Rochclone Week 5 NCAAF

R

rochclone

Pretty much a regular
Week One (44-31-2) +$447.55 +17.90 Units
Week Two (40-35-1 ) -$81.35 -3.25 Units
Week Three (32-28-1) +$45.47 +1.82 Units
Week Four (26-30-2) -$294.05 -11.76 Units

Overall (140-124-6) (52.96%) +$117.62 (+4.70 Units)


Week 4 was an absoute clunker. Missed on some games altogether and failed to finish the job on UL Lafayette (I will never bet on Broadway again) and Kansas State. If those two games finish as W this last week is a break even week. Moving on.

Initial major leans.


Buffalo -1.0--Hard to not see this as a trap being set by Vegas for UCONN. Off of a close upset against Michigan travelling to a MAC team. This is Buffalo's superbowl and Mack will be the best player on the field. UCONN is still the team that got drubbed by Towson.

Kent State +2.5--Archer back for Kent State and Western Michigan lost to Nicholls State.

UTEP +14.0--I realize UTEP is coming off the loss against UTSA but I think UTSA is a solid squad. As they showed as much against better in Arizona and Oklahoma State. Colorado State should not be laying 2 TD's against anyone. I will check for injuries but at first glance this seems off.

Ole Miss +15.5

UTSA +3.0--

Central Florida +7.0--UCF is one of my futures that I have and I think they actually have an opportunity to win this game SU. UCF will be able to move the ball with that offensive line and I think this is a 21-17 type of game either way.

Texas State +11.0--Wyoming is improved by Air Force is a bad team. Tough to lay that many on the road.

Oklahoma State -18.5--The number is low. Should be around 21 which is where it opened. Not sure if Oklahoma State is all that great but it isn't a good match-up for WVU.

Wisconsin +7.0--Ohio State's defense will get exposed a little bit more this week with the Badger running game. Should be a close one.
 
Last edited:
Bout I go a step further w/ UCF, they have a legit chance to win SU here... and Vs. Lville. BOL Roch :cheers:
 
Streakin....I think that Oklahoma is the dominant team here. I don't think Blake Bell is going to move the ball up and down the field like he did against Tulsa. There is going to be some regression from that performance however I think OU's defense is as good as it has been in 4-5 years. Mike Stoops can coach defense and I don't think the defense will be gouged like it was last year by the run. Not having Everett Gohlson obviously has an impact on that. I'm just not that impressed with Notre Dame at this point. I think Michigan is wayyyyyyyy overrated. I would like it better at 3.0 compared to 3.5 or 4.0 but I think OU is the right side.
 
Thursday & Friday's Plays

I want to preface these selections by saying that Week 4 was absolutely horrible and this is the least amount of money I have been 4 weeks into a NCAAF season in a long time. That being said I feel good about the slate this week.

Georiga Tech -7.0 (3.0 Units)--One the highest plays of the week. Georgia Tech's defense should cause Thomas and their offensive fits tonight with some of the exotic blitz schemes. Yellow Jackets escape with a lucky cover last week but I think they have some success tonight against Virginia Tech's defense. One wildcard is turnovers given the limited amount of possessions for Georgia Tech but I think 28-17 is about right tonight.

Iowa State +2.5 (2.6 Units) +3.0 (0.2 Units)--Homer alert. This is a must win for the Iowa State program tonight. They have looked terrible in 6 of the 8 quarters this year losing to Iowa and Nothern Iowa. Played better in the 4th against Iowa and the defense showed significant improvement from Week 1 to Week 3. Key factor from my standpoint is that Iowa State gets its starting center (Tom Farniok) back tonight. He was lost in the 2nd quarter to Northern Iowa and missed the entire Iowa game as well. The running game should benefit from not having to deal with the 3rd string center like they did against Iowa.

Friday

Middle Tennessee State +23.5 (2.4 Units)

San Jose State +9.5 (0.4 Units)
 
Last edited:
0.2 Units (29-31-1 Season Record)
TCU -19.5
Akron +14.5
Troy +11.0
Central Michigan +23.5
Tulane +14.0
Washington State plus 8.5
Hawaii plus 16.5

0.4 Units (19-11-0) Season Record
San Jose State +9.5--loss
LSU +2.5
UTEP +13.5

0.6 Units (15-11-1 Season Record)
Clemson -29.0
Temple -7.5
Texas State +11.5

0.8 Units (8-8-1 Season Record)
Northern Illinois -3.5
Tennessee -20.0
UTSA +2.0
Wisconsin plus 6.5
New Mexico -1.0

1.0 Units (7-6-0 Season Record)
East Carolina +13.0
Florida State -21.5 (0.4 Units) -23.5 (0.6 Units)
Nevada 2H -6.5

1.2 Units (4-4-0 SR)
Southern Miss plus 28.5


1.4 Units (6-4-2 Season Record)
Oklahoma State -18.0
Oklahoma -3.5
 
Last edited:
1.6 Units (6-5-0 Season Record)
Ball State -2.5
Texas AM -15.0

1.8 Units (5-6-0 Season Record)
Florida Atlantic +13.5
San Diego State -17.0
Florida -12.0

2.0 Units (2-5-0 Season Record)
Oregon State -11.0
Army -1.0


2.2 Units (4-4-0 Season Record)
Alabama -14.0
Kent State plus 2.5 (1.2 units) -1.5 (1.0 units)

2.4 Units (4-5-0 Season Record)
Middle Tenn. State +23.5--loss
Buffalo -1.0
 
Last edited:
2.6 Units (4-2-1 Season Record)
Nevada -11.5
California plus 38.0

2.8 Units (3-6-0 Season Record)
Iowa State +2.5 (2.6 Units) +3.0 (0.2 Units)--Won
UAB +19.5


3.0 Units (24-16-0 Season Record)
Georgia Tech -7.0--loss
Miami (Fla) -18.5
Central Florida +7.0
Illinois -24.5
Virginia +5.0
Navy -3.0
Washington -9.5
Missouri -21.5
Iowa -1.0
Arizona State -4.0

A few still out there.
 
Last edited:
A brief write-up on this ISU-Tulsa game.

Iowa State hasn't looked good in its first two outings. The offense was without its best offensive lineman Tom Farniok (center) in all but 1.5 quarters. He returns tonight. The Iowa State offense actually is not nearly as bad as it looks. 5.24 yds/ per play and a majority of that coming through the air. The running game has been ineffective at 113.5 yds per game and only 3.34 yds/carry. However, Sam Richardson has looked good throwing the ball in air hitting at 62% clip and averaging over 251 yds per game. He has a big time target in Bundrage.

Tulsa's defense lost alot from last year and it shows. Tulsa is giving up 5.63 yds per play on defense and over 426 yards per game. 198 yards on the ground so one would expect that ISU should run the ball more effective tonight. For even Colorado State got 167 yds on the ground against Tulsa. Moreover, Tulsa's secondary was stout against Colorado State and Bowling Green but got shredded by Blake Bell. Richardson isn't Bell but he will complete a higher percentage than CSU or BG.

Tulsa's offense has struggled to run the ball at 120 yds per game and 3.65 yds per carry. Likewise though they will be going against an Iowa State defense that struggled against the run at least on paper. ISU is giving up 4.79 yds per carry. However, they limited Iowa to only 3.63 yds per carry. An Iowa has a helluva an offensive line. Alot of improvement from UNI to Iowa. We will see how that translates to tonight. Biggest issue is this last component. Cody Green is a good athlete but he is a horrible passer traditionally. He has completed only 51.32% of his passes this year. Iowa State's defense and secondary is built on making a team complete a high percentage and drive the ball against you. It is all about preventing the big play. Traditionally they have been good at this although this year they have struggled. If Green is forced into 3rd and 5 or greater than Iowa State wins this game easily.

The Play: Iowa State +2.5 (or +3.0) 2.8 Units

Iowa State 34 Tulsa 23
 
Still mot sure how Middle Tenn didn't cover. So many opportunities. Some additions and changes.

Adding more to Alabama now 2.2 units. Kent State now 2.2 Units. Florida State now 1.0 unit.

Major additions of Nevada (2.6 Units) and Iowa -1.0 is now a 3.0 unit play.

Some more to come tonight Arizona State and California will be major plays. Good luck to everyone.
 
Good luck roch
I love it when a poster takes a stand on every game. That's the way I grew up many years ago.
 
Thanks Bull. I think each player has to find the system that works best for them. I tried 7-10 games and straight betting and it just didn't work. For me the biggest struggle was narrowing it down to 7 games each week. I think for us that live and breath college football and know all the conferences that playing more games makes sense. Just my opinion.
 
Final Additions:

Arizona State -4.0 (3.0 Units)
California plus 38.0 (2.6 Units)
Southern Miss plus 28.5 (1.2 Units)
New Mexico -1.0 (0.8 Units)
washington State plus 8.5 (0.2 Units)
Hawaii plus 16.5 (0.2 Units)
 
I think for us that live and breath college football and know all the conferences that playing more games makes sense. Just my opinion.

AGREE with that Roch - I have 42 games today. Lot of them are FCS, of course.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

R
Rochclone Week 3 NCAAF
Replies
13
Views
799
rochclone
R
B.A.R.
Week #1 Discussion
Replies
31
Views
1K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
R
Rochclone Week 1 NCAAF
Replies
19
Views
1K
KJ
KJ
R
Rochclone Week 7 NCAAF
Replies
32
Views
1K
KJ
KJ
R
Rochclone Week 2 NCAAF
Replies
21
Views
734
rochclone
R
Back
Top