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Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Underrated Pitcher
Cardinal starter Steven Matz has an awful ERA mostly because he allowed seven earned runs in his first start in a Cardinal uniform.
Matz's 2.03 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), indicates, however, that he is performing very well this season.
His last start is a characteristic example of the tough luck that he has endured this season, which has negatively affected his ERA even beyond his opening start.
Going against his former team, the Mets, Matz managed to induce soft contact on 25 percent of his pitches.
Batters made hard contact on his pitches with substantially lower frequency.
However, Matz yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of .500.
His high opposing BABIP is an unfortunate fact that helps explain why his ERA is so much higher than his FIP.
Matz's Stuff
He is performing well because he is inducing a lot of soft contact.
This season, Matz's stuff appears better because he is striking out batters at a career-best rate.
Also, he has never before done such a good job of limiting home runs.
One improvement that he made is to add significant horizontal movement to his curveball.
Despite this movement, he ably locates it often in the lowest corners of the strike zone, as heat maps show.
Matz vs. Royal Batters
Matz matches up well against Royal batters because he is a lefty and they rank 27thin slugging .290 against left-handed pitchers.
Expect him to dominate Carlos Santana, for example, who is hitting awfully this season and is 2-for-17 (.118) in his career facing Matz.
Also, Matz is in a nice spot today because he is characteristically more of a daytime pitcher.
His career ERA is 1.37 better daytime than it is nighttime.
Zack Greinke
The "under' is 3-1 in Greinke's starts this year as he continues to be a highly effective pitcher.
Greinke is not the kind of pitcher who will blow batters away.
Instead, he makes himself unpredictable in many ways.
For example, his expanded repertoire -- he throws four different pitches with 17 to 36 percent frequency -- makes it harder for batters to know what is coming.
He throws all four of these pitches -- the fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup -- well. Each one yields a slugging rate of .350 or much lower.
His fastball is his favorite pitch and justifiably so.
Heatmaps indicate his ability to distribute this pitch evenly along the different parts of the strike zone.
This pitch boats a highly unusual amount of horizontal movement, making it more difficult for batters to keep track of.
Greinke vs. Cardinal Batters
St. Louis hitters are just the right-handed-heavy group that you want to back against left-handed pitchers.
However, Greinke is a righty.
Whereas the Cards are slugging .497 against lefties, their slugging rate is .305 against righties. This is a monumental disparity.
Plus, Greinke isn't just any righty, he's a well-proven one who currently boasts strong form.
Royal Bullpen
I recommend a first-half play on this game because the Royal bullpen is one of baseball's worst in terms of ERA.
The Royals have few good relievers and two of them featured in their game yesterday.
This game will be a duel between starting pitchers. But once Greinke leaves the game, I don't want any part of the total.
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
On Fire
Baseball is a sport where team rhythm is relatively important because teams play just about every day and their form carries from one game to the next.
The Twins are enjoying solid team rhythm right now. They have won nine of their last 10.
They just outscored Tampa Bay 16-4 in their past two games at the Trop.
Moreover, they scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight games. The Twins are thus hitting well and consistently so.
Underrated Pitcher
Minnesota starter Chris Paddack is underrated in that his 3.68 ERA masks an even much more solid 1.69 FIP.
His ability to prevent opposing batters from making hard contact on his pitches, his superb control evident in an amazingly low walk rate, and his avoidance of the long ball all contribute to the strong performance that he's enjoying so far on his new team.
Hitter-Pitcher Matchups
I like Paddack especially tonight because he throws three pitches with over 20 percent frequency, a fastball, changeup, and curveball, and Baltimore ranks 24thin slugging against his pitches from righties.
Conversely, Baltimore starter Tyler Wells promises to struggle tonight because he is absolutely a fly-ball pitcher.
He is just the guy who the Twins want to face because their slugging rate is .437 against fly-ball pitchers.
They perform, by far, their best against this type of pitcher.
Expect Carlos Correa, for example, to thrive. He is 10-for-16 in his past four games.
Best Bet: Parlay Royals/Cardinals First-Half Under & Twins RL at +108 with BetOnline (Odds TBA)
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Underrated Pitcher
Cardinal starter Steven Matz has an awful ERA mostly because he allowed seven earned runs in his first start in a Cardinal uniform.
Matz's 2.03 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), indicates, however, that he is performing very well this season.
His last start is a characteristic example of the tough luck that he has endured this season, which has negatively affected his ERA even beyond his opening start.
Going against his former team, the Mets, Matz managed to induce soft contact on 25 percent of his pitches.
Batters made hard contact on his pitches with substantially lower frequency.
However, Matz yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of .500.
His high opposing BABIP is an unfortunate fact that helps explain why his ERA is so much higher than his FIP.
Matz's Stuff
He is performing well because he is inducing a lot of soft contact.
This season, Matz's stuff appears better because he is striking out batters at a career-best rate.
Also, he has never before done such a good job of limiting home runs.
One improvement that he made is to add significant horizontal movement to his curveball.
Despite this movement, he ably locates it often in the lowest corners of the strike zone, as heat maps show.
Matz vs. Royal Batters
Matz matches up well against Royal batters because he is a lefty and they rank 27thin slugging .290 against left-handed pitchers.
Expect him to dominate Carlos Santana, for example, who is hitting awfully this season and is 2-for-17 (.118) in his career facing Matz.
Also, Matz is in a nice spot today because he is characteristically more of a daytime pitcher.
His career ERA is 1.37 better daytime than it is nighttime.
Zack Greinke
The "under' is 3-1 in Greinke's starts this year as he continues to be a highly effective pitcher.
Greinke is not the kind of pitcher who will blow batters away.
Instead, he makes himself unpredictable in many ways.
For example, his expanded repertoire -- he throws four different pitches with 17 to 36 percent frequency -- makes it harder for batters to know what is coming.
He throws all four of these pitches -- the fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup -- well. Each one yields a slugging rate of .350 or much lower.
His fastball is his favorite pitch and justifiably so.
Heatmaps indicate his ability to distribute this pitch evenly along the different parts of the strike zone.
This pitch boats a highly unusual amount of horizontal movement, making it more difficult for batters to keep track of.
Greinke vs. Cardinal Batters
St. Louis hitters are just the right-handed-heavy group that you want to back against left-handed pitchers.
However, Greinke is a righty.
Whereas the Cards are slugging .497 against lefties, their slugging rate is .305 against righties. This is a monumental disparity.
Plus, Greinke isn't just any righty, he's a well-proven one who currently boasts strong form.
Royal Bullpen
I recommend a first-half play on this game because the Royal bullpen is one of baseball's worst in terms of ERA.
The Royals have few good relievers and two of them featured in their game yesterday.
This game will be a duel between starting pitchers. But once Greinke leaves the game, I don't want any part of the total.
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
On Fire
Baseball is a sport where team rhythm is relatively important because teams play just about every day and their form carries from one game to the next.
The Twins are enjoying solid team rhythm right now. They have won nine of their last 10.
They just outscored Tampa Bay 16-4 in their past two games at the Trop.
Moreover, they scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight games. The Twins are thus hitting well and consistently so.
Underrated Pitcher
Minnesota starter Chris Paddack is underrated in that his 3.68 ERA masks an even much more solid 1.69 FIP.
His ability to prevent opposing batters from making hard contact on his pitches, his superb control evident in an amazingly low walk rate, and his avoidance of the long ball all contribute to the strong performance that he's enjoying so far on his new team.
Hitter-Pitcher Matchups
I like Paddack especially tonight because he throws three pitches with over 20 percent frequency, a fastball, changeup, and curveball, and Baltimore ranks 24thin slugging against his pitches from righties.
Conversely, Baltimore starter Tyler Wells promises to struggle tonight because he is absolutely a fly-ball pitcher.
He is just the guy who the Twins want to face because their slugging rate is .437 against fly-ball pitchers.
They perform, by far, their best against this type of pitcher.
Expect Carlos Correa, for example, to thrive. He is 10-for-16 in his past four games.
Best Bet: Parlay Royals/Cardinals First-Half Under & Twins RL at +108 with BetOnline (Odds TBA)
