Red Sox Partake In Royal Rumble; Dodgers Repeat Blowout Of St. Louis
Kansas City (40-74) at Boston (60-55)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: "Over"
Boston's Andrew Cashner (10-6, 4.44 ERA) shows poor form lately, having yielded an ERA of 6.00 or higher in three of his last four starts. Given his general struggles, he's a strong "over" pitcher. The "over" is 14-7 (66.7%) in his starts and 3-0 in his home starts as a member of Boston (it was 5-1 in his home starts as an Oriole).
Righties do the most damage to Cashner, even though he's right-handed. They hit .282 and slug .496 against him. Facing righties, Cashner generally struggles to nail the outside border of the zone or to work inside. Instead, he often leaves his pitches over more hittable parts of the plate. They land, for instance, with 6.73 percent frequency down the middle.
He's particularly ineffective against righties because he usually throws pitches with arm-side movement, which means that, because he's right-handed, these pitches are running towards right-handed batters, who more easily hit these pitches than ones that run away from them.
Kansas City matches up well versus Cashner with its righty-heavy lineup. Its three leaders in BA are all right-handed. Watch out for Whit Merrifield, who's 2-for-4 (.500) with two doubles versus Cashner. KC has mustered only 37 at-bats against Cashner, but bats .324 and slug .649.
Jakob Junis (6-10, 5.03 ERA) has contributed to Kansas City's recent losing streak. He's allowed 10 runs combined in his past two starts.
Junis has the variety of a reliever and the effectivity of someone who's unreliable. His fastball and slider combine for 77 percent of his arsenal -- he hasn't developed an effective third pitch like starters generally do as they mature. Opponents love to see his fastball, which they hit .323 against. It ranks in the 30th percentile in velocity, in the ninth in spin, and it lands with 8.48 percent frequency in the middle of the plate, easily more than anywhere else.
FIve different Boston batters slug at least .600 against Junis in at least three at-bats. Although they haven't seen him much, they promise to succeed against him because, since the All-Star Break, they rank second in slugging against the fastball and slider from righties combined and Junis' fastball is one of the worst. Watch out for Rafael Devers, who's 3-for-6 (.500) with three doubles in his career versus Junis.
In terms of bullpens, KC's ranks in the bottom half in terms of ERA and Boston's nearly does. Both pens should get plenty of work, too. The "over" is in a great spot with Boston favored: it has hit in 66 percent of 97 such instances.
St. Louis (58-53) at Los Angeles Dodgers (75-40)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL
St. Louis' Miles Mikolas (7-11, 4.00 ERA) is regressing this year just like sabermetric models had predicted him to before the season. He's been struggling especially away from home, where his ERA is 6.75 compared to 1.88 in St. Louis. Given his road problems, the Cards yield -2.8 units in his road starts.
Mikolas is more conventional in that, as a righty, he struggles mostly against lefties. But their degree of success against him is beyond conventional, hitting .298 and slugging .493. In order to disarm opposite-handed batters, pitchers typically like to develop a curveball and change-up in order to keep them off-balance with a change of pace. But both pitches are Mikolas' least-frequent ones.
His struggles against lefties is relevant given L.A.'s host of high-quality ones. Watch out for Cody Bellinger, who slugs .668 against righties and .731 at home. Even though he's a righty, Justin Turner is hitting .301 against same-handed pitchers.
L.A.'s Clayton Kershaw (10-2, 2.85 ERA) has been his usual dominant self, having allowed a combined total of six runs in his past five starts. The Dodgers have won his last four starts each by at least four runs. Despite all the chalk that oddsmakers ask us to lay with him, he's L.A.'s second-most profitable pitcher this season. In his home outings, L.A. is 10-1, yielding +8.1 units.
Sensationalists have pointed to the decline in Kershaw's fastball velocity and in his strikeout rate -- especially in that of his slider. But he still enjoys pinpoint control, allowing fewer than two walks per innings. Plus, his four most frequent pitch locations are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
Unlike Mikolas, Kershaw has faced his opposing lineup many times. But nearly a third of St. Louis' at-bats against Kershaw belong to Dexter Fowler. Of the other three who've faced Kershaw more than 10 times, Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .222, Matt Carpenter has one double in 26 at-bats, and Marcell Ozuna bats .189. The rest of the team is 3-for-13 (.230) with a double.
At all events, the Cards are enduring a major slump, having produced two runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. They've lost four of their last five and their last three road games each by multiple runs.
Kansas City (40-74) at Boston (60-55)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: "Over"
Boston's Andrew Cashner (10-6, 4.44 ERA) shows poor form lately, having yielded an ERA of 6.00 or higher in three of his last four starts. Given his general struggles, he's a strong "over" pitcher. The "over" is 14-7 (66.7%) in his starts and 3-0 in his home starts as a member of Boston (it was 5-1 in his home starts as an Oriole).
Righties do the most damage to Cashner, even though he's right-handed. They hit .282 and slug .496 against him. Facing righties, Cashner generally struggles to nail the outside border of the zone or to work inside. Instead, he often leaves his pitches over more hittable parts of the plate. They land, for instance, with 6.73 percent frequency down the middle.
He's particularly ineffective against righties because he usually throws pitches with arm-side movement, which means that, because he's right-handed, these pitches are running towards right-handed batters, who more easily hit these pitches than ones that run away from them.
Kansas City matches up well versus Cashner with its righty-heavy lineup. Its three leaders in BA are all right-handed. Watch out for Whit Merrifield, who's 2-for-4 (.500) with two doubles versus Cashner. KC has mustered only 37 at-bats against Cashner, but bats .324 and slug .649.
Jakob Junis (6-10, 5.03 ERA) has contributed to Kansas City's recent losing streak. He's allowed 10 runs combined in his past two starts.
Junis has the variety of a reliever and the effectivity of someone who's unreliable. His fastball and slider combine for 77 percent of his arsenal -- he hasn't developed an effective third pitch like starters generally do as they mature. Opponents love to see his fastball, which they hit .323 against. It ranks in the 30th percentile in velocity, in the ninth in spin, and it lands with 8.48 percent frequency in the middle of the plate, easily more than anywhere else.
FIve different Boston batters slug at least .600 against Junis in at least three at-bats. Although they haven't seen him much, they promise to succeed against him because, since the All-Star Break, they rank second in slugging against the fastball and slider from righties combined and Junis' fastball is one of the worst. Watch out for Rafael Devers, who's 3-for-6 (.500) with three doubles in his career versus Junis.
In terms of bullpens, KC's ranks in the bottom half in terms of ERA and Boston's nearly does. Both pens should get plenty of work, too. The "over" is in a great spot with Boston favored: it has hit in 66 percent of 97 such instances.
St. Louis (58-53) at Los Angeles Dodgers (75-40)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL
St. Louis' Miles Mikolas (7-11, 4.00 ERA) is regressing this year just like sabermetric models had predicted him to before the season. He's been struggling especially away from home, where his ERA is 6.75 compared to 1.88 in St. Louis. Given his road problems, the Cards yield -2.8 units in his road starts.
Mikolas is more conventional in that, as a righty, he struggles mostly against lefties. But their degree of success against him is beyond conventional, hitting .298 and slugging .493. In order to disarm opposite-handed batters, pitchers typically like to develop a curveball and change-up in order to keep them off-balance with a change of pace. But both pitches are Mikolas' least-frequent ones.
His struggles against lefties is relevant given L.A.'s host of high-quality ones. Watch out for Cody Bellinger, who slugs .668 against righties and .731 at home. Even though he's a righty, Justin Turner is hitting .301 against same-handed pitchers.
L.A.'s Clayton Kershaw (10-2, 2.85 ERA) has been his usual dominant self, having allowed a combined total of six runs in his past five starts. The Dodgers have won his last four starts each by at least four runs. Despite all the chalk that oddsmakers ask us to lay with him, he's L.A.'s second-most profitable pitcher this season. In his home outings, L.A. is 10-1, yielding +8.1 units.
Sensationalists have pointed to the decline in Kershaw's fastball velocity and in his strikeout rate -- especially in that of his slider. But he still enjoys pinpoint control, allowing fewer than two walks per innings. Plus, his four most frequent pitch locations are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
Unlike Mikolas, Kershaw has faced his opposing lineup many times. But nearly a third of St. Louis' at-bats against Kershaw belong to Dexter Fowler. Of the other three who've faced Kershaw more than 10 times, Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .222, Matt Carpenter has one double in 26 at-bats, and Marcell Ozuna bats .189. The rest of the team is 3-for-13 (.230) with a double.
At all events, the Cards are enduring a major slump, having produced two runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. They've lost four of their last five and their last three road games each by multiple runs.
