Bahamas Bowl:
Middle Tenn State +4.5 ($265)
MTSU/WMU Over 65.0 ($100)
MTSU TT Over 31.0 ($50)
Hawaii Bowl:
San Diego State -3.5 ($250) -3.0 ($125)
SDSU/Cincy Over 56.0 ($60)
SDSU TT Over 29.5 ($175)
Bahamas Bowl: A couple of 7-5 squads and I give a slight edge to WMU put I think this comes down to the wire. MTSU is on a nice little four game winning streak and although the competition (outside of Marshall) has been underwhelming they have been dominant averaging 496 yds on offense during that period of time and allowing only 357 yds per game. The only teams to beat the Blue Raiders by more than four this year were Louisiana Tech, Alabama and Western Kentucky all of which I think are better than WMU and all of those games were on the road. If MTSU can make WMU once dimensional and I think they have the ability to stop the run (giving up 3.8 yds per carry this year) then they will win this game. WMU is very average on defense giving up 411 yds per game and against teams similar to MTSU (Central Michigan and NIU) they gave up over 450 yds a game. I will likely add a MTSU prop for Stockstill (if available) and a MTSU TT.
Hawaii Bowl: Going with my man Rocky Long tonight as this Aztec team has made me a lot of money this year. Entering the game at 10-3 and on a nine game winning streak I know there are some respected cappers that think this winning streak is a product of the underwhelming MWC. Although that certainly is a factor, this Aztec squad has also grown exponentially since the early season slate in September. The one-two punch of Pumphrey (who I will have a prop on tonight for sure) and Chase Price has been difficult for opposing defenses to stop. The Aztecs are averaging 235 yds on the ground and 4.9 yds per carry this year. Against their final nine opponents that increases to 277 yds per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Most importantly they commit to the run averaging 53 runs per game on this nine game winning streak. Furthermore, the Aztec defense is solid getting to the QB 33 times this year and giving up just 177 yds per game through the air this year. Cincy can sling it around and the Cincy QB is probably the best SDSU has seen since Cal. But I don't know how Cincy stops the rushing attack of SDSU. Bearcats are giving up 5.0 yds per carry this year and 190 yds per game on the ground. And quite frankly when looking at teams I want to bet for/against on Christmas eve I would like the team that is mentally and physically tough.....toughness travels. Against a similar "tough" squad committed to the run the Bearcats lost 27-65 to USF. Cincy backers are looking at this being a Cincy/Temple type game minus the turnovers. SDSU is much better than Temple on the ground. Personally, I think this is a route where SDSU gets up early and continues to pummel that Cincy D-line.
Have a great Christmas everyone.
