Rochclone Week 12 NCAAF

[rochclone]

Week One 44-31-2 +$447.55 (+17.90 Units)
Week Two 40-35-1 -$81.35 (-3.25 Units)
Week Three 32-28-1 +$45.47 (+1.82 Units)
Week Four 26-30-2 -$294.05 (-11.76 Units)
Week Five 26-23-0 +$278.00 (+11.12 Units)
Week Six 25-30-0 -$653.75 (-26.15 Units)
Week Seven 31-20-0 +$561.05 (+22.44 Units)
Week Eight 28-20-1 -$177.75 (-7.11 Units)
Week Nine 24-27-3 -$284.17 (-11.36 Units)
Week Ten 27-23-0 +$121.00 (+4.84 Units)
Week Eleven 23-30-1 -$44.75 (-1.79 Units)


Overall 324-297-10 -$82.75 (-3.31 Units)

Quite frankly lucky to survive last week only two 1.79 units

Will update Future Record later but looks as if +5.0 units will be worse case scenario.


Today's Plays:

Ohio +10.0 (1.0 Unit)
Buffalo +4.5 (3.0 Units)



Gl to all.

 

[rochclone]

Really good start last night.

Today's Plays:

Miami (Ohio) +17.5 (0.8 Units)
Ball State +9.0 (2.4 Units)

 

[rochclone]

0.2 Units (Season Record 57-54-2)


0.4 Units (Season Record 33-28-0)


0.6 Units (Season Record 30-23-1)
Georgia Tech +10.5


0.8 Units (Season Record 22-23-1)
Miami (Ohio +17.5--Loss


1.0 Unit (Season Record 18-13-1)
Ohio +10.0--Lost
UCLA -2.5

1.2 Units (Season Record 8-11-0)


1.4 Units (Season Record 15-10-2)


1.6 Units (Season Record 9-14-0)


1.8 Units (Season Record 12-13-0)


2.0 Units (Season Record 9-13-0)


2.2 Units (Season Record 13-8-0)


2.4 Units (Season Record 13-11-0)
Ball State +9.0--Lost
Marshall -13.0

2.6 Units (Season Record 10-8-1)


2.8 Units (Season Record 9-17-0)


3.0 Units (Season Record 66-51-1)
Buffalo +4.5--Loss

 

[rochclone]

Really like the following:

Duke +3.0
Central Michigan -2.5--Traditionally have played well under Enos late in the year and 6-6 plus bowl is still a possibility
North Carolina +1.0
Central Florida -16.5
West Virginia -6.5
Auburn -3.5
Oklahoma State -3.0
Nebraska +6.5
USC +3.5
Colorado State -6.0
Kansas State -10.0-
Arkansas State -7.5

 

[bull]

roch -let me review your strategy here.

the lower unit value equals lo confidence and the highest = games where you feel the most confidence - correct?

looks like lower unit values do OK- (might lose juice ??)
middle units not so good
and games above 2.0 show definite profit.
would you agree with that rough analysis

I play 35-45 games a week. Granted some of those are FCS so the 35-45 figure might be inflated.
I find that I am terrible in Hi-profile games ( like ALA-LSU ) or most ND games or games where there is a dominant presence on the tube - but a lot of my marginal plays turn out OK. I dont know what this tells us except that our experiences may be similar -- granted mine is a smaller universe.
Anyway, I always like to come into your threads and see what you are doing. Keep it coming.

 

[rochclone]

Bull,

Always enjoy your thoughts. I have been terrible on my second level plays from 1.2 Units to 2.0 Units. And I will have to examine during the off-season if some of those plays were "forced" and should have been graded lower. The biggest problem this year has been a time commitment to capping because of family and work. Always a tough spot when you aren't turning a big enough profit to justify the time commitment. All I hope is that I can win a damn game tonight and not start the week 0-6. Ball State game was difficult to watch.

 

[rochclone]

Need a win this week in a bad way.

Tonight's Plays:
Georgia Tech +10.5 (0.6 Units)
Marshall -13.0 (2.4 Units)

Friday's Play:
UCLA -2.5 (1.0 Unit)

 

[rochclone]

0-6 this week and counting. Love how Marshall turned the ball over 6 times yesterday...at this point they are the equivalent of Memphis (b-ball) and the MAC when it comes to shady.


0.2 Unit Plays
Purdue +21.5
Maryland +16.5
Akron -7.0
UAB +28.0
Georgia State +21.0
Navy -7.5


0.4 Unit Plays
Troy +28.0
NC State +7.0
SMU -15.0


0.6 Unit Plays
Georgia Tech +10.5--Loss
FAU -17.5
Washington State +11.0

 

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0.8 Unit Plays
Miami (Ohio) +17.5--Loss
Iowa State +24.0

1.0 Unit Plays
Ohio +10.0--Loss
UCLA -2.5
Colorado -2.5
Rice -15.5

1.2 Unit Plays
Indiana +24.0
Oregon -26.0

1.4 Unit Plays
Baylor -27.5

 

[rochclone]

1.6 Unit Plays
Syracuse +38.0

1.8 Unit Plays
Illinois +32.5
West Virginia -6.5


2.0 Unit Plays
Nebraska +6.0
Northwestern -3.0


2.2 Unit Plays
North Carolina +1.0

2.4 Unit Plays
Ball State +9.0--Loss
Marshall -13.0--Loss


2.6 Unit Plays
Houston +16.0
South Carolina -12.5

 

[rochclone]

2.8 Unit Plays
Cincinnati +1.0
Central Florida -16.5


3.0 Unit Plays
Buffalo +4.5--Loss
Central Michigan -2.5
Vanderbilt -12.0
Duke +3.5
Auburn -3.5
Kansas State -10.5
Oklahoma State -3.0
South Florida +1.5
Arkansas State -7.5

 

[rochclone]

Following additions:
Colorado State -7.0 (3.0 Units)
USC plus 3.5 (1.4 Units)
FIU plus 6.0 (0.2 Units)

 

[rochclone]

San Jose State -7.0 (0.2 Units)
Wyoming plus 24.0 (0.4 Units)
Arizona State -15.0 (0.8 Units)

San Diego State will be a 3.0 Unit play later.

 

[rochclone]

Alabama -24.0 (1.6 Units)

 

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BYU -46.0 (0.2 Units)

 

[rochclone]

San Diego State -4.5 (3.0 Units)