Rod's NBA Opening Night Thoughts

rod_steel

Have an adequate day
I still haven't come up to speed with the going on's of the season apart from the big trades. I didn't really pay much attention to the preseason either apart from I know Hotlanta, Magic and Grizzlies preseason records were no fluke, think they will be the big improvers from their last season's records. In all 3 cases I guess that won't be such a huge task

I may not be able to post a lot early in the season as my focus lies elsewhere but will try and post thoughts on games where I can.

Blazers @ Spurs

If this was mid/end of the season I would be pounding the shit out of the under, we all know how nasty the Spurs transition D is and if there is a team in the league well quipped to clamp down on a young, athletic and lightning quick backcourt like the Blazers it is the Spurs. But given the pre game distraction and hoopla of raising the championship banner and presentation of the rings I think the Blazers have got the Spurs at a time where they may be a few steps off the pace.

I came across a great article a few weeks ago which basically provided a very clear blueprint of what McMillan intends to do with this team's offense. You can have a read of it yourself here

Jazz @ Warriors

Jazz with the points seems like a solid play. Jazz getting the points is baffling, we are talking a team who completely and utterly dominated the Warriors in the playoffs last season and their dominance on the glass will come to the fore again tonight IMO. The Warriors will also be without J-Rich and Jackson who both provided much of the offensive spark during the Warriors crazy run late last season.

Rockets @ Lakers

Moving on to the Lakeshow....them getting +5.5 at Staples on opening night is ridiculous.
Forget the drama of the pre season and all the talk about <st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Kobe</st1></st1:city> being traded. Opening night is traditionally one of the biggest stages in the regular season, Kobe will be primed. It comes and no suprise he was quiet during the games he played in preseason, as if he was building up to tonight and if you add the fact that the Zen Master publicly called him out for a lack of commitment over the past few days it has a recipe for a huge performance by Bryant and the home team. The Rox will be a legit force in the West this season (Wells IMO is the wildcard for them this season) but laying that many on the road this early is a bit of an overreaction. What should also make Lakers backers more confident is the fact that the Lakers have a very impressive opening game record over the past decade especially since the post Shaq era where similar to the build up to tonight's game, they have won games they have not expected to. Plays I would be looking at tonight are:

Over in San Antonio

Jazz with the points/ML
Lakers with the points/ML



good luck tonight and for the season
 
play the lakers rodney ;)

also, you still sporting that bulls avatar tom night?
 
I don't think I could find a single thing that you said to disagree with.

GL with anything that you play.
 
Tossing a few units across each to start the season

o189 Spurs v Blazers (3)

Jazz +3.5 over Warriors (2)

Lakers +5.5 over Rockets (2)
 
Thanks fellas, gl to you as well tonight

play the lakers rodney ;)

also, you still sporting that bulls avatar tom night?

Well I have to start the season with Stevie Nash just for good karma, I will accommodate your request in a couple of weeks when the Bulls start the season 10-0 'an_horse'
 
I like the plays Rod, great link also. I think that convinced me into playing the Spurs over ... it seems like they are going to be the type of team that gets O/Us consistently in the 200's ... I also like the fact that teams aren't normally as focused when they get their rings, it'll make the Spurs more likely to play at the Blazers' pace.
The only thing I worry about with your plays is the GSW crowd on opening night. They were a huge factor all playoffs for them, and if the Jazz aren't as focused as they were in that series, the Warriors could pull away any second since they're so explosive. But, I'm sure you considered that. BOL
 
I read something similar to that article on yahoo, re: Portland. Their totals are going to be a nightmare, because the inevitable mistakes will lead to scoring droughts where, given the pace they're playing, will involve opposing teams scoring big runs quickly on them leading to blowouts, which will then see (1) Portland lose heart = natural pace drops (hence scoring killer) and (2) with a decent lead, their opposition cruising late/milking the clock, which of course 1+2=Unders.

So while on the surface this news will make Portland seem like an *easy* Over team, because of the learning process in reality it makes them a nightmare.

I'll guess the start of their season takes 1 of 2 courses

1 - the Overs come easy initially, people get conditioned quickly (expectatioons from this news + what reality delivers) then the *learning (mistake) bug* kicks in and things get ugly, or
2- the Unders kick in early while they get used to their new style, and at the point people finally get frustrated with taking their overs and more often than not losing their ass and so abandon them as too random even given their new style, they'll rip off a large Over run.

BOL rod
 
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