NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Houston Rockets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Don’t Worry About The Big Number
The amount of points that the sports betting sites are asking Buck backers to lay may seem like a lot.
But consider how often Houston loses by more than this same amount of points.
In their last game, the Rockets lost by 20 points to Philadelphia.
Two games ago, they lost by 25 to the Knicks.
Three games ago, Houston lost by 26 to the Warriors.
The Rockets' ongoing three-game ATS losing streak is partly a product of the NBA odds showing them too much respect.
Houston Offense vs. Milwaukee Defense
Offensively, the Rockets like to attack the basket.
This season, they average the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This average has actually increased in May as they maintain this focus on attacking the basket despite suffering a massive number of injuries.
Leading scorer on the team Christian Wood is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game. Next-leading scorer, John Wall, is obviously still injured.
Both of the team’s starting guards are ‘out.’ Several other players are listed as day-to-day.
All of this means nothing in terms of assessing Houston’s style of play. It only helps explain why the Rockets are regularly getting blown out.
Houston’s continued reliance on scoring inside is problematic against Milwaukee, which is known for its drop coverage and for the extra help that it likes to send inside in order to help secure the interior.
With this focus on protecting the basket, the Bucks allow the second-fewest field goals and the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
It is true that, when the Rockets are not attacking the basket, they are likely attempting three-pointers. They do attempt a lot of threes.
They would match up well with Milwaukee if they posed any threat from behind the arc because the flip side of Milwaukee’s devotion to defending the interior is its tendency to concede more open three-point attempts.
But the Rockets rank dead-last in three-point percentage. This is where the Rockets’ injuries, again, come into play. They simply lack sufficient quality to avoid being blown out by 20+ points.
Milwaukee Offense vs. Houston Defense
Like Houston, the Bucks love to attempt threes. They attempt the eight-most per game.
Their offensive style is characterized by the drive-and-kick. They like to drive inside in order to attract help defense before kicking the ball to a shooter who becomes open after his defender leaves him to help inside.
Houston’s perimeter defense is relatively vulnerable. The Rockets allow open three-pointers with the seventh-highest frequency and wide open ones at one of the higher rates.
Their relative vulnerability along the perimeter will allow Milwaukee to do what it wants to do offensively.
The Rockets’ vulnerability is especially exacerbated by the lack of a physical presence inside.
Center Christian Wood is more of a mobile and athletic type of player. While he is listed as day-to-day, his three backups are as well, if they haven’t already been ruled ‘out.'
So Houston also lacks healthy bodies in the interior. Giannis will thrive inside against Houston’s lack of interior physicality, causing the Rockets to have to send more help inside, which leaves the perimeter more open.
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte
Charlotte Offense vs. Orlando Defense
Offensively, the Hornets like to attack inside. They attempt the 10th-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Numerous Hornet players enjoy driving to the basket. One is Malik Monk, who has demonstrated strong form since returning from his previous ankle injury. Another key figure is point guard LaMelo Ball.
They will thrive against Orlando’s porous rim protection, which lacks viable shot-blockers, for which reason the Magic rank 23rd in blocks per game.
The absence of Wendell Carter Jr. hurts Orlando now. Carter Jr. was the team’s starting center partly for his reputation as a strong interior defender.
Without him, the Magic are sure to keep ranking at least fifth-worst at limiting opposing efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Injuries, though, probably aren't Orlando’s worse problem.
While the lack of overall ability is obvious, the bigger problem is likely the team’s lack of chemistry.
Defensively, Orlando is in a kind of flux where players are trying to get on the same page with each other.
This flux is evident in, for example, altered ball-screen tactics. There is more blitzing on screens and less drop coverage.
Orlando is still known rather for its drop coverage, however. It’s this persisting conservative tendency in ball-screen coverage along with the lack of chemistry that generates mishaps in the Magic perimeter defense.
So the Magic are the third-worst team at limiting opposing wide open three-point attempts. Charlotte, which ranks eighth in made three-pointers per game, can take advantage.
Orlando Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Offensively, the Magic rely heavily on the mid-range. They attempt the fifth-most field goals at 10-14 feet from the basket and the third-most at 15-19 feet from the basket.
I like Charlotte’s defense tonight because it is not one of those teams — like Utah, for example — that focuses on guarding the basket and the perimeter at the cost of the mid-range.
The Hornets, actually, excel more than nearly any other team at limiting field goal efficiency from 10-19 feet from the basket.
Forcing bad shots will feed Charlotte’s transition game. With maestros on the move like Ball, the Hornets own one of the most productive transition offenses.
They will thrive against a Magic defense that allows the second-most PPP (points per possession) in transition.
Parlay Verdict
Milwaukee will punish the Rockets for their proclivity to attack the basket while Houston will fail to take advantage of Milwaukee’s vulnerable perimeter defense.
Charlotte will limit Orlando with its focus on the mid-range. The Magic defense lacks above all the chemistry to stop Charlotte’s drive-heavy, perimeter-oriented half-court offense. The Hornets are also primed to thrive in transition.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks ATS & Hornets ATS (Odds TBA)
Houston Rockets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Don’t Worry About The Big Number
The amount of points that the sports betting sites are asking Buck backers to lay may seem like a lot.
But consider how often Houston loses by more than this same amount of points.
In their last game, the Rockets lost by 20 points to Philadelphia.
Two games ago, they lost by 25 to the Knicks.
Three games ago, Houston lost by 26 to the Warriors.
The Rockets' ongoing three-game ATS losing streak is partly a product of the NBA odds showing them too much respect.
Houston Offense vs. Milwaukee Defense
Offensively, the Rockets like to attack the basket.
This season, they average the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This average has actually increased in May as they maintain this focus on attacking the basket despite suffering a massive number of injuries.
Leading scorer on the team Christian Wood is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game. Next-leading scorer, John Wall, is obviously still injured.
Both of the team’s starting guards are ‘out.’ Several other players are listed as day-to-day.
All of this means nothing in terms of assessing Houston’s style of play. It only helps explain why the Rockets are regularly getting blown out.
Houston’s continued reliance on scoring inside is problematic against Milwaukee, which is known for its drop coverage and for the extra help that it likes to send inside in order to help secure the interior.
With this focus on protecting the basket, the Bucks allow the second-fewest field goals and the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
It is true that, when the Rockets are not attacking the basket, they are likely attempting three-pointers. They do attempt a lot of threes.
They would match up well with Milwaukee if they posed any threat from behind the arc because the flip side of Milwaukee’s devotion to defending the interior is its tendency to concede more open three-point attempts.
But the Rockets rank dead-last in three-point percentage. This is where the Rockets’ injuries, again, come into play. They simply lack sufficient quality to avoid being blown out by 20+ points.
Milwaukee Offense vs. Houston Defense
Like Houston, the Bucks love to attempt threes. They attempt the eight-most per game.
Their offensive style is characterized by the drive-and-kick. They like to drive inside in order to attract help defense before kicking the ball to a shooter who becomes open after his defender leaves him to help inside.
Houston’s perimeter defense is relatively vulnerable. The Rockets allow open three-pointers with the seventh-highest frequency and wide open ones at one of the higher rates.
Their relative vulnerability along the perimeter will allow Milwaukee to do what it wants to do offensively.
The Rockets’ vulnerability is especially exacerbated by the lack of a physical presence inside.
Center Christian Wood is more of a mobile and athletic type of player. While he is listed as day-to-day, his three backups are as well, if they haven’t already been ruled ‘out.'
So Houston also lacks healthy bodies in the interior. Giannis will thrive inside against Houston’s lack of interior physicality, causing the Rockets to have to send more help inside, which leaves the perimeter more open.
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte
Charlotte Offense vs. Orlando Defense
Offensively, the Hornets like to attack inside. They attempt the 10th-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Numerous Hornet players enjoy driving to the basket. One is Malik Monk, who has demonstrated strong form since returning from his previous ankle injury. Another key figure is point guard LaMelo Ball.
They will thrive against Orlando’s porous rim protection, which lacks viable shot-blockers, for which reason the Magic rank 23rd in blocks per game.
The absence of Wendell Carter Jr. hurts Orlando now. Carter Jr. was the team’s starting center partly for his reputation as a strong interior defender.
Without him, the Magic are sure to keep ranking at least fifth-worst at limiting opposing efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Injuries, though, probably aren't Orlando’s worse problem.
While the lack of overall ability is obvious, the bigger problem is likely the team’s lack of chemistry.
Defensively, Orlando is in a kind of flux where players are trying to get on the same page with each other.
This flux is evident in, for example, altered ball-screen tactics. There is more blitzing on screens and less drop coverage.
Orlando is still known rather for its drop coverage, however. It’s this persisting conservative tendency in ball-screen coverage along with the lack of chemistry that generates mishaps in the Magic perimeter defense.
So the Magic are the third-worst team at limiting opposing wide open three-point attempts. Charlotte, which ranks eighth in made three-pointers per game, can take advantage.
Orlando Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Offensively, the Magic rely heavily on the mid-range. They attempt the fifth-most field goals at 10-14 feet from the basket and the third-most at 15-19 feet from the basket.
I like Charlotte’s defense tonight because it is not one of those teams — like Utah, for example — that focuses on guarding the basket and the perimeter at the cost of the mid-range.
The Hornets, actually, excel more than nearly any other team at limiting field goal efficiency from 10-19 feet from the basket.
Forcing bad shots will feed Charlotte’s transition game. With maestros on the move like Ball, the Hornets own one of the most productive transition offenses.
They will thrive against a Magic defense that allows the second-most PPP (points per possession) in transition.
Parlay Verdict
Milwaukee will punish the Rockets for their proclivity to attack the basket while Houston will fail to take advantage of Milwaukee’s vulnerable perimeter defense.
Charlotte will limit Orlando with its focus on the mid-range. The Magic defense lacks above all the chemistry to stop Charlotte’s drive-heavy, perimeter-oriented half-court offense. The Hornets are also primed to thrive in transition.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks ATS & Hornets ATS (Odds TBA)
