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Rookie of the Year Odds Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Rundown Of Current Rookie of the Year Odds






Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Check out the complete list at Bovada

Joe Burrow: +240
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +700
Tua Tagovailoa: +800
Jonathan Taylor: +900
D’Andre Swift: +1200
...


Joe Burrow (+240)

Joe Burrow would become the third number one-overall pick to win the award since 2011. He’d also become the first AFC player to win it since Vince Young in 2006.

Burrow distinguishes himself with his accuracy in a variety of situations.

He excels at converting pass attempts longer than 10 yards.

According to PFF's statistics, he excels under pressure or in a clean pocket and when plays are quicker or slower to develop.

At LSU, he was pressured on 30 percent of his dropbacks.

Under pressure, he completed 69 percent of his passes and accumulated a 146.5 passer rating.

Skeptics point out that Burrow was surrounded by a lot of talent.

While this assertion of surrounding talent wasn’t particularly accurate with respect to his pass protection, it was in view of his wide receivers.

Still, Burrow was extremely accurate when he had to fit the ball into tight windows, which happened often enough.

At 2:10 in the following video, you see an example of him hitting his receiver on a fade route downfield near the sideline. Then you see him anticipate and time a well-placed ball in the middle of the field.



He won’t be without weapons in Cincinnati.

AJ Green is one of the best receivers in the game.

He’ll also get to throw to Tyler Boyd, who stepped up in Green’s absence last year. Boyd accumulated 90 receptions and 1,046 yards.

Fellow rookie Tee Higgins hopes to make an immediate impact.

Don’t forget speedster John Ross, whose 4.22 40-yard dash makes him a big play candidate.

Statistically speaking, Burrow’s improvement with deep ball accuracy was tremendous in his final season at LSU.


Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+700)

Yes, the NFL is a passing league. But running backs have also recently enjoyed significant success in winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.

In 2017, Alvin Kamara won the award. In 2018, it was Saquon Barkley.

Like both players, Edwards-Helaire is extremely elusive.

You see here that it’s really hard to bring him down in open space:

https://twitter.com/NFLFilmReview/status/1250949674103701505?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1250949674103701505&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bucsnation.com%2F2020%2F4%2F21%2F21228866%2Fbucs-draft-profile-running-back-clyde-edwards-helaire-2020-nfl-draft


CEH has available to him nice cutting ability, spin moves, and a variety of other tools with which to make defenders miss.

His elusiveness in open space is aided by his apt route-running and excellent hands.

These traits make him an attractive fit in a loaded Kansas City offense that has too many weapons to account for.

KC will optimize and make use of CEH’s abilities because of its proclivity to spread out defenses.

Of course, he’s also useful in between the tackles where his low center of gravity contributed to his 86 percent broken tackle rate, which is highest among 2020 rookie running backs.


Tua Tagovailoa (+800)

Tua has a long and frightening injury history that has helped prevent him from ever completing a full season while at Alabama.

This is important because if Tua misses enough games, history offers negligible hope.

Only one quarterback has ever won Offensive Rookie of the Year while starting fewer than 12 games. That player was Hall of Fame legend Dan Marino.

Still, Tua is worth considering because of what he’s capable of when he’s on the field.

Tua distinguishes himself with great pocket presence supported by smooth footwork, the ability to go through progressions, and his ability to use his eyes to manipulate defenders.

Yes, he was surrounded by a stacked corps of receivers. But film footage shows his consistent ball placement accuracy.

In particular, the chemistry that he developed with his receivers and his intelligent vision enabled him to hit them in stride even before they appeared open.

You can see what I mean here:



While Tua will be surrounded by lower talent at Miami, he still carries several crucial tools.






Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Check out the complete list at Bovada

Chase Young: +200
Isaiah Simmons: +450
Patrick Queen: +900
Jeff Okudah: +1200
Kenneth Murray: +1400
...


Chase Young (+200)

Despite missing two games, Chase Young accumulated 16.5 sacks last year at Ohio State.

While his pass-rushing skills are evidently superb, he’s also a difference-maker in the run game.

Opposing blockers struggle to contain him because of his explosive burst off the snap.

He’s quick to attack and quick in pursuit. He’s also really strong and makes excellent use both of his hands and of his lower body.

You can watch all of his sacks here:



He’ll fit nicely into Washington’s 4-3 scheme.

Trend-wise, Young has going for him the following:

Ohio State has produced three of the past four Defensive Rookies of the Year.

Also, the past two defenders to win the award were edge rushers.


Isaiah Simmons (+450)

Simmons is unique. While at Clemson, he spent over 100 snaps at five different positions, including cornerback, safety, and linebacker.

His agility and movement make him formidable in coverage where he earned the highest career PFF grade among linebackers in the 2020 Draft.

Simmons showcased these traits in the Combine where he was the only linebacker to run a sub-4.40 40-yard dash.

He’s also a reliable open field tackler. Last year's stats say a lot: 104 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks, and three interceptions.

With his positional versatility, it’s up to Arizona to utilize him well in its 3-4 scheme by showcasing his wide range of strengths.

Check out some of his highlights here:



Patrick Queen (+900)

The inside linebacker out of LSU distinguishes himself with his speed and versatility.

Queen ably covers opposing tight ends and he can hang with a running back in coverage.

His 4.5 40-yard dash speed also enables him to be effective in sideline-to-sideline pursuit.

Furthermore, scouts note his positive instincts that he employs to anticipate plays and to sniff out misdirection.

He illustrated a strong IQ despite playing in relatively fewer games.

Queen will need a high IQ to adapt to Baltimore’s defense, which will utilize his versatility to complicate life for opposing offenses.

While he may be undersized and lack a bit of physicality, his ability to line up anywhere made him extremely desirable for Baltimore.

The rookie is also sure to make an instant impact because of how thin Baltimore is at linebacker according to its depth chart.

Look at his highlights here:

 
CEH seems like he in best spot to have Immediate impact and possibly a monster season. Feel like he a lock to have double digit touchdowns. Don’t expect Tua will play enough games his rookie year, and I don’t like burrow.
 
I just figure CEH wont get enough touches.

who does kc really have standing in his way? Damian Williams was great in the SB but after him they don’t have much. I suspect be a pretty even split between him and CEH long as the rookie proves capable in pass protection. He should catch a ton of passes this upcoming season me thinks. Imagine Kc is gonna continue scoring a bunch of points so his touchdown total outta be sexy even if his touches somewhat limited.
 
who does kc really have standing in his way? Damian Williams was great in the SB but after him they don’t have much. I suspect be a pretty even split between him and CEH long as the rookie proves capable in pass protection. He should catch a ton of passes this upcoming season me thinks. Imagine Kc is gonna continue scoring a bunch of points so his touchdown total outta be sexy even if his touches somewhat limited.

Just too many other weapons. At best, he's their 3rd best non qb skill player.
 
Just too many other weapons. At best, he's their 3rd best non qb skill player.

that fair. I didn’t really look at it that way. I focused more on the running back depth chart. Could be there not enough balls to go around. You know Sammy Watkins will miss a handful of games tho.
 
Kc running backs did have around 90 catches combined last year. Andy Reid teams have always been really good in the screen game as well. I think he should be in line to catch at least 50 balls.
 
Grabbed Queen at 15/1, think the Ravens will have the league’s best defense and he’s gonna be put in some favorable positions to rack up cleanup tackles and takeaways more attributable to his teammates. The opportunity and national profile being on a good team are there.

Grabbed pittman Jr at 30/1, bad number for him I’m realizing but so be it. Rivers loves big receivers and teams will bracket Hilton to start things off. There’s a universe where he becomes the go to receiver for a division champ. That’s the type of dart throw it’ll take to beat Burrow, any backs below 10/1 not worth it imo. Clyde will deservingly get no credit at all for being Mahomes’ running back, Taylor sharing touches, and the other guys not on good enough offenses.
 
Grabbed Queen at 15/1, think the Ravens will have the league’s best defense and he’s gonna be put in some favorable positions to rack up cleanup tackles and takeaways more attributable to his teammates. The opportunity and national profile being on a good team are there.

Grabbed pittman Jr at 30/1, bad number for him I’m realizing but so be it. Rivers loves big receivers and teams will bracket Hilton to start things off. There’s a universe where he becomes the go to receiver for a division champ. That’s the type of dart throw it’ll take to beat Burrow, any backs below 10/1 not worth it imo. Clyde will deservingly get no credit at all for being Mahomes’ running back, Taylor sharing touches, and the other guys not on good enough offenses.

I agree with ravens defense being best in the league so that certainly makes some sense. They were excellent last year once smith got healthy and they added peters. They blitzed like crazy which I’m assuming was partly because their lack of true pass rushers which they have seemingly rectified this offseason, Queen should definitely have opportunities to make plays and shine!! Like that play.

I really like pittman too although I think colts success is gonna primarily come from the running game and Taylor gonna be a big part of that so I would fear at best they will be splitting votes which probably hurt both. I do agree there lot of options that worth a shot to beat out Burrow but my dislike of him is pretty well documented, lol,

I don’t really follow the thinking behind CEH not getting credit? If he catches a whole bunch of balls which I think a given, and he scores double digit touchdowns which I think at least a decent possibility in that offense, I’m not sure why he wouldn’t get the recognition for it?
 
I agree with ravens defense being best in the league so that certainly makes some sense. They were excellent last year once smith got healthy and they added peters. They blitzed like crazy which I’m assuming was partly because their lack of true pass rushers which they have seemingly rectified this offseason, Queen should definitely have opportunities to make plays and shine!! Like that play.

I really like pittman too although I think colts success is gonna primarily come from the running game and Taylor gonna be a big part of that so I would fear at best they will be splitting votes which probably hurt both. I do agree there lot of options that worth a shot to beat out Burrow but my dislike of him is pretty well documented, lol,

I don’t really follow the thinking behind CEH not getting credit? If he catches a whole bunch of balls which I think a given, and he scores double digit touchdowns which I think at least a decent possibility in that offense, I’m not sure why he wouldn’t get the recognition for it?

I think that it will be relatively clear this season that Andy Reid could drive down to a local high school, blindly pluck a running back off the football team, and stick him into that offense, and that back would produce above league average numbers in that ecosystem.
 
I think that it will be relatively clear this season that Andy Reid could drive down to a local high school, blindly pluck a running back off the football team, and stick him into that offense, and that back would produce above league average numbers in that ecosystem.

I don’t disagree but if CEH is their guy and he gets the counting stats I don’t think he will be punished cause he on kc, honestly I think quite the opposite, being on the 1 seed should help his cause imo.
 
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