Road Favorites vs. Home Underdogs

cogenman

cogenman

Raider Nation for Life
Road Favorites vs. Home Underdogs (SEASON LONG TRACKER)

They say if you take all home dogs for the year, you'll end up winning money at the end of the season. But can you really take a shitty home team against a good road team? I'm gonna try and keep track on the season of how it goes. Since the lines move, i'll use the last line just before the game starts.

SEASON LONG HOME DOGS (18-17)

Week 1 Home Dogs (2-2)

Buffalo (+3) Win
Clev (+4.5) Loss
G.B. (+3) Win
NYJ (+6.5) Loss

Week 2 Home Dogs(4-1)

Clev(+7) W
T.B. (4.5) W
Tenn (+7) W
Ariz (+3) W
Mia (+3.5) L

Week 3 Home Dogs (2-1)

G.B. (+5.5) W
Hou (+6.5) W
ATL (+4) L

Week 4 Home Dogs (6-3)

Atl (+2.5) W
Clev (+4) W
Det (+2.5) W
Minny (+1) L
Buff (+3) W
S.F. (+1.5) L
Ariz (+5.5.) W
NYG (+1.5) W
Cincy (+7.5) L

Week 5 Home Dogs (3-2)

KC (+2) L
St. L (+3.5) W
Den (+1.5) L
S.F. (+4) W
Buff (+10) W

Week 6 Home Dogs (1-3)

KC (+2.5) W
NYJ (+4.5) L
Dal (+5) L
Atl (+5) L

Week 7 Home Dogs (0-5) OUCH!!

St. L (+3) L
Car (+7) L
Minny (-1) L
Cincy (+4) L
SF (+1.5) L
 
Last edited:
GL, i am interested on how this trend turns out. I have heard the same thing but have never had enough cohonas to put some money down on it for a whole season.
 
cant find my 06 excel sheet 00-05

playin home dog at +1 an higher, not countin pick games

2005 27-45-3
2004 36-43-3
2003 38-35-2
2002 52-36-2
2001 42-35-5
2000 35-37-0
 
I think if you really examine all the dogs week by week, you can eliminate the no plays and pick out the plays. Avoid the teams with the question marks, and take the teams that looked formidable in all phases in week 1.

In week 2: Let's avoid Cleveland with obvious QB issues and avoid Tampa with a banged up RB in Williams.

That leaves us with Tenn, Miami, and Arizona as potential plays in week 2. I can almost guarantee at least one of these teams will win SU.
 
Your right Believe. I think Arizona beats Seattle outright. I'm not impressed with Seattle, that win was against a bad TB team. And Tenn played Indy well last year, beating them one game outright if I remember right. They might expose Indy's run defense like they did last year.
 
Hope this formats OK.....I pulled the data fro WinPicks and added the breakdown by lines. Last year was 44-33-3. My data is similar to Tru's maybe a game or 2 different based on line used, but point still same





<TABLE style="WIDTH: 408pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=543 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 101pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4900" width=134><COL style="WIDTH: 62pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2998" width=82><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 53pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2596" width=71><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 408pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=543 colSpan=7 height=17>ALL DATA FROM WIN PICKS DATA BASE</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2006</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2005</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2004</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2003</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2002</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 18pt" height=24><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 18pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=24>As Home Dog</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">All Lines</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">44-33-2</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">29-49-3</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">39-45-3</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">38-34-5</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">54-36-2</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">PK -> 2.5</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'5-8-1">5-8-1</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'7-9-0">7-9-0</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'10-13-0">10-13-0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'9-3-0">9-3-0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">17-7-0</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">3 -> 6.5</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">30-22-1</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">18-30-1</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">19-21-3</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">19-24-4</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">26-23-2</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">7 -> 9.5</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">8-1-0 *</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'2-7-2">2-7-2</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'7-9-0">7-9-0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'9-2-1">9-2-1</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'11-5-0">11-5-0</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">10 -> 13.5</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'1-2-0">1-2-0</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'2-1-0">2-1-0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'3-2-0">3-2-0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'1-0-0">1-0-0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="'0-1-0">0-1-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
BeLIEve811 said:
I think if you really examine all the dogs week by week, you can eliminate the no plays and pick out the plays. Avoid the teams with the question marks, and take the teams that looked formidable in all phases in week 1.

In week 2: Let's avoid Cleveland with obvious QB issues and avoid Tampa with a banged up RB in Williams.

That leaves us with Tenn, Miami, and Arizona as potential plays in week 2. I can almost guarantee at least one of these teams will win SU.
Click to expand...

What you're assuming here is that all the home dogs that had "question marks" always lost their games.

These types of trends tend to vary year to year. And in fact, based on Tru's numbers, you can tell that it's not really a trend at all. :4_12_13:
 
The biggest gains were after week 5.
If you can find the results for games after week 5 for Home dogs you will see it was almost 85%.
:smiley_acak:SWEET
 
Break da BANK said:
The biggest gains were after week 5.
If you can find the results for games after week 5 for Home dogs you will see it was almost 85%.
Click to expand...

that brings up another key point. It's not always about following a certain trend. It's about finding "corrections" to a trend such as this. If after 5 weeks, home dogs are 16-4 ATS, you can start looking at the road favorites as the "market" (or the oddsmakers' reaction to) corrects itself.

A buddy of mine is completing his doctorate in economics this coming year, and i've got him into studying baseball betting as an efficient market. Going back to 2003, he's had a T.A. compile some interesting data on +200's in baseball. It's not so much betting on or against the big dogs, it's knowing when to bet on them throughout the season.
 
Last year after week 5 for all underdogs home and away was massive. If you bet all the dogs in the NFL the last 6 weeks of the season you would own a tropical island right now.:smiley_acac:
It was crazy the last half of the season last year for all dogs...
 
OK, well not exactly 85% for Home Dogs.....at least put some numbers behind the 85% claim.....:cheers:LOL!!!!

After Week 5...

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 244pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=325 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 100pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4864" width=133><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 244pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=325 colSpan=4 height=17>Team History</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" colSpan=4 height=17 x:str="All Teams, After Any Game, vs. Any Opponent, ">All Teams, After Any Game, vs. Any Opponent, </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" colSpan=4 height=17>From Sun. Oct 15, 2006 To Sun. Feb 4, 2007</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Situation</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Lines</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">ATS</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Pct</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>As Dog</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">All Lines</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">110-72-4 *</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.60399999999999998">60.40%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>As Home Dog</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">All Lines</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">30-22-2</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.57699999999999996">57.70%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>As Away Dog</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">All Lines</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">80-50-2 *</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.61499999999999999">61.50%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
mzldr2 said:
OK, well not exactly 85% for Home Dogs.....at least put some numbers behind the 85% claim.....:cheers:LOL!!!!

After Week 5...

<table style="width: 244pt; border-collapse: collapse;" x:str="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="325"><colgroup><col style="width: 100pt;" width="133"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="3" width="64"></colgroup><tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl23" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 244pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="4" height="17" width="325">Team History</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl23" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="4" x:str="All Teams, After Any Game, vs. Any Opponent, " height="17">All Teams, After Any Game, vs. Any Opponent, </td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl23" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="4" height="17">From Sun. Oct 15, 2006 To Sun. Feb 4, 2007</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17"></td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;"></td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;"></td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;"></td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">Situation</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">Lines</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">ATS</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">Pct</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">As Dog</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">All Lines</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">110-72-4 *</td><td class="xl22" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="0.60399999999999998" align="right">60.40%</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">As Home Dog</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">All Lines</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">30-22-2</td><td class="xl22" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="0.57699999999999996" align="right">57.70%</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">As Away Dog</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">All Lines</td><td style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">80-50-2 *</td><td class="xl22" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="0.61499999999999999" align="right">61.50%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Click to expand...

Wow - so away dogs are actually the best last year.. that's pretty interesting.
 
Home dogs for the first 2 weeks of the NFL are now 6-3, going 4-1 this week in the nfl. I still can't get myself to take shitty teams like Clev and bet against good teams like Indy today. Over the course of a year, I think you will win money, we'll see how they do next week again.

SEASON LONG HOME DOGS (6-3)

Week 2 Home Dogs(4-1)

Clev(+7) W
T.B. (4.5) W
Tenn (+7) W
Ariz (+3) W
Mia (+3.5) L

Week 1 Home Dogs (2-2)

Buffalo (+3) Win
Clev (+4.5) Loss
G.B. (+3) Win
NYJ (+6.5) Loss
 
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This week so far there are 3 home dogs currently. They are Houston (+6), G.B. (+4), and Atlanta (+4). Can anybody actually take Houston probably w/o Andre Johnson against Indy? No way I take Atlanta. G.B. seems like a decent pick, looks like defenses are keying on LT and Gates by putting 8 men in the box, and making Rivers beat them with his wr's. So far he hasn't. And G.B.'s defense seems like the real deal.
 
I think, i would give houston a shot. Their defensive line is what has impressed me so far. Also, for the system to work you have to play every home dog that week. It will be interesting to see if houston covers or if they don't cover is it because Andre Johnson wasn't playing.
 
Week 4 bring alot of early home dogs. So far there is ATL, Clev, Det, Minny, Buff, SF, Ariz, and NYG all at home and getting points.

No way I can take they shitty teams like Atl, Clev, Buff, but if Rex Grossman's sorry ass starts, I like Det. Even with a bad defense, the Lions won't have to worry about it with Rex starting. I also like SF getting points at home to Seattle. They usually play the Seahawks pretty tough. Will Minny beat G.B. at home? Going against Favre when he's in a dome usually pays out, but Kelly Holcomb is most likely starting.
 
So far this week Home dogs are 6-2 with Cincy pending. Anybody gonna take the Bengals? Despite all the success of the Home dogs, i'm taking N.E. Tom Brady should be able to carve up that secondary.
 
week 5 home dogs 3-2 for another winning week. too bad I didn't take many of them, only KC and loss, lol. Here are some of week 6 home dogs......

K.C. (+3) KC's bad offense won't be able to keep up with Cincy offense.
NYJ (+2.5) If this gets to 3, maybe. I don't like Philly as road chalk.
Dal (+4.5) I might take this one with them being at home. NE 5 wide offense will carve up the Cowboy secondary tho. Wait and get a better line.
Atl (+3.5) With Joey Harrington at qb, i'll never take them. He had 87 yards passing on 31 attempts??!! Only 2.8 yards/per attempt. Gotta stretch the field.
 
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