You Can Bet on Another High-Scoring Thriller Between Mets and Rockies
The Rockies snapped a losing skid at home last night against the Mets. They are in good position to win game three tonight at 8:40 ET, in a battle that should see lots of runs.
New York Mets (31-39; 30-38-2 O/U) at Colorado Rockies (35-38; 34-33-6 O/U)
MLB Picks: 1H Rockies ML; FG Over 11.5
Reliever Seth Lugo (2-2, 2.49 ERA) has rejoined New York's starting rotation and will make his first ever appearance in Coors Field, where, because he throws a sinker and curveball with over 50% frequency, he matches up poorly.
The curveball, whose usage Lugo has increased the most from 2017 to 2018, is fundamentally important in his starts. He conceded five runs to Arizona, which slugged .444 against his curve in his last outing, while he shut out his prior two opponents who slugged less than .120 against it. The curveball is unreliable in Denver because of the reduced air density in the high altitude, which restricts environmental forces from acting on it as they would elsewhere. Lugo’s curve boasts one of the highest spin rates, but it will suffer in Denver with reduced spin. The curveball has the second-highest opposing slugging rate in Coors. The Rockies rank second in slugging against it at home since May and even second overall against it.
The sinker doesn’t bode well in Denver, either. Former Rockie Tyler Chatwood, whose sinker was his second-favorite pitch, suffered with it at home because it lost meaningful horizontal and vertical movement. Consequently, it was easier to hit and he had more trouble commanding it. Because of his sinker struggles, Chatwood boasted notoriously poor home/away splits. The Rockies rank ninth against the sinker at home from righties since May. Lugo’s third-favorite pitch is a four-seam fastball, which the Rockies do hit better on the road since it plays with increased velocity in Coors. Nonetheless, they rank 12th in slugging the fastball from righties at home since May.
Watch for Gerardo Parra, who is slugging .571 in his past seven days.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A home run is cool.<br>Multiple home runs are cooler.<br>Three in a row? That's ________. <a href="https://t.co/IymOl5u8Uc">pic.twitter.com/IymOl5u8Uc</a></p>— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) <a href=" ">20. Juni 2018</a></blockquote>
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Chad Bettis (5-1, 4.65 ERA) seems to be in terrible form for Colorado, surrendering eight homers in his last four starts, in each of which he allowed five runs.
His struggles came against division opponents, each of which rank in the top 10 in the past month against the slider and curveball combined from righties. So they matched up well against Bettis, slamming his breaking pitches. Against Texas, he yielded two hits and zero runs in the final 4 2/3 innings, showing that he is capable of a strong outing.
Bettis has been rock-solid against the NL east, allowing combined four runs in 25.2 innings against the Mets, who he shut out in May, Nationals, Marlins and Braves. Bettis, whose success hinges on the overall effectivity of his breaking pitches, matches up better with the Mets, who are one of the worst teams in the past month in slugging against the slider from righties and yet, based on the metric SLG-xSLG, the fourth-most overachieving against it. They are the sixth-most overachieving team in the past month against the curveball from righties and so are likewise due for statistical regression against it.
While he can build off his strong finish to his start against Texas, Bettis remains liable to suffer that one bad inning, in which the Mets can procure some runs and contribute to the „over."
The Rockies’ bullpen is atrocious, yielding by far a league-worst 12.46 ERA in the past seven days. The Mets’ lineup is still one of the most underachieving based on SLG-xSLG and are enjoying offensive progression. In their last two games against the Rockies, they scored combined 13 runs after the fifth inning. The Mets’ bullpen is also weak, allowing the seventh-highest ERA in the past seven days, fourth-highest in the past month.
The „over“ has hit in 16 of the last 19 Colorado games. Lets ride that trend with a successful first five innings for Colorado.
The Rockies snapped a losing skid at home last night against the Mets. They are in good position to win game three tonight at 8:40 ET, in a battle that should see lots of runs.
New York Mets (31-39; 30-38-2 O/U) at Colorado Rockies (35-38; 34-33-6 O/U)
MLB Picks: 1H Rockies ML; FG Over 11.5
Reliever Seth Lugo (2-2, 2.49 ERA) has rejoined New York's starting rotation and will make his first ever appearance in Coors Field, where, because he throws a sinker and curveball with over 50% frequency, he matches up poorly.
The curveball, whose usage Lugo has increased the most from 2017 to 2018, is fundamentally important in his starts. He conceded five runs to Arizona, which slugged .444 against his curve in his last outing, while he shut out his prior two opponents who slugged less than .120 against it. The curveball is unreliable in Denver because of the reduced air density in the high altitude, which restricts environmental forces from acting on it as they would elsewhere. Lugo’s curve boasts one of the highest spin rates, but it will suffer in Denver with reduced spin. The curveball has the second-highest opposing slugging rate in Coors. The Rockies rank second in slugging against it at home since May and even second overall against it.
The sinker doesn’t bode well in Denver, either. Former Rockie Tyler Chatwood, whose sinker was his second-favorite pitch, suffered with it at home because it lost meaningful horizontal and vertical movement. Consequently, it was easier to hit and he had more trouble commanding it. Because of his sinker struggles, Chatwood boasted notoriously poor home/away splits. The Rockies rank ninth against the sinker at home from righties since May. Lugo’s third-favorite pitch is a four-seam fastball, which the Rockies do hit better on the road since it plays with increased velocity in Coors. Nonetheless, they rank 12th in slugging the fastball from righties at home since May.
Watch for Gerardo Parra, who is slugging .571 in his past seven days.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A home run is cool.<br>Multiple home runs are cooler.<br>Three in a row? That's ________. <a href="https://t.co/IymOl5u8Uc">pic.twitter.com/IymOl5u8Uc</a></p>— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) <a href=" ">20. Juni 2018</a></blockquote>
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Chad Bettis (5-1, 4.65 ERA) seems to be in terrible form for Colorado, surrendering eight homers in his last four starts, in each of which he allowed five runs.
His struggles came against division opponents, each of which rank in the top 10 in the past month against the slider and curveball combined from righties. So they matched up well against Bettis, slamming his breaking pitches. Against Texas, he yielded two hits and zero runs in the final 4 2/3 innings, showing that he is capable of a strong outing.
Bettis has been rock-solid against the NL east, allowing combined four runs in 25.2 innings against the Mets, who he shut out in May, Nationals, Marlins and Braves. Bettis, whose success hinges on the overall effectivity of his breaking pitches, matches up better with the Mets, who are one of the worst teams in the past month in slugging against the slider from righties and yet, based on the metric SLG-xSLG, the fourth-most overachieving against it. They are the sixth-most overachieving team in the past month against the curveball from righties and so are likewise due for statistical regression against it.
While he can build off his strong finish to his start against Texas, Bettis remains liable to suffer that one bad inning, in which the Mets can procure some runs and contribute to the „over."
The Rockies’ bullpen is atrocious, yielding by far a league-worst 12.46 ERA in the past seven days. The Mets’ lineup is still one of the most underachieving based on SLG-xSLG and are enjoying offensive progression. In their last two games against the Rockies, they scored combined 13 runs after the fifth inning. The Mets’ bullpen is also weak, allowing the seventh-highest ERA in the past seven days, fourth-highest in the past month.
The „over“ has hit in 16 of the last 19 Colorado games. Lets ride that trend with a successful first five innings for Colorado.
okerface:
