Rod's NBA Tuesday

[rod_steel]

Two main reasons why I believe backing a team that has gone 9-44 this season may present some value tonight.

1) There are signs of improvement ever since they hosted the Lakers a couple of weeks ago. Heat have been competitive for most of the games, it is simply a case of their inability to close out a game that has prevented them from getting the W. This just comes down to the obvious being confidence and forgetting how to win and this couldn't have been highlighted more in their last start against the 76ers where they threw the game away in OT.

2) Kings on the road, especially as favourites this season has been nothing to ride home about. Below are the games that they have started as favourites:

23 Jan @ Clippers [ L 85-111]
27 Jan @ Sonics [W 103-101]
12 Feb @ Grizzlies [L 94-107]
22 Feb @ Bobcats [W 116-115 OT]

So in 4 road games this season as favourites they have gone 0-4 ATS, 2-2 SU. What is really concerning is the fact even the SU wins have not been convincing.

Heat +2 over Kings

good luck

 

[tazz]

gl rodsteel

 

[Pirate88]

Nice analysis Rod

 

[EHS49]

good point rod. they blew it against philly. they were up 5 in overtime with a minute and change left. ended up losing.

 

[redbearde]

that's been Miami's style. blowing it.

every game.

 

[Blue_Chip]

you make some good points, rod... gl to you tonight

 

[Marlo]

Rod

Lets cash

 

[redbearde]

the Heat have covered 5 games total since Christmas.

...........I can understand wanting to fade SacK as a fave, but dear God why with this Heat trash...?

 

[Szejtan]

GL Rod , I'm on it too

 

[Ally]

Good luck Rod.

 

[rod_steel]

Thanks guys gl to all tonight.

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

gl steel!!!

take it to the bank!!!

 

[SportsNut]

With ya here Rod. Basically what I said last night in the discussion thread. Miami's play has improved but because of the Wade / Marion hype they also have become overvalued at times. They are 1 and whatever yet have been favored twice in the past few games even on the road. They should have beat both Denver and Philly. While SHOULD doesnt pay it does show they are improving and get an opponent who is inconsistent. The 4 road opponents SAC struggled agaisnt as favs possibly ONLY Charlotte is better IMO...( and I believe Wallace went down that game):cheers:

 

[redbearde]

What does Miami have to do to be a team that sucks ass instead of a team that plays well and still manages to lose practically every game?

They've covered 5 times since Christmas. Memphis has done so 11 times. Minnesota has 14 times. Miami has lost ever OT game they've played this year.

They've lost countless close games. When is it no longer bad luck or coming up short and it becomes consistent tremendously bad play?

:shake:

 

[CapTwo]

Good luck roddy

 

[AtlHawks]

Rod,

You got a feel on that total for the Suns game???

On Mia with you.

Thanks.

 

[SportsNut]

What does Miami have to do to be a team that sucks ass instead of a team that plays well and still manages to lose practically every game?

They've covered 5 times since Christmas. Memphis has done so 11 times. Minnesota has 14 times. Miami has lost ever OT game they've played this year.

They've lost countless close games. When is it no longer bad luck or coming up short and it becomes consistent tremendously bad play?

:shake:

Injuries ...:shake:

Nothing to do with bad luck . They have had Marion for 3 home games I believe. By no means am I saying Mimai is a good team. There opponents where LAL the hottest team in the NBA and they gave them a run for there money , Denver who they lost to by 1 in OT and Philly who is also playing well lost in OT because thye allowed the y last 10 points to fall by 5...also now Haslem is bck who is probably the 3rd best player...
Most of teh bad teams have had injuries to deal with but Miami had almsot every player out for awhile including Wade and Shaq...

 

[redbearde]

it's not like the key injuries are going to come back. They don't have a big man anymore.

 

[SportsNut]

Neither does Sac ...Brad Miller , Mikki Moore?

 

[cogenman]

I think the weakness of the Heat is Jason Williams. The guy looks hopeless on defense. If I played him, i'd get a triple double on him.

 

[TheSportsThing]

I give up on the Heat. Hope your right for your sake. GL

 

[SportsNut]

I think the weakness of the Heat is Jason Williams. The guy looks hopeless on defense. If I played him, i'd get a triple double on him.

Nothing worse then an undisciplined PG. I absolutely agree..

:shake:

When the Heat appear to quit thats when I will write them off. Right now the effort is there but the execution is lacking at crucial moments..the Kings are playing medicore ball IMO which is why they are not a concern for me..

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I cant debate this play, but I cannot back the Heat until they gain some momentum.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

gl

 

[doublem9]

lets get this heat win rod!

 

[sharpie]

nice call rod, i couldn't pull the trigger myself. although i was able to capitalize on a minny +7 and minny ml +265 so i don't mind missing this one. looking forward to tomorrow. can't wait for that utah/det line.