Rochclone Week One NCAAF

[rochclone]

2012 NCAAF

Futures: 3-1-0 (+5.47 Units) (+$136.75)
Regular Season: 393-331-11 (+79.12 Units) (+$1,978.04)
Bowl Season: 34-37-0 (-4.86 Units) (-$121.50)

Overall: 430-369-11 (+79.73 Units) (+$1,993.29)


Same as last year as every college football game will have action on one side or another. Each game gets slotted from 0.2 Units to 3.0 Units in increments of .2 Units. The goal is to hit above 50% in every slot when the year is finished. Last year I was above 50% in 11 of the 15 slots and was 50-32-2 in my top unit plays. I think last year was a slight aberration and anything over 40 units would be considered a good year for me. I know that many of you feel that playing every game is absurd. That may be true to some degree but this system has been profitable for the last three years and it works best for me given my overall knowledge of all conferences compared to have a few niche conferences.

As always feel free to provide feedback with my plays both positive and negative. Best of luck to everyone this year. For those first timers CTG is the best forumn in the business.

 

[Schrute]

Good to see ya roch

All the best this year

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Best of luck Roch, welcome home

 

[xyzky]

:shake:

 

[rochclone]

2013 Futures:

Arkansas State Over 7.5 Wins 1.00 Units to win 1.35 Units
California Under 4.5 Wins 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 Units
Florida Under 8.5 Wins 1.00 units to win 1.30 Units
Florida Atlantic Under 3.5 Wins 1.30 Units to win 1.00 Units
Hawaii Under 3.5 Wins 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units
Iowa Under 5.5 Wins 1.00 Units to win 1.05 Units
Tulane Over 5.5 Wins 1.00 Units to win 1.20 Units
West Virginia Under 5.5 Wins 1.00 Units to win 1.75 Units
Central Florida Over 8.5 Wins 1.00 Units to win 2.10 Units
UNLV Under 4.5 Wins 3.00 Units to win 2.00 Units
Alabama Over 10.5 Wins 4.64 Units to win 2.00 Units
Army Over 4.5 Wins 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Pittsburgh Under 5.5 Wins 3.00 Units to win 3.90 Units
Iowa State Over 4.5 Wins 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units
Northern Illinois Over 9.5 Wins 5.40 Units to win 4.00 Units
Buffalo Over 5.5 Wins 2.10 units to win 2.00 units
UCONN Under 5.5 Wins. 6.00 Units to win 6.90 units


Good luck to all.

 

[rochclone]

Thursday's Games:

Towson +17.0 (0.2 Units)
Western Carolina +32.0 (0.2 Units)
Jackson State +25.0 (0.2 Units)
San Jose State -19.0 (0.4 Units)
USC -22.5 (0.4 Units)
Utah St. +2.5 (0.6 Units)
Indiana State +24.5 (0.6 Units)
Akron +22.0 (0.8 Units)
Illinois State +12.0 (0.8 Units)
Vanderbilt +3.5 (1.0 Unit)
Tulsa +3.5 (1.2 Units)
Rutgers +10.0 (1.8 Units)
Southern Utah +16.5 (1.8 Units)
Wake Forest -38.0 (2.0 Units)
North Carolina +12.5 (2.2 Units)
Kent State -16.0 (2.4 Units)
Minnesota -14.0 (2.8 Units)


Expecting the following for TU Plays

Oklahoma State -12.5
Texas Tech -5.5
Buffalo +35.0
Northern Illinois +3.0
BYU -1.0--Now locked in at 3.0 Units
Florida State -10.5

 

[rochclone]

Added extra games for Thursday night.

Does anyone have any insight into Southern Utah vs. South Alabama (Thought this would be somewhere between -3 and -7) I would typically rate this a 3 star bet but I'm afraid I'm missing a key injury. I realize that Southern Utah is picked in the middle tier of the Big West but not sure that S. Alabama should be laying two plus TD's against anyone.

If Wake Forest takes this game seriously against Presbyterian they should cover the 38 points by halftime.

 

[rochclone]

Here is the final list:


0.2 Unit Plays:

Towson +17.0--WIN
Western Carolina +32.0--WIN
Jackson State +25.0--LOSS
Michigan State -28.0
Georgia State +6.5
Houston -40.0
Northern Arizona +35.0
North Texas -15.0
Elon +46.0
West Virginia -33.5
Missouri -38.0
East Carolina -14.5
Austin Peay +50.0
San Diego State -14.5


0.4 Unit Plays
USC -22.5--LOSS
San Jose State -19.0--WIN
NC State -14.0
Marshall -19.5
TCU +4.5
Colgate +27.0
Duke -33.0
Oregon -59.0
McNeese State +20.5
Kansas State -13.5


0.6 Unit Plays
Utah State +2.5--LOSS
Indiana State +24.5--LOSS
UAB +3.5
Southern Miss -8.5
Nebraska -29.0
Washington -3.5
Eastern Washington +27.0
Howard +17.5
Texas -43.5 (0.4 Units) -42.0 (0.2 Units)


0.8 Unit Plays
Akron +22.0--LOSS
Illinois State +12.0--Loss
Central Michigan +31.0
UCLA -21.0
Illinois -17.5
Rice +27.0

1.0 Unit Plays
Vanderbilt +3.5--LOSS
Cincinnati -10.5
Oklahoma -21.5 (0.8 Units) -21.0 (0.2 Units)
Clemson +1.5

 

[rochclone]

1.2 Unit Plays
Tulsa +3.5--LOSS
Arkansas State -26.0

1.4 Unit Plays
Temple +29.5
New Mexico -3.5


1.6 Unit Plays
Maryland -22.0
UL Lafayette +10.0
Syracuse +8.5

1.8 Unit Plays
Southern Utah +16.5--WIN
Toledo +23.5
Baylor -30.5

 

[rochclone]

2.0 Unit Plays
Wake Forest -38.0--LOSS
Ohio +21.0


2.2 Unit Plays
North Carolina +12.5--Loss
Army -32.0


2.4 Unit Plays
Kent State -16.0--Loss
Buffalo +35.0
Iowa State -9.5
Rutgers plus 10.0 (1.8 units) 10.5 (0.6 units)--WON



2.6 Unit Plays
Villanova +16.5
UMASS +45.0 (2.4 Units) +44.5 (0.2 Units)

2.8 Unit Plays
Minnesota -14.0--WON
Miami (Fla) -31.5
Colorado State -3.0

 

[rochclone]

3.0 Unit Plays
BYU -1.0
Northern Illinois +3.0
Alabama -19.5
Oklahoma State -12.5
Texas Tech -5.5
Western Kentucky +4.5 (2.6 Units) +4.0 (0.4 Units)
Washington State +16.0
Northwestern -5.5
Florida State -10.5

 

[rochclone]

Adding:

Rutgers plus 10.5 (0.6 units) overall bet moves to 2.4 units.

 

[TroyStacks]

GH on Rutgers...Fresno here but GL on USC I have 1H bet on them looking for them to blow the hatches off these guys early!

 

[bull]

I know that many of you feel that playing every game is absurd.

not me, roch.
glad to see that you went on Southern Utah.
GL this year. I check up on you every week to see what you are playing.
if it works or you, keep it going:shake:

 

[rochclone]

For those that have Heritage. Uconn Under 5.5 wins is still available at plus 115

 

[CASH]

i see you have texas tech a -5.5, i see it now at 4,, any reason for the drop??

 

[rochclone]

Not a great night on Thursday. Finished the first day at 6-11-0 and down just shy of 6 units. However, I don't feel terrible about the overall capping. Alot of "unlucky" finishes last night. Hawaii 60 yd TD to cover with 30 seconds to go, Ole Miss 75 yd TD run with 65 seconds to go, Utah FG with 19 seconds to go and UNC unable to push it in with first and goal from the 2 with a minute left in the game. That stuff with typically even out over the year but realistically this could have been a 9-8 or 8-9 day.

Explanation of Top Plays:

Texas Tech -5.5--Lost a 1.5 points in value which a concern but still think this is the right side. Tech returns 8 starters on defense from last year including their entire front seven. 31.8 ppg last year from the defense isn't good but the 367 yards per game is solid. This team played well on the road last going 3-2 with wins at Iowa State and at TCU. The two area of concerns are the offensive line that returns only two starters and the inexperience at QB. Brewer and Webb will both be good QB's however they are young and inexperienced. Good receiving core (as one would expect) and the player that should have a breakout year this year is Kenny Williams at running back.
SMU returns 6 starters on offense and five on defense. The offensive line appears to be okay with two returning starters and a LSU transfer. However this is an O-Line that gave up 34 sacks last year. Difficult to trust Gilbert entirely and SMU's offensive production bore that out last year. Averaging 30.5 points per game but only on 367 yards per game. In fact SMU only eclipsed the 400 yard mark on 4 occasions last year. The entire D-Line for the Mustangs is new and I would expect Klingsbury to exploit this with the run and specfically Williams. A&M absolutely destroyed this defense last year and 225 yards came on the ground on 42 carries. Expect the gameplan to be similiar for the Red Raiders and their new HC.

Texas Tech relies on the run and keeps the Mustangs in check. Really think this will be lower scoring than most believe. Two QB's that don't really exude confidence and I think there with be a bigger premium placed on running the ball than most think.

Texas Tech 31 SMU 20

 

[rochclone]

Washington State +16.0 at Auburn--Leach and Co. return 16 starters from a year ago and quite frankly that defense wasn't as terrible as people believed. 426 yards per game but they held up okay against the run 163 yds per game and more importantly the YPC was at 4.0. 6 of the front seven return and I think we see an improvement. Always a concern about the speed of the SEC but WSU only gave up 73 rushing yds to UCLA last year, 120 rushing yards to Stanford and really only got gouged by California and Oregon. WSU is much more beatable through the air but Auburn has its issues in the passing department.

Expect WSU offense to improve this year. O-Line returns 4 of the 5 and can only really improve in the area of pass protection. WR's are solid and Marks should have a tremendous year. If Halliday can protect the ball they will have a chance.

Auburn returns 15 starters from 3-9 squad a year ago. Offense was putrid at 18.7 ppg and 305 ypg. Marshall will get the nod at QB but in my opinion he doesn't have a ton of options to throw the ball to. Auburn will focus on running and pounding ball in this game and I think WSU's run numbers support a play. WSU gave up over 50 sacks a game last year but Auburn didn't do a great job of pressuring the passer last year only getting to the QB 22 times. The Tigers are young at LB (outside of Holland) and I think Leach exploits some of that with 4 and 5 WR sets.

Good game this weekend.

Auburn 31 Washington State 24

 

[rochclone]

Some increase of note:

New Mexico -3.5 (Add 0.4) to 1.4 Units
Colorado State -3.0 (Add 0.6) to 2.0 Units
Western Kentucky +4.0 (Add 0.4) to 3.0 Units
UMASS +45.0 (Add 2.4 ) to 2.6 Units
Kansas State -13.5 (Add 0.2) to 0.4 Units
Texas -43.5 (Add 0.4) to 0.6 Units
Oklahoma -21.5 (Add 0.8) to 1.0 Units

 

[bloodhound]

ahhhhhh a man after my own heart...find those winners roch

GL on the season pard

 

[CASH]

thanks for the response, nice job on TT

 

[rochclone]

Pretty solid day yesterday. I will have the totals up later. Go Ohio and Colorado State. People will be able to make lots of money fading my Iowa State Cyclones this year.

 

[rochclone]

Elevating Colorado State again by 0.8 units at -2.5 to make it a 2.8 unit play now.

 

[rochclone]

With Florida State -10.5 (3.0 Units) pending these are the final week one numbers


0.2 Units Plays (6-7-1)

0.4 Unit Plays (7-3-0)

0.6 Unit Plays (5-4-0)

0.8 Unit Plays (2-4-0)

1.0 Unit Plays (3-1-0)

1.2 Unit Plays (1-1-0)

1.4 Unit Plays (1-1-0)

1.6 Unit Plays (2-1-0)

1.8 Unit Plays (3-1-0)

2.0 Unit Plays (0-2-0)

2.2 Unit Plays (0-2-0)

2.4 Unit Plays (2-2-0)

2.6 Unit Plays (1-0-1)

2.8 Unit Plays (1-2-0)

3.0 Unit Plays (7-1-0)


Overall 41-31-2 (+14.90 Units) (+$372.55)

 

[The Capping Genius]

With Florida State -10.5 (3.0 Units) pending these are the final week one numbers


0.2 Units Plays (6-7-1)

0.4 Unit Plays (7-3-0)

0.6 Unit Plays (5-4-0)

0.8 Unit Plays (2-4-0)

1.0 Unit Plays (3-1-0)

1.2 Unit Plays (1-1-0)

1.4 Unit Plays (1-1-0)

1.6 Unit Plays (2-1-0)

1.8 Unit Plays (3-1-0)

2.0 Unit Plays (0-2-0)

2.2 Unit Plays (0-2-0)

2.4 Unit Plays (2-2-0)

2.6 Unit Plays (1-0-1)

2.8 Unit Plays (1-2-0)

3.0 Unit Plays (7-1-0)


Overall 41-31-2 (+14.90 Units) (+$372.55)

Nothing wrong with that good start.

GL this week

 

[lkk66]

Great picks as always