MLB Parlay for Today at (+321) Features Mighty Dodgers
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Kansas City starts Zack Greinke today.
Bettors may have noticed his home and away splits.
Whereas he is yielding a 1.98 home ERA, his road ERA is 6.48.
But one has to tread carefully with road statistics because they are indiscriminate.
Teams and ballparks differ so wildly, that it is usually hard to draw meaningful conclusions from a statistic like road ERA.
In Greinke's case, his array of road opponents has been ridiculously slanted against him, whereas he's had the benefit of getting to face easier lineups, such as Detroit, at home.
His road opponents have included Blue Jay, Astro, Twin, and Yankee squads that rank top-seven against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, he only played one game at home against a team that ranks top-seven in this category.
But at home, in addition to facing Detroit, he got to face Texas and Oakland teams that, like Detroit, rank bottom-five in the same category.
Greinke vs. Ray Batters
So, what is decisive for this matchup is not where Greinke is pitching.
The question is whether Tampa Bay matches up well against Greinke, like many of his road opponents, or poorly against Greinke, like Texas and Oakland.
Greinke merits optimism tonight because Tampa Bay ranks 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Ryan Yarbrough starts for Tampa Bay tonight.
Yarbrough may look scary to trust because of his high ERA.
But his ERA is heavily skewed by one performance in which he surrendered six runs in 1.2 innings to a White Sox lineup that does a vastly better job of hitting lefties than righties.
Yarbrough vs. Royal Batters
Royal batters are doing a terrible job of hitting anybody right now.
In their past six games, they exceeded two runs a single time.
The one exception was an extra-inning game. They scored the third run in the 10th inning.
Overall, during this six-game spin, they've produced all of eight runs.
During this span, they are slugging .231 against Yarbrough's favorite pitches from lefties.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts Sandy Alcantara today.
It might see tempting to back Miami at plus money today simply because Alcantara is on the mound.
However, when he's been listed as the underdog, it's typically been for good reason.
While he's been a profitable pitcher to back overall, Miami is yielding negative units in his starts in which he's listed as the underdog.
Alcantara vs. Dodger Batters
Today, Alcantara will be inordinately remote from his usual dominant self for two reasons.
One, he is historically awful in Dodger Stadium.
In his career at this venue, he suffers a 19.89 ERA in two starts.
Two, he matches up terribly with L.A. batters.
Primarily Alcantara throws a changeup, fastball, sinker, and slider.
These four pitches make up, together, 99.6 percent of his arsenal.
The Dodgers rank first in slugging against these four pitches from righties.
Among others, look out for Trea Turner and Mookie Betts.
Turner is slugging .571 in 21 at-bats against Alcantara while Betts slugs .750 in four at-bats against him.
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Ryan Pepiot starts for Los Angeles today.
He is pitching in his first professional season.
Regarding his endurance, one can expect him to face around 20 batters in a given outing.
In six starts, he's gone as long as five innings.
Outlook for Marlin Batters
Pepiot has performed strongly against teams, such as Colorado, who rank well below-average against his favorite pitches from righties.
Miami is another one of those teams: the Marlins rank 24th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
After Pepiot, L.A. can count on its top-caliber bullpen, which is rather fresh today since the Dodgers are coming off a blowout win.
In terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), the Dodger bullpen is tied for second.
Best Bet: Royals/Rays Under 7.5 at -115 & Dodgers RL at +125 at +321 odds with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Kansas City starts Zack Greinke today.
Bettors may have noticed his home and away splits.
Whereas he is yielding a 1.98 home ERA, his road ERA is 6.48.
But one has to tread carefully with road statistics because they are indiscriminate.
Teams and ballparks differ so wildly, that it is usually hard to draw meaningful conclusions from a statistic like road ERA.
In Greinke's case, his array of road opponents has been ridiculously slanted against him, whereas he's had the benefit of getting to face easier lineups, such as Detroit, at home.
His road opponents have included Blue Jay, Astro, Twin, and Yankee squads that rank top-seven against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, he only played one game at home against a team that ranks top-seven in this category.
But at home, in addition to facing Detroit, he got to face Texas and Oakland teams that, like Detroit, rank bottom-five in the same category.
Greinke vs. Ray Batters
So, what is decisive for this matchup is not where Greinke is pitching.
The question is whether Tampa Bay matches up well against Greinke, like many of his road opponents, or poorly against Greinke, like Texas and Oakland.
Greinke merits optimism tonight because Tampa Bay ranks 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Ryan Yarbrough starts for Tampa Bay tonight.
Yarbrough may look scary to trust because of his high ERA.
But his ERA is heavily skewed by one performance in which he surrendered six runs in 1.2 innings to a White Sox lineup that does a vastly better job of hitting lefties than righties.
Yarbrough vs. Royal Batters
Royal batters are doing a terrible job of hitting anybody right now.
In their past six games, they exceeded two runs a single time.
The one exception was an extra-inning game. They scored the third run in the 10th inning.
Overall, during this six-game spin, they've produced all of eight runs.
During this span, they are slugging .231 against Yarbrough's favorite pitches from lefties.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts Sandy Alcantara today.
It might see tempting to back Miami at plus money today simply because Alcantara is on the mound.
However, when he's been listed as the underdog, it's typically been for good reason.
While he's been a profitable pitcher to back overall, Miami is yielding negative units in his starts in which he's listed as the underdog.
Alcantara vs. Dodger Batters
Today, Alcantara will be inordinately remote from his usual dominant self for two reasons.
One, he is historically awful in Dodger Stadium.
In his career at this venue, he suffers a 19.89 ERA in two starts.
Two, he matches up terribly with L.A. batters.
Primarily Alcantara throws a changeup, fastball, sinker, and slider.
These four pitches make up, together, 99.6 percent of his arsenal.
The Dodgers rank first in slugging against these four pitches from righties.
Among others, look out for Trea Turner and Mookie Betts.
Turner is slugging .571 in 21 at-bats against Alcantara while Betts slugs .750 in four at-bats against him.
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Ryan Pepiot starts for Los Angeles today.
He is pitching in his first professional season.
Regarding his endurance, one can expect him to face around 20 batters in a given outing.
In six starts, he's gone as long as five innings.
Outlook for Marlin Batters
Pepiot has performed strongly against teams, such as Colorado, who rank well below-average against his favorite pitches from righties.
Miami is another one of those teams: the Marlins rank 24th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
After Pepiot, L.A. can count on its top-caliber bullpen, which is rather fresh today since the Dodgers are coming off a blowout win.
In terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), the Dodger bullpen is tied for second.
Best Bet: Royals/Rays Under 7.5 at -115 & Dodgers RL at +125 at +321 odds with BetOnline
