Rochclone Week Three NCAAF

R

rochclone

Pretty much a regular
Disappointing Week Two. Got involved in Texas 2H or would have turned a very small profit.

Week One 42-31-2 +17.90 Units
Week Two 40-35-1 -3.25 Units

Overall: 82-66-3 (55.29%) +14.65 Units (+$366.20)



0.2 Unit Plays (Season Record 17-20-1 (46.05%)

0.4 Unit Plays (Season Record 14-6-0) (70.00%)

0.6 Unit Plays (Season Record 9-6-1) (59.38%)

0.8 Unit Plays (Season Record 4-5-0) (44.44%)

1.0 Unit Plays (Season Record 5-2-0) (71.42%)

1.2 Unit Plays (Season Record 2-1-0) (66.67%)

1.4 Unit Plays (Season Record 2-3-0) (40.00%)

1.6 Unit Plays (Season Record 4-2-0) (66.67%)

1.8 Unit Plays (Season Record 3-2-0) (60.00%)

2.0 Unit Plays (Season Record 1-3-0) (25.00%)

2.2 Unit Plays (Season Record 1-3-0) (25.00%)

2.4 Unit Plays (Season Record 3-3-0) (50.00%)

2.6 Unit Plays (Season Record 2-1-1) (62.50%)

2.8 Unit Plays (Season Record 2-2-0) (50.00%)

3.0 Unit Plays (Season Record 13-7-0) (65.00%)
 
A few that jump off the page to me early:

Texas Tech +3.5 (Wrong team favored with the Pachall injury)
Maryland -7.0 (Maryland appears ready to take the next step offensively and difficult to see UCONN putting up more than 20 points)
W. Kentucky -11.0 (Superior team in the Sun Belt)
UCLA +4.5
Oregon -25.5 (UT has trouble stopping the Western Kentucky running game)
Texas A&M +8.0 (I hate backing Manziel in this spot but more than a TD on the road seems a bit steep)
Ball State -3.0
Kansas +5.5 (A little too much Rice love for my liking. If I see 7 I will pound the Jayhawks. First game for Heaps and Co. But that running game is solid)
Central Florida +5.5 (Major step up in competition for Penn State)
Central Michigan +7.0
Arizona -25.0 (Look at Oklahoma State score for misleading final.) Rich Rod doesn't let up on the pedal.
Arizona State -5.5 (Mark my words this will be an ass-kicking of gigantic proportions) Night game in the desert. Expecting big things from the Sun Devils this year and Bucky hasn't played a team with a pulse to prepare themselves for the offense they will see on Sat. night.
 
Arizona State -5.5 (Mark my words this will be an ass-kicking of gigantic proportions) Night game in the desert. Expecting big things from the Sun Devils this year and Bucky hasn't played a team with a pulse to prepare themselves for the offense they will see on Sat. night.
Click to expand...

ArizSt has my attention also

GL this wk roch
 
Here we go:

0.2 Plays
Army +29.0
Nevada +34.5
Auburn -6.0
Southern Miss +22.0
Oklahoma -24.0
Ohio State -15.5
Western Michigan +30.5
Wyoming -26.0
Wagner +28.5
Cincinnati -29.0


0.4 Unit Plays
Boise State -24.0--Lost
E. Michigan +27.5
West Virginia -40.5
Boston College +14.0
Fordham +21.0

0.6 Unit Plays
Ohio +8.5
Toledo -6.5
Southern Utah +22.0

0.8 Unit Plays
Louisville -14.0
New Mexico +21.5
Ball State -3.5
Kansas State -39.0
Florida Atlantic +13.0
Navy -16.5
 
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1.0 Unit Plays
Western Kentucky -9.5
Notre Dame -20.5
Oregon State +3.5
Buffalo -13.0


1.2 Unit Plays
Tulane +7.0-Won
Youngstown State +24.0 (0.6 Units) +23.0 (0.6 Units)
Washington -9.5
Cal-Poly +9.5

1.4 Unit Plays
Kent State +37.0
UTEP -5.0
UL Lafayette -25.0

1.6 Unit Plays
Northern Illinois -28.5
Kansas +7.0
Utah State -37.5

1.8 Unit Plays
Vanderbilt +13.5
Central Michigan +7.0
 
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2.0 Unit Plays
Arizona -25.5
Iowa State +2.5 (1.4 Units) +2.0 (0.6 Units)

2.2 Unit Plays
UL Monroe +3.0
Oklahoma State -47.0

2.4 Unit Plays
Arkansas State -7.5--Loss
Bethune-Cookman -3.0

2.6 Unit Plays
Oregon -28.0
Memphis +7.5

2.8 Unit Plays
Michigan -37.0
Colorado +9.5
Texas -2.5

3.0 Unit Plays
Texas Tech +3.0--WON
Bowling Green +2.5
East Carolina +8.0
Maryland -6.5
UCLA +4.5
Georgia Tech -8.5
Central Florida +5.5
Arizona State -5.5
Minnesota -24.0
Alabama -7.5 (2.0 units) -8.5 (1.0)
 
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FCS vs. FBS games that will be high on my radar when the lines come out at my book.

Minnesota -24.0
Bethune Cookman -3.0
Oklahoma State -45.0
Utah State -36.0
Toledo -6.0
Buffalo -13.0
 
Streakin, Bull and Hunt thanks for the support.

Thoughts on Texas Tech vs. TCU--First and foremost Lubbock is a tough place to play and would expect a capacity crowd tonight as this is the first real test for Kingsbury. Texas Tech's defense is not nearly as bad as the ppg last year indicated. Tech returned 8 starters last year from a defense that only yielded 367 ypg which is fairly solid in the Big 12. This Tech front seven is fairly solid. So far against the run this year they have yielded 171 yds on 63 carries through two games which is less than 3 yds per carry. The pass defense has certainly been suspect put they were able to get pressure when they needed to against SMU recording 5 sacks.

Offensively Mayfield has been impressive. And I'm not talking from strictly a stats perspective. The kid has a great arm and I still believe that Kenny Williams will have a solid year at the RB position. Not sure if TCU can contain Eric Ward.

TCU struggled to establish the run against LSU (understandble) and against SE Louisiana (not so understandable). 38 Carries for 169 yards against SE Louisiana isn't all that impressive. Now this team has to go on the road against an explosive offense in a difficult environment. The strength of TCU needs to be the running game to open up play action pass with Boykin. Not sure that the running game is far enough along. Boykin is a tremendous athlete but I need to see more regarding his decision-making skills. Especially in a difficult road start.

Expect a couple of key turnovers from TCU to push Texas Tech over the top. Not sure if Tech is better than TCU on a neutral but in this spot tonight I can pass up on the 3 points and expect a 7 point win from the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech 37 TCU 30
 
Parlays:

4 team
Texas Tech ML +125
Tulane ML +240
Arkansas State -7.0
Boise State -23.0

0.2 Unit to win 5.37 Units

5 team
Louisville -14.0
Maryland -6.5
Georgia Tech -8.5
Central Florida +5.5
Arizona -25.0

0.2 Units to win 4.99 Units

6 team parlay
Bowling Green ML +125
East Carolina +8.0
Colorado +8.0
UCLA ML +170
Memphis +7.5
Arizona State -5.0

0.2 Units to win 15.60 Units

15 team parlay
East Carolina +10.0
UL Monroe ML +135
Colorado +8.0
UCLA ML +170
Georgia Tech -8.5
Iowa State ML +115
Alabama -7.0
Central Florida ML +180
Memphis +10.0
Kansas +7.0
Arizona -21.0
Central Michigan +10.0
Arizona State -3.0
Cal-Poly +11.0
Bethune-Cookman -1.0


0.2 Units to win 3,508.14 Units
 
Good start last night going 2-1-0 with the 4 team parlay still pending with Boise State tonight.

A few upgrades on the card:

Iowa State +2.0 (0.6 Units) to make it now a 2.0 Unit play

Texas -2.5 (2.4 Units) to make it now a 2.8 Unit play

Youngstown +23.0 (0.6 Units) to make it now a 1.2 Unit play


Gl to all.
 
roch- Bethune Cookman is in a conference that I don't follow so I can't give you a knowledge based response.
Sagarin has ratings of 54.64 for FIU and 52.22 for BC

But two (free) rating sites I use are Dunkel and Keepers. Dunkel rates BC 6 pts better than FIU and Keepers rate then 5 1/2 pts better than FIU. So it's kind of a tight fit there based on those numbers, not that they are the be all end all to decision making.
GL whatever you decide.
bull
 
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