spencer Turnbull relies primarily on his 4-seam fastball and his slider.
Both pitches combine to make up 72.6 percent of his arsenal.
The Royals have improved against these two pitches in particular.
In the past week, they rank seventh in slugging against the fastball and slider from righties.
Their ability to hit Turnbull’s favorite pitches explains their solid numbers against them.
Jorge Soler, Carlos Santana, and Ryan O’Hearn all hit over .380 against Turnbull in at least 10 career at-bats.
Royal hitting will help ensure a high-scoring start to this game.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, April 26, 2021 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Austin Gomber
Rockie starter Austin Gomber may not have attractive-looking numbers.
But there are explanations for them that assuage concerns.
His high walk rate stems from his opening start close to three weeks ago where he walked seven batters.
His ERA is fine at 3.38, but his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 4.55. His FIP was always going to be higher since he started pitching is home games in high-altitude Coors Field in Denver.
Moreover, his 54.00 seventh-inning ERA shows that he can be particularly vulnerable later in outings. Today, we’ll only need Gomber to succeed through five innings.
Gomber has a higher ceiling this season largely because of his slider.
He is throwing this pitch more often and with greater success. In 15 at-bats against it, opponents have produced one hit.
Like last year, he throws primarily his 4-seam fastball. He also throws a curveball almost as often as his slider.
His curveball and his change-up are both pitches that he throws primarily to right-handed batters as Gomber is a lefty and they are both classic weapons against opposite-handed batters.
Gomber vs. Giant Batters
I like Gomber to succeed today because he promises to do well with his three favorite pitches, the fastball, slider, and curveball, all of which he throws over 20 percent of the time.
Against these three pitches from left-handed batters, the Giants rank 23rd in slugging.
While the Giants have hardly faced him, such that their overall batting numbers against Gomber are meaningless, their history against Gomber justifies negligible hope.
In 16 at-bats, only Buster Posey has a hit — which was a single — against Gomber.
Anthony DeSclafani
Giant starter Anthony DeSclafani has improved massively this year.
His improvement in ERA is way too strong to suggest that relocation to a pitcher-friendly home ballpark explains why he is producing better numbers this year.
Instead, his progression from a 7.22 ERA last year to a 2.14 ERA this year has to do with improved control. He is striking out more batters, walking fewer ones, and allowing fewer home runs.
One thing that he is doing is mixing up his pitches more thoroughly in order to remain less predictable.
Whereas he threw two pitches with over 30 percent frequency last year, he isn’t throwing a single pitch with more than 26.3 percent frequency this year.
DeSclafani vs. Rockie Batters
San Francisco’s improved starter matches up particularly well with the Rockies because they rank 28th in slugging .297 in away games against the three pitches that DeSclafani throws over 20 percent of the time, his 4-seam fastball, his slider, and his sinker.
While a few Rockie batters have strong numbers against him, they haven’t seen him in his new and improved form.
Charlie Blackmon hits him best. But Blackmon looks unreliable right now as he continues his career-worst form.
So far, his BA is .153 and his slugging rate is .271.
Blackmon’s struggles will help ensure a low-scoring start to this game.
Parlay Verdict
Expect Kansas City’s Keller to continue struggling in Detroit, although Royal batters will be able to help Keller out because they match up well with Tiger starter Turnbull.
In the evening, a pitching duel will take place between Colorado’s Gomber and San Francisco’s DeSclafani as both pitchers enjoy a strong match-up edge.
Best Bet: Royals/Tigers First-Half Over 4 at -125 & Rockies/Giants First-Half Under 4 at -120 at +230 odds with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, April 26, 2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Brad Keller
After yielding a 2.47 ERA last season, Royal starter Brad Keller entered this season with a lot of hype.
But to say that Keller has disappointed so far would be an understatement.
Relative to last year, he has come close to tripling both his walk rate and his home run rate.
His ERA is almost five times as high because he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his four starts so far.
Keller’s struggles show that velocity is far from everything.
While he is throwing his pitches harder, opponents are having a significantly easier time generating hard contact against them.
Keller vs. Tiger Batters
Today is not the day for Keller to turn his season around because of his ballpark history.
In six games and four starts in Detroit’s Comerica Park, Keller is suffering a 1-3 record with a 4.21 ERA.
Look out especially for Harold Castro to bother him. In 10 at-bats against Keller, Castro has three hits including a triple.
Spencer Turnbull
Tiger starter Spencer Turnbull relies primarily on his 4-seam fastball and his slider.
Both pitches combine to make up 72.6 percent of his arsenal.
The Royals have improved against these two pitches in particular.
In the past week, they rank seventh in slugging against the fastball and slider from righties.
Their ability to hit Turnbull’s favorite pitches explains their solid numbers against them.
Jorge Soler, Carlos Santana, and Ryan O’Hearn all hit over .380 against Turnbull in at least 10 career at-bats.
Royal hitting will help ensure a high-scoring start to this game.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, April 26, 2021 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Austin Gomber
Rockie starter Austin Gomber may not have attractive-looking numbers.
But there are explanations for them that assuage concerns.
His high walk rate stems from his opening start close to three weeks ago where he walked seven batters.
His ERA is fine at 3.38, but his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 4.55. His FIP was always going to be higher since he started pitching is home games in high-altitude Coors Field in Denver.
Moreover, his 54.00 seventh-inning ERA shows that he can be particularly vulnerable later in outings. Today, we’ll only need Gomber to succeed through five innings.
Gomber has a higher ceiling this season largely because of his slider.
He is throwing this pitch more often and with greater success. In 15 at-bats against it, opponents have produced one hit.
Like last year, he throws primarily his 4-seam fastball. He also throws a curveball almost as often as his slider.
His curveball and his change-up are both pitches that he throws primarily to right-handed batters as Gomber is a lefty and they are both classic weapons against opposite-handed batters.
Gomber vs. Giant Batters
I like Gomber to succeed today because he promises to do well with his three favorite pitches, the fastball, slider, and curveball, all of which he throws over 20 percent of the time.
Against these three pitches from left-handed batters, the Giants rank 23rd in slugging.
While the Giants have hardly faced him, such that their overall batting numbers against Gomber are meaningless, their history against Gomber justifies negligible hope.
In 16 at-bats, only Buster Posey has a hit — which was a single — against Gomber.
Anthony DeSclafani
Giant starter Anthony DeSclafani has improved massively this year.
His improvement in ERA is way too strong to suggest that relocation to a pitcher-friendly home ballpark explains why he is producing better numbers this year.
Instead, his progression from a 7.22 ERA last year to a 2.14 ERA this year has to do with improved control. He is striking out more batters, walking fewer ones, and allowing fewer home runs.
One thing that he is doing is mixing up his pitches more thoroughly in order to remain less predictable.
Whereas he threw two pitches with over 30 percent frequency last year, he isn’t throwing a single pitch with more than 26.3 percent frequency this year.
DeSclafani vs. Rockie Batters
San Francisco’s improved starter matches up particularly well with the Rockies because they rank 28th in slugging .297 in away games against the three pitches that DeSclafani throws over 20 percent of the time, his 4-seam fastball, his slider, and his sinker.
While a few Rockie batters have strong numbers against him, they haven’t seen him in his new and improved form.
Charlie Blackmon hits him best. But Blackmon looks unreliable right now as he continues his career-worst form.
So far, his BA is .153 and his slugging rate is .271.
Blackmon’s struggles will help ensure a low-scoring start to this game.
Parlay Verdict
Expect Kansas City’s Keller to continue struggling in Detroit, although Royal batters will be able to help Keller out because they match up well with Tiger starter Turnbull.
In the evening, a pitching duel will take place between Colorado’s Gomber and San Francisco’s DeSclafani as both pitchers enjoy a strong match-up edge.
Best Bet: Royals/Tigers First-Half Over 4 at -125 & Rockies/Giants First-Half Under 4 at -120 at +230 odds with Bovada
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