Rod's NBL Round 4

[rod_steel]

YTD (7-3-0) +20.70 units

o187.5 Taipans v Tigers

Both teams are due to put up some numbers after sluggish starts to the season offensively, highlighted by the fact that the Taipans are a perfect 5-0 in "UNDERS" this season. This bet is more me playing the numbers as statistically no team in the NBL has had such a start to their season over the past 7 years.

May add a bet in the later game during the Taipans-Tigers one.

 

[rod_steel]

No good there, looks like the Taipans will continue to be the unders bet this season if the books continue to set totals in the mid 180's for them. Apart from Black and Jawai they offer nothing on offense.

No bet in the late game. Back later.

 

[rod_steel]

Playing the total in the game over in NZ, may add a side later

u200.5 Breakers v Crocs (4)

Whilst the Breakers have started the season 0-2 their defensive efforts in both games have shown a marked improvement from last season which in the main has been on the back of Lemanis' making defense more of a focus in both preseason and the start of the regular season. Also both team's on offense are still adjusting to their new respective rosters and with Homicide Williams expected to suit up tonight for the Crocs expect more of the same from the Crocs as they adjust again to a new player into their system.

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck Rod

 

[rod_steel]

Thanks Fondy

Adding a small bet on the side

Crocs +8 over Breakers (2.5)

Struggling to justify the Breakers laying that many points to anyone at the moment. Granted they have played the Taipans who are a top 6 quality team and the Pigs who are of playoff quality as well, they have been struggling to with team chemistry and are missing shots down the stretch of games. Crocs are clearly going to struggling this season but apart from the Bullets game have been competitive for the first half of games until their lack of depth have cost them in the second halves.

 

[rod_steel]

Both cashed

Squared up again for the round. Not sure if I'll play tomorrow's game as there are a couple I like for the weekend

 

[rod_steel]

Friday night...

Hawks +3 over Razorbacks

u202.5 Hawks Razorbacks (2.5)

Razorbacks and Hawks have started the season in differing fashion with the Pigs starting strongly going 3-1 and the Hawks still looking for their first win however one has to see that their respective records are slightly exaggerated based on the opposition they have played. The Pigs have beaten the Dragons, Breakers away who both are at the bottom end of the table with a combined record of 1-5 with their only win of note IMO being the win over the Cats at Homebush. The Hawks have had a brutal schedule to begin this season having had to play arguably 3 of the best 4 teams in the league this season in Brisbane, Melbourne and Cairns. Whilst the scorelines have been fairly one sided there were signs of improvement last Friday at the Snakepit when they were leading for much of the game against the Taipans only to be sunk by Black down the stretch.

Taking the obligatory under as that has been the theme of the start to the season, though only a small play given the potentency of the Pigs offence and their unwillingness to play much D this season. Both Peters and Tait are expected to play tonight for the Hawks which means they should have a full roster tonight.

 

[rod_steel]

An incredible offensive explosion from the Hawks tonight. Hawks side cashes with the under not even close in the end.

Still will take the +ve for the night.

Back tomorrow

 

[rod_steel]

Few for tonight:

o206.5 Tigers v Dragons (8)

Dragons +12.5 over Tigers (4)

Dragons ML over Tigers - (+675) (1)

 

[rod_steel]

Only the Dragons cover with the over and the ML going down

Lost a tick under 3 units for the round so far, will have a look at the Sunday lines before deciding whether to call it a day for the round.

 

[rod_steel]

For Sunday

u195.5 Dragons v Kings

 

[rod_steel]

Under cashes

Round 4 (5-4-0 ) +1.95

Overall YTD (12-7-0) +22.65 units