Alright fellas here are my predictions for the Thursday games.
$25 equals a unit for me.
All plays are one unit, two units, or three units.
Like others here I like to see my percentage of how I do on all games so I will always select a winner. If I don't have a unit designation behind it then it is a $5 play.
Thursday night.
Miami (Ohio) at Ball State--Ball State favored by six in this one and coming off a 5-7 year. Ball State returns seven on offense where they will be led by Nate Davis the potential MAC player of the year. They return four offensive lineman from last year but there preference is to throw the ball as they only averaged 92 yds a game on the ground last year. On defense they were deceptively good last year. The Defense only gave 26 pts a game last year but over 430 yds a game, including 258 through the air. For instance last year they won at Miami (Ohio) 20-17 but were outgained 226 yds to 359.
Miami (Ohio) is coming off a disasterous 2-10 season, their first losing season in 13 years. This is a very solid program which only returned seven total starters last year. This year they are more experienced and return 14 starters. (8 off 6 def) The offensive line returns four starters from a year ago and the fifth starter is a transfer from Maryland who was highly regarded out of high school. Miami (Ohio) perfers to pass and Mike Kokal returns from a season where he had a 14-8 TD-INT ratio. The Miami defense gave up 331 yds per game last year but unlike Ball State surrendered 25.3 points per game. The Defense was stingy against the pass only giving up 160 yds per game.
Ultimately I think Miami is a better squad and the numbers seem to support that. Miami likes to pass and Ball State has issues in their secondary. While Ball State perfers to pass and that seems to be a strength of the Red Hawks. I like Miami to win a 31-24 ball game.
Miami +6.0--two units.
Buffalo at Rutgers--Rutgers favored by 32 points in this contest. Buffalo was 2-10 last year and returns 18 starters from that team. The Buffalo offense only generated 18 points a game last year and the defense gave up nearly 36 points a game but only 391 yards. Most importantly Buffalo played three very solid BCS schools last year on the road. A 38-7 loss at Auburn, a 41-0 loss at Boston College and a 35-3 loss at Wisconsin. I doubt Buffalo will be intimidated at Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights finished the year 11-2 and were the feel good story of the year. They return 13 starters from a year ago. The Knights return 3 offensive lineman starters from last year but their leading returning receiver only caught 29 balls. The Scarlet Knight attack averaged 30 points a game last year. The defense returns 6 players but only three in the front seven. The defense allowed 250 yds a game last year and only a hundred on the ground. Rutgers should be good but maybe a slight step down from last year.
I think Rutgers will score 35 points and try to run the ball saving some of their plays for Navy the following week. The Bulls will get 10 points along the way. This is a no play for me but I see Rutgers 35 Buffalo 10 would lean towards the Bulls +32.0
Louisiana State at Mississippi State--The Tigers are a 18 point road favorite. The Tigers are loaded and return 14 starters from a year ago. Gone are Russell, Bowe and Craig Davis but Les Miles simply reloads. The offensive line returns 3 starters and Early Doucet and Keiland Williams should cause havoc for the Bulldog defense. The question is whether Matt Flynn can lead this team. The defense is one of the best in the country even with the loss of Landry in the secondary. They return six of the front seven from a year ago. The Bulldogs might not have enough time to test the secondary. Last year in Baton Rouge the Tigers beat the Bulldogs 48-17.
4th year for Sylvester Croom and he needs to show some progress. The Bulldogs were 3-9 a year ago and return 14 starters; nine on offense. The offense struggled last year gaining 18.4 points even though they returned 8 starters. The defense gave up 26 points a game. The offensive line should be improved for the Bulldogs with four starters returning but Micheal Henig is still the QB and he is not SEC caliber. 44% COMPLETION percentage last year and a 7-9 TD to INT ratio. The Defense which allowed only 321 yds last year must replace 3 of the 4 defensive lineman this year and both conerbacks. This is a team that might be some value later in the year but the defense will not be able to bail the offense out like last year.
LSU is just too good. I expect the Bulldogs to hang tough in the first half but fade in the second simply due to LSU althleticism.
Tigers 35 Bulldogs 7--Two Units on LSU -18.0
Kent State at Iowa State--The Cyclones are a 3.5 point favorite at home. Kent State is coming off a 6-6 season a year ago and return 16 starters including Julian Edelman and Eugene Jarvis. The Offense averaged just 18 points a game last year and struggled against Minnesota and Virginia Tech as they were shut out in both games. The offensive line returns four and Kent State will probably try to run the ball as Edelman was prone to turnovers last year with a 10-11 TD to INT ratio. The Defense was among the MAC best last year giving up 20 points a game and only 298 yds per game. The return most of their front seven but lost a NFL player in Usama Young a cornerback and their leading tackler, Andre Kirkland from a year ago. The secondary even with Jack Williams 5"9 could struggle. The special teams were horrible.
Iowa State is coming off a 2-10 disaster and with it came a coaching change. The first game of the Gene Chizik era starts Thurs. The Cyclones return just 11 starters from last year's team but that might be a good thing. The offense averaged only 19 points a game last year and the defense gave up 31 points. The offense will rely on 4 new starters on the O-line but return Brett Meyer and Todd Blythe both four year starters. The signing of JC star J.J. Bass was a major coup for the Clones and he will start at RB. The defense returns seven players including Alvin Bowen the nation's leading tackler from last year at LB. The Cyclones added needed speed at MLB with Micheal Bibbs a JUCO player who originally signed with the SEC and Allan Bell 4.39 at CB. The secondary was horrible last year and has no where to go but up.
ISU fans are excited (sold most season tickets ever for this year) and the new coaching regime has been well recieved. ISU was two FG's misses in the last three years from playing in two Big 12 championship games. Much like Miami (Ohio) the talent is still there and Kent State has not shown it can perform against BCS caliber opponents.
ISU 31 Kent State 17--Two Units ISU -3.5
UNLV at Utah State--The Rebels are favored by seven on the road. UNLV is coming off a 2-10 season last year but returns 14 starters (8 offense and 6 defense) and once again gets an influx of JC/transfer talent. The top three receivers return for the Rebels including super soph. Ryan Wolfe. Rocky Hinds makes it go and his health is paramount if the Rebels are to turn things around. The offense averaged only 20 points a game last year and the defense gave up nearly 32 points a game. However the Rebels return five of their front seven and they should be much stronger against the run. As you look at the UNLV roster you will see plenty of BCS transfers in the starting line up. The talent is certainly there. However they have not won a road game in the last 15 starts.
Utah State went 1-11 last year and returns 19 starters including the entire defense. The offense was putrid last year averaging 11 points a game and managing only 250 yds. Leon Jackson leads the offense but only completed 49 % of his passes last year. The defense gave up 38 points a game last year.
Utah State is a whole new bad. They were only able to keep three games within 20 points last year. UNLV is horrible on the road but still should win this game by three touchdowns if the show up. Unfortunately we never know if UNLV will show up.
UNLV 41 Utah State 17---no play for me but lean towards UNLV -7.0
Utah at Oregon State--Perhaps the best matchup on Thurs. with the Beavers a 6.5 pt favorite. Utah returns 16 starters including 10 on offense. Four offensive lineman return and they get Brian Johnson back off an injury. The offense was down last year but still put up 28 points a game. The defensive line and secondary without Weddle are question marks but the the linebacking core should be one of the best in the MWC.
Utah is 9-3 ATS as a road dog over the last seven years.
Oregon State is coming off a successful 10-4 campaign and was set to return 16 starters but will take the field on Thurs. without star wideout Sammie Stroughter one of the best in the PAC-10. The O-line does return 4 starters but Oregon State loved to pass last year compared to running. 118 yds on the ground compared to 242 through the air. With Yvenson Benard at RB they are capable of running but will need Untested QB Sean Canfield to show passing capabilities after losing Matt Moore. On defense they return 8 players including an outstanding LB core. The secondary which gave up 224 yds through the air should be improved.
Both teams will score in this game and ultimately Oregon State will have the ball last. A field goal by Alexis Serna as time expires gives the Beavers a hard fought victory.
Oregon State 34 Utah 31 --no play but a lean towards Utah +6.5
Tulsa at U-L Monroe--Tulsa opened as a 8 point favorite but the line now sits at 3 points. Tulsa returns only 10 starters from last year's 8-5 team. That number is now one less due to Courtney Tennial, starting RB, injury. The offensive line has four new starters and no receiver has significant starting experience. They do return Paul Smith a tremendous QB who had a 67% completion percentage last year. The offense that averaged 28 points will be down a few notches this year as Todd Graham brings a new offensive system. The Defense returns six starters but lost 4 of their five top tacklers from last year. The D-line should be defense while the secondary could be down from last year.
ULM opens at home and on ESPN 2. The return 17 starters including the entire offense from a 4-8 team a year ago. The offense which averaged 22 points last year is loaded with all-conference players including talented TE Kenneth Zacharies and tailback Calvin Dawson (1200 yds last year). Lancaster will be the key as he needs to improve his TD/INT ratio (7-14 last year). The defense gave up 22 points a game last year and returns only six players (most of which is up front) while breaking in three new starters in the secondary.
The key to this game will be U-L Monroe's ability to run the ball. I think with a veteran O-Line and Dawson at TB they will have success against Tulsa. If Tennial was healthy I think Tulsa could keep pace but with so many new faces on the offensive side of the football this is just not a good spot for Paul Smith. I think the atmoshphere and returning starters for ULM combined with Tulsa's inexperience spells ambush in Monroe.
ULM 31 Tulsa 27--ULM +3.0 for one unit.
Good luck to all I will have Friday's write-ups tomorrow.
