MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Monday, April 5, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
Danny Duffy
Royal starter Danny Duffy makes his first start of the season today and it promises to be a good one.
Duffy developed positive form towards the end of his Spring Training, allowing a combined total of two earned runs in his last 12.1 innings.
Based on career pitching numbers, he is stronger to begin the season before he runs into problems in May and June.
One could try to counter by pointing to his career numbers in Progressive Field.
But his bad history in Cleveland stems from starts that took place multiple years ago.
As the Indians became weaker offensively, Duffy’s numbers in Cleveland’s ballpark improved.
Last year, for example, Duffy gave up two earned runs in 9.2 innings at Progressive Field.
Duffy vs. Cleveland Batters
As a lefty, Danny Duffy is at his best against left-handed batters. In his career, they hit .218 against him.
Despite having some guys who can attempt to hit from the right-side of the plate, the Indians as a team have not performed much better.
In a combined total of 101 at-bats, active Indian batters hit .238 and slug a meagre .347 against Duffy.
Cleveland also doesn’t present many promising batters because its lineup is rather lefty-heavy, especially in the outfield.
Cesar Hernandez, while a switch-hitter, hit .51 better against righties than lefties last season.
Logan Allen
After oddsmakers opened this game’s over/under at eight runs, folks are showing their love for the “over” by betting this game’s over/under up to nine.
Logan Allen is one reason why I don’t understand the interest in the “over.”
Allen produced a dominant Spring Training, allowing one earned run in 14 innings of work. He struck out 18 batters while walking three.
His track record includes success against a Rockie team that is thriving so far against left-handed pitching. But even though Allen is a lefty, the Rockies couldn’t touch him.
Today, he possesses the additional advantage of having only faced two Royal batters.
One thing that makes him new, transformed, and better this season is the expansion of his pitching repertoire.
He has added a split-change, which should be an additional weapon against opposite-handed batters.
His improved repertoire will help keep the first five innings low-scoring.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, April 5, 2021 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
Trevor Rogers
Marlin starter Trevor Rogers found positive form towards the end of Spring Training as he allowed three earned runs in his final 14.2 innings
Perhaps most notably, he produced 29 strikeouts in his 19 innings of preseason work. HIs strikeout total places him in top-level company among previous Spring Training strikeout leaders like superstar Max Scherzer.
Rogers boasts a high-velocity fastball with good movement that he possesses the confidence to consistently place within the strike zone.
While his fastball will average around 94 mph, he can also quickly change pace for the batter by implementing his change-up.
With this latter pitch, he induces a lot of ground balls and even more whiffs.
Rogers is in a good spot today against a Cardinal lineup that hasn’t seen him at all.
In recent years, a lot of young pitchers have exploited the Cardinals’ inexperience against them.
One aspect about Rogers that will be useful today is the fact that he’s a southpaw.
Cardinal batters are off to a slow start against southpaws, hitting .182 against them.
In order to succeed today, Rogers will want to make ample use of his change-up, which is a characteristic weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
St. Louis starter Daniel Ponce de Leon sees a Miami lineup for the fifth time in the last five weeks.
In Spring Training, Ponce de Leon threw 12.2 innings against the Marlins.
But Ponce de Leon isn’t a puzzle. He relies heavily on his fastball and his exorbitant walk and opposing home run rates in recent years betray a significant difficulty with control.
Marlin batters did indeed figure him out, scoring four runs in his last outing against him.
This March 18 effort from Miami batters complements the positive one that Houston produced a week later against Ponce de Leon.
So since March 18, Ponce de Leon has allowed seven runs in 9.1 innings.
One Marlin batter who promises to perpetuate Ponce de Leon’s problems is Starling Marte.
Marte is 4-for-7 with a homer in his career against Ponce de Leon.
He is one additional reason why today’s first-five match-up favors the Marlins.
Parlay Verdict
Expect both Duffy and Allen to perpetuate their most recent Spring Training success.
Also expect Miami to have the edge in starting pitching.
For the above reasons, parlay the first-five “under” between Kansas City and Cleveland with the Marlins first-five ML.
Best Bet: Royals/Indians First-Half Under & Marlins First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Monday, April 5, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
Danny Duffy
Royal starter Danny Duffy makes his first start of the season today and it promises to be a good one.
Duffy developed positive form towards the end of his Spring Training, allowing a combined total of two earned runs in his last 12.1 innings.
Based on career pitching numbers, he is stronger to begin the season before he runs into problems in May and June.
One could try to counter by pointing to his career numbers in Progressive Field.
But his bad history in Cleveland stems from starts that took place multiple years ago.
As the Indians became weaker offensively, Duffy’s numbers in Cleveland’s ballpark improved.
Last year, for example, Duffy gave up two earned runs in 9.2 innings at Progressive Field.
Duffy vs. Cleveland Batters
As a lefty, Danny Duffy is at his best against left-handed batters. In his career, they hit .218 against him.
Despite having some guys who can attempt to hit from the right-side of the plate, the Indians as a team have not performed much better.
In a combined total of 101 at-bats, active Indian batters hit .238 and slug a meagre .347 against Duffy.
Cleveland also doesn’t present many promising batters because its lineup is rather lefty-heavy, especially in the outfield.
Cesar Hernandez, while a switch-hitter, hit .51 better against righties than lefties last season.
Logan Allen
After oddsmakers opened this game’s over/under at eight runs, folks are showing their love for the “over” by betting this game’s over/under up to nine.
Logan Allen is one reason why I don’t understand the interest in the “over.”
Allen produced a dominant Spring Training, allowing one earned run in 14 innings of work. He struck out 18 batters while walking three.
His track record includes success against a Rockie team that is thriving so far against left-handed pitching. But even though Allen is a lefty, the Rockies couldn’t touch him.
Today, he possesses the additional advantage of having only faced two Royal batters.
One thing that makes him new, transformed, and better this season is the expansion of his pitching repertoire.
He has added a split-change, which should be an additional weapon against opposite-handed batters.
His improved repertoire will help keep the first five innings low-scoring.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, April 5, 2021 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
Trevor Rogers
Marlin starter Trevor Rogers found positive form towards the end of Spring Training as he allowed three earned runs in his final 14.2 innings
Perhaps most notably, he produced 29 strikeouts in his 19 innings of preseason work. HIs strikeout total places him in top-level company among previous Spring Training strikeout leaders like superstar Max Scherzer.
Rogers boasts a high-velocity fastball with good movement that he possesses the confidence to consistently place within the strike zone.
While his fastball will average around 94 mph, he can also quickly change pace for the batter by implementing his change-up.
With this latter pitch, he induces a lot of ground balls and even more whiffs.
Rogers is in a good spot today against a Cardinal lineup that hasn’t seen him at all.
In recent years, a lot of young pitchers have exploited the Cardinals’ inexperience against them.
One aspect about Rogers that will be useful today is the fact that he’s a southpaw.
Cardinal batters are off to a slow start against southpaws, hitting .182 against them.
In order to succeed today, Rogers will want to make ample use of his change-up, which is a characteristic weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
St. Louis starter Daniel Ponce de Leon sees a Miami lineup for the fifth time in the last five weeks.
In Spring Training, Ponce de Leon threw 12.2 innings against the Marlins.
But Ponce de Leon isn’t a puzzle. He relies heavily on his fastball and his exorbitant walk and opposing home run rates in recent years betray a significant difficulty with control.
Marlin batters did indeed figure him out, scoring four runs in his last outing against him.
This March 18 effort from Miami batters complements the positive one that Houston produced a week later against Ponce de Leon.
So since March 18, Ponce de Leon has allowed seven runs in 9.1 innings.
One Marlin batter who promises to perpetuate Ponce de Leon’s problems is Starling Marte.
Marte is 4-for-7 with a homer in his career against Ponce de Leon.
He is one additional reason why today’s first-five match-up favors the Marlins.
Parlay Verdict
Expect both Duffy and Allen to perpetuate their most recent Spring Training success.
Also expect Miami to have the edge in starting pitching.
For the above reasons, parlay the first-five “under” between Kansas City and Cleveland with the Marlins first-five ML.
Best Bet: Royals/Indians First-Half Under & Marlins First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
