Rockets Every Which Way Thursday (and Friday)

R

raems

Pretty much a regular
The market doesn’t know how to price them yet, no NBA team has ever tried such commitment to small ball with such capable players. With RoCo in for Capela, their pace will be off the charts and they’re going to get open 3’s on a disproportionate amount of possessions until scouts can catch up.

+7.5 to win 2 units
1H +4 to win 1 unit
1Q +3 to win .5 units
1Q ML +170 risking .33 units
1H ML +190 risking .33 units
ML +260 risking .5 units
1H over 58.5 to win .5 units
Game team total over 115 to win 1 unit

I rarely play anything more than 1 unit total, this is a rare spot especially when you factor in the Lakers are inflated off a 30 point win and will be playing multiple bigs a lot of the game who simply can’t cover 5 shooters on the floor for 48 minutes. I wouldn’t be very surprised if theRockets blow LA off the floor in a statement win.
 
No rim protection, how many rebounds can they get like this? I love the innovation if that’s what is (reportedly they just can’t afford Capela any more because of Westbrook’s contract). But at the same time they appeared to be maneuvering to pick up a Tristan Thompson. And it’s not like AD and Lebron are super-slow clunkers. And isn’t Westbrook questionable for playing today? I mean, you never know, who’d a thunk that the Nuggets would win last night? Anyway I was on the verge of jumping on the Lakers big time for tonight, but now I will reconsider and study a bit more...
 
pip2 said:
No rim protection, how many rebounds can they get like this? I love the innovation if that’s what is (reportedly they just can’t afford Capela any more because of Westbrook’s contract). But at the same time they appeared to be maneuvering to pick up a Tristan Thompson. And it’s not like AD and Lebron are super-slow clunkers. And isn’t Westbrook questionable for playing today? I mean, you never know, who’d a thunk that the Nuggets would win last night? Anyway I was on the verge of jumping on the Lakers big time for tonight, but now I will reconsider and study a bit more...
Click to expand...

If lack of size nets your opponent 8 more offensive rebounds and they score 1.2 per possession off then, thats ~10 more ppg they surrender.

meanwhile, if that lack of size simultaneously gets you 10 more good looks from 3 per game of which you make 4, that’s 12 ppg. I’m painting with a painfully broad brush here but that’s the kind of math Houston is doing here. Also, teams that force feed post mismatches on offense usually suck on such possessions.
 
On paper this is the most brutal matchup that Houston is gonna face running their small lineup.

A 48 minute death sentence so to speak...

...on paper.
 
emkee said:
On paper this is the most brutal matchup that Houston is gonna face running their small lineup.

A 48 minute death sentence so to speak...

...on paper.
Click to expand...

They decided to go this route specifically to try and beat the Lakers. Dictate the terms to them rather than the other way around.

I’m not telling you it’ll work in a series, but they didn’t have levers available to match their size with equal size and talent.
 
Yea they will have to hit threes at a 60% clip to have a chance to win ...they will get dominated on the boards and inside Rocks play basically zero D how will they stop Bron n AD and they have looked awful Lately i dont see how RoCo fixes all there issues they may get open looks but still gotta make em.... tough for me to see how they magically blowout prob the 2/3 best team in nba...
 
I’m more of a short-term guy here, thinking about tonight. Covington is good with 3 and D, but I never heard or saw any indication that he’s super-bright. Meaning, I don’t think he’s even going to know where to go and what to do when Houston is on offense. Even if this somehow works in the long run, I don’t think it will end well for the Rockets tonight...
 
pip2 said:
I’m more of a short-term guy here, thinking about tonight. Covington is good with 3 and D, but I never heard or saw any indication that he’s super-bright. Meaning, I don’t think he’s even going to know where to go and what to do when Houston is on offense. Even if this somehow works in the long run, I don’t think it will end well for the Rockets tonight...
Click to expand...

the rockets run the simplest offense in the NBA by multiple factors and he came up in the organization. His job tonight will be to run to the corners or the wing and shoot the ball when it touches his hand. It’s liberating.
 
Ro-Co has been there 5 minutes. Will take sometime to get acclimated.

Rockets now a true 'live by the 3, die by the 3' team in more sense than they ever were.

60+ long range attempts per night.

Holding a Rockets future so really do hope it works out...
 
raems said:
the rockets run the simplest offense in the NBA by multiple factors and he came up in the organization. His job tonight will be to run to the corners or the wing and shoot the ball when it touches his hand. It’s liberating.
Click to expand...
If it’s that simple then Danny Green or Avery Bradley or Lebron or somebody will just tag along with him into the corner. At that point, it will become a little more complicated to get Covington open to get the ball in his hands...
 
pip2 said:
If it’s that simple then Danny Green or Avery Bradley or Lebron or somebody will just tag along with him into the corner. At that point, it will become a little more complicated to get Covington open to get the ball in his hands...
Click to expand...

We disagree and that’s ok. I personally can’t even wrap my mind around how anybody could think there’s value in Lakers -7.5 tonight, in what world is that line short of what it should be.
 
pip2 said:
If it’s that simple then Danny Green or Avery Bradley or Lebron or somebody will just tag along with him into the corner. At that point, it will become a little more complicated to get Covington open to get the ball in his hands...
Click to expand...

Who do Javale and Dwight cover when their assignment is 25 feet away from the rim? THAT’s the bigger mathematical advantage than the offensive rebounds.
 
Btw in a series the lakers just respond with a Lebron AD front court and that’s probably that. But not in a reg season game before the rockets get scouted.
 
On 1/18 the Lakers played in Houston and beat the Rockets by 9. Capela had 8 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks and a steal. Russell Westbrook (questionable tonight) had 35 points. The -7.5 still makes sense to me because nobody can really know if Lebron wants to put any energy into the game or not. The problem being, if he doesn’t want to put much into the game, he will still tend to monopolize the ball, generating a slew of bricks and turnovers like he did in Boston, and thus somewhat hampering his teammates. So what I might do is see if I can get a quick feel for his attitude at the beginning of the game and make a live bet accordingly...
 
I do believe if the Rockets are gonna beat the Lakers though, it will be tonight with LeCramps angrily stewing over the trade deadline and his eyes on the buyout market.

Houston basically has nothing to lose at this point, just go out and bomb 3's and see where it gets them.
 
what Lebron says:
1581030937761.png
which doesn’t do me any good because I don’t see any sign of any commitment on his part to playing hard tonight...
 
5 quick assists in first 10 minutes. He'll play 7 more minutes this half hopefully get 2-3 more.
 
Good first half, looks like 1.67 to the good. And frankly should have won 1h ml and had a decent chance at 1q as well. Plus, great pace for TT full game and obviously one more assist the prop. Kudos.
 
To make up for the Lakers’ 6% higher OReb rate:

- 16% more of Houston’s shots were 3 pointers
- 19% of Houston’s shots were corner 3’s while 8% of La’s shots were corner 3’s
- Houston had a 5% higher free throw rate

Houston’s shot profile is not a prayer, it’s a calculated, informed decision by the smartest front office in the NBA. Whether or not it’ll win them anything this spring I don’t know, but discount them as a gimmick at your own risk.
 
Gotta hand it to you raems, great call! I don’t think Dantoni’s system was given much of a test, because players from both teams seemed kind of confused most of the time. But you definitely made awesome predictions on this game.
 
Lakers seemed to think that if they just closed their eyes and threw a pass high up in the air, then Lebron or AD would magically catch it and then dunk it...
 
Botanical said:
Waddup rockets back to back!!!!!?
Click to expand...

Yessir

For other action I’m on
- Hawks +9 to win 1
- Grizzlies +5.5 to win 1
- Wizards +3 to win 1
- Maryland +3.5 to win 1
- Utah -8.5 to win 1
- Raptors Pacers Under 218.5 to win 1

Capela helps a TON, Philly tired off a trip against a motivated Grizzlies team, Illinois overpriced, depleted Mavs overpriced, red alert fatigue game for Portland, and think the second of the home and home has Toronto and Indy more dialed in defensively.

Rockets ML -130 to win 2
Rockets 1H -1 to win 1
Rockets TT Over 117.5 to win 1
Rockets 1Q -0.5 to win .5
Rockets 1H TT Over 60.5 to win 1

Waiting on: Harden over props, Booker over props

With Baynes, Cam Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Kaminsky and Saric all out and the Suns playing their 4th game in 6 nights, with each starter playing 40+ minutes except for Rubio in Wednesday’s road back to back, I think they can get hit in the mouth here. Booker should get his just because of volume, Harden should get his because he never shifted past 2nd gear last night and is going without Russ tonight. Rockets should keep this going imo.
 
Last edited:
raems said:
The market doesn’t know how to price them yet, no NBA team has ever tried such commitment to small ball with such capable players. With RoCo in for Capela, their pace will be off the charts and they’re going to get open 3’s on a disproportionate amount of possessions until scouts can catch up.

+7.5 to win 2 units
1H +4 to win 1 unit
1Q +3 to win .5 units
1Q ML +170 risking .33 units
1H ML +190 risking .33 units
ML +260 risking .5 units
1H over 58.5 to win .5 units
Game team total over 115 to win 1 unit

I rarely play anything more than 1 unit total, this is a rare spot especially when you factor in the Lakers are inflated off a 30 point win and will be playing multiple bigs a lot of the game who simply can’t cover 5 shooters on the floor for 48 minutes. I wouldn’t be very surprised if theRockets blow LA off the floor in a statement win.
Click to expand...

Not being result oriented here, but this is an example of PHENOMENAL, NEXT-LEVEL HANDICAPPING. @raems For real, congrats on the profit tonight, but moreso thank you for sharing this with the forum. Much appreciated, sir. :cheers3:
 
raems said:
Yessir

For other action I’m on
- Hawks +9 to win 1
- Grizzlies +5.5 to win 1
- Wizards +3 to win 1
- Maryland +3.5 to win 1
- Utah -8.5 to win 1
- Raptors Pacers Under 218.5 to win 1

Capela helps a TON, Philly tired off a trip against a motivated Grizzlies team, Illinois overpriced, depleted Mavs overpriced, red alert fatigue game for Portland, and think the second of the home and home has Toronto and Indy more dialed in defensively.

Rockets ML -130 to win 2
Rockets 1H -1 to win 1
Rockets TT Over 117.5 to win 1
Rockets 1Q -0.5 to win .5
Rockets 1H TT Over 60.5 to win 1

Waiting on: Harden over props, Booker over props

With Baynes, Cam Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Kaminsky and Saric all out and the Suns playing their 4th game in 6 nights, with each starter playing 40+ minutes except for Rubio in Wednesday’s road back to back, I think they can get hit in the mouth here. Booker should get his just because of volume, Harden should get his because he never shifted past 2nd gear last night and is going without Russ tonight. Rockets should keep this going imo.
Click to expand...


LETS GO
 
Giving back some of last night so far with the bad Houston read, got greedy with the multiple plays on a road favorite on a back to back.

Still expect value on Houston over rest of the year, should’ve known they’d be dead legged tonight.
 
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