Thor-Led Mets Bring Thunder For Series Finale Against Colorado
Colorado (33-30) at New York Mets (31-33)
When: 1:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Mets First-Five RL
New York's Noah Syndergaard, also known as Thor, (3-4, 4.83 ERA) is still trying to recover statistically from March and April, during which he yielded a 6.35 ERA. He has been reliable lately, yielding three runs or fewer while averaging seven innings in four of his last five and five of his last seven starts. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was 3.30 or lower in five of his last seven starts.
Velocity continues to be a key component of Syndergaard's arsenal. His fastball and sinker both rank in the 99th percentile, averaging over 97 mph. Both pitches compose together 59 percent of his arsenal, which means that opponents constantly deal with their combination of heat and glove-side movement. His change-up, slider, and curveball are all relatively hard.
Variety is another weapon for Thor. He throws all five of his pitches with at least 10 percent frequency and keeps most of their vertical and horizontal release points similar from game-to-game. This deception further impedes the batter's ability to react by masking which pitch is leaving his hand. Moreover, each of his pitches move very differently and their distinctness makes it hard for batters to adjust their swing punctually.
Colorado's overall batting numbers are misleading because its home venue is extremely hitter-friendly. Outside of Colorado, the Rockies rank 26th in slugging against the high-velocity (95-100 mph) fastball and sinker from righties combined. Syndergaard has a strong track record in pitching against Colorado at home, where he has allowed two earned runs in two starts against them and three in the other. Top Rockie batters Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are anyhow cold with four hits, all singles, in their last 23 at-bats combined (.173)
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After failing to impress during Spring Training, Colorado's Jeff Hoffman (1-2, 7.29 ERA) was sent down to Triple-A. He is in Colorado's rotation now only out of the necessity generated by Tyler Anderson's prolonged absence. Hoffman has yielded an ERA over 5.00 in each of his four starts.
Hoffman lacks the weapons that Thor possesses. His fastball averages four mph fewer. He struggles to make the release points of his pitches similar to each other. His arsenal contains less variety because his fastball alone composes 56 percent of his arsenal and he relies on it even more heavily when he falls behind in the count.
His dependence on the fastball is worrisome considering the success that opposing batters enjoy against it. They are hitting .340 and slugging .736 against it. Baltimore and Arizona each slugged over .780 against his fastball, although they, unlike the Mets, rank bottom-10 in slugging against the fastball from righties.
It's also evident that his fastball lacks the quality to survive poor location because in five of the nine most middle spots of the strike zone his fastball yields a slugging rate of at least 1.000. Conversely, in one of nine middle spots, Thor's fastball yields .800 slugging and .400 or lower slugging in the rest. Hoffman does not enjoy the same margin of error as Thor.
In their last five games, Met right-handed batters are slugging .482. This positive form is important because Hoffman, as a right-handed pitcher, suffers both in Triple-A and in the MLB tremendous reverse splits. Whereas lefties slug "only" .442 against him, righties slug .732. Watch out for Pete Alonso, who already has 21 homers on the season. Wilson Ramos is batting .421 with a double and two homers in his past seven days.
Colorado (33-30) at New York Mets (31-33)
When: 1:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Mets First-Five RL
New York's Noah Syndergaard, also known as Thor, (3-4, 4.83 ERA) is still trying to recover statistically from March and April, during which he yielded a 6.35 ERA. He has been reliable lately, yielding three runs or fewer while averaging seven innings in four of his last five and five of his last seven starts. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was 3.30 or lower in five of his last seven starts.
Velocity continues to be a key component of Syndergaard's arsenal. His fastball and sinker both rank in the 99th percentile, averaging over 97 mph. Both pitches compose together 59 percent of his arsenal, which means that opponents constantly deal with their combination of heat and glove-side movement. His change-up, slider, and curveball are all relatively hard.
Variety is another weapon for Thor. He throws all five of his pitches with at least 10 percent frequency and keeps most of their vertical and horizontal release points similar from game-to-game. This deception further impedes the batter's ability to react by masking which pitch is leaving his hand. Moreover, each of his pitches move very differently and their distinctness makes it hard for batters to adjust their swing punctually.
Colorado's overall batting numbers are misleading because its home venue is extremely hitter-friendly. Outside of Colorado, the Rockies rank 26th in slugging against the high-velocity (95-100 mph) fastball and sinker from righties combined. Syndergaard has a strong track record in pitching against Colorado at home, where he has allowed two earned runs in two starts against them and three in the other. Top Rockie batters Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are anyhow cold with four hits, all singles, in their last 23 at-bats combined (.173)
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After failing to impress during Spring Training, Colorado's Jeff Hoffman (1-2, 7.29 ERA) was sent down to Triple-A. He is in Colorado's rotation now only out of the necessity generated by Tyler Anderson's prolonged absence. Hoffman has yielded an ERA over 5.00 in each of his four starts.
Hoffman lacks the weapons that Thor possesses. His fastball averages four mph fewer. He struggles to make the release points of his pitches similar to each other. His arsenal contains less variety because his fastball alone composes 56 percent of his arsenal and he relies on it even more heavily when he falls behind in the count.
His dependence on the fastball is worrisome considering the success that opposing batters enjoy against it. They are hitting .340 and slugging .736 against it. Baltimore and Arizona each slugged over .780 against his fastball, although they, unlike the Mets, rank bottom-10 in slugging against the fastball from righties.
It's also evident that his fastball lacks the quality to survive poor location because in five of the nine most middle spots of the strike zone his fastball yields a slugging rate of at least 1.000. Conversely, in one of nine middle spots, Thor's fastball yields .800 slugging and .400 or lower slugging in the rest. Hoffman does not enjoy the same margin of error as Thor.
In their last five games, Met right-handed batters are slugging .482. This positive form is important because Hoffman, as a right-handed pitcher, suffers both in Triple-A and in the MLB tremendous reverse splits. Whereas lefties slug "only" .442 against him, righties slug .732. Watch out for Pete Alonso, who already has 21 homers on the season. Wilson Ramos is batting .421 with a double and two homers in his past seven days.
