CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Ended up a nice winner on games last week, then pissed almost all of it away on 2H plays without my setup. Don't care if your hotel TV gets five games and seven games and you memorize the channel they are all on (for the Noon and 330 EDT kicks) - the setup in my home office is so much better. I deserved to lose by betting that shit anyways.
To this week:
308 We Are Marshall -3 med 2u. Just laying a short number. USM has comfortable covers in every game, but I made a big adjustment up this week and still had the Blundering Turd as slightly above a touchdown favorite. The opener in the 6.5 range (7.5 at BOL) seemed about right. I'll try to beat the steam this week. Maybe Billy phonied down the dog last night right when the NFL game kicked, but that's not his M-O. I'm guessing I'll have to beat him, too. Bring it.
Gun to my head would lay the 2 with VT in the other game; getting some folks back from injury and suspension and I'm not a big NC State fan as anyone knows by now.
311 *EDIT* Texas +17 med 2u. Let all the Texas and Strong haters give it to me again, but no way that Okie can lay this sort of number. They were one of the two teams that beat me last week (i thought WV played them pretty even, but mistakes and turnovers doomed them) but I'll try to go after them again. Texas won outright as a DD-dog two years back, and lost by 5 despite totally dominating last year catching about this same number. Horns have a bye coming, can see a balls-out effort coming here after all the shit that went down in Fort Worth last week... Okie with bigger fish to fry (K-State and Tech coming) and any sort of win will satisfy the Sooners. Would take 16.5 for slightly less if you can't get to a 17.
314 Purdue ML +140 med 2u. Wrong team favored here. Purdue has found its QB of the future and battled last week in Lansing despite getting little to no luck in the first half. Minnesota has done yet another admirable job under a coach that outperforms his Pythag win total by 3 every year it seems. Luck runs out in Lafayette. Too many injuries to overcome (eight starters will miss, or so?) here. Boiler Up!
Liked West By God again this week against another smoke-and-mirrors team in Okie Light, but they lost the best defensive back if not the best defensive player in all of college football to a knee injury Tuesday, so I have to pass and see how the secondary looks without him.
319 Indiana +7 med 2u. Hoosiers mandled Penn State by 3 touchdowns in Bloomington two years ago when Sudfeld piloted the attack. Lost by six at home with Diamont as the QB for an out-for-the-year Sudfeld. With Sudfeld supposedly good to go this weekend, think IU can handle Penn State in Happy Valley. The Hoosiers were without Latham, Howard AND Sudfeld at the end against the No. 1 team in the country and had a throw into the end zone from 9 yards out at the end down by seven. Howard is a bit more iffy. If he goes, this game should be closer to a pick. Still, Penn State is really struggling on offense and the IU defense seems to have improved greatly from game-to-game. If they can get to 27 or 28 here, they'll have a great chance to win.
321 Duke -12.5 med 2u. I would go for more here because my number supports a bigger play, but it's buyer beware with the Devils laying double digits. I made a big bump UP on Army after the last two, yet I still think the line here should be north of 17, not south of 13. An easy lay that I hope I'm not kicking myself over Saturday at 3 Eastern.
Lean 326 Iowa and will consider laying 10 there small.
Like 330 BC against Wake but I missed the play waiting on a better number earlier and the move put it to 7.5. I can't force myself to lay two possessions with BC's pedestrian offense. I'll pass for now, small play if 7 pops again and between 1.2 and 1.5 if a 6 or 6.5 pops.
Made 332 OU way higher against Miami O but who knows what to expect from those schizos. Also made 334 Toledo way higher against Kent State this week but they might be in cruise control for the rest of their Saturday games; no tests come for the Dildos until the mid-week MACtion games next month.
Looking at 335 Ball State as a small play at +11 or more but not any less than that. Tackling and positioning was very subpar last week. Each team 2-3 and I don't see much with the NIU offense but they have played a better set of defense than the Nadders have.
357 Rice +4 big. Also some +155 for another unit. Not sure where they got the line for Arroz/FAU. I guess the Owls have their QB back but I was fortune as hell to get any sort of result when they beat UNC-Charlotte in the Shit Bowl a few weeks back. Rice has outplayed Texas for long stretches, beaten two other teams and were outclassed by offenses (Baylor, WKy) that are the best in the country. No such thing exists for Florida Atlantic. Really not sure what the deal is here, but it will cost me if I'm wrong.
Oregon getting cheap at 17 but F if i'm going to bet them. Don't like them to begin with, and Wazzou has fired backdoor shots for years.
364 Western Kentucky -8 med to big 2.5u. Wky has showed some early firepower in these noontime starts in the last two weeks, so expect another good start and little struggles with a Middle Tenny team that has played in Tuscaloosa, Champaign and at home against Vandy in the last four weeks. Real tough spot for the Blue Raiders.
375 Jorja Tech +7 med 2u and +240 ML for 1u more. Clempson almost pissed things away last week. They do have a revenge angle this week, as their only loss in the last 10 games in 2014 was a 28-6 mauling in Atlanta in which the QB got injured and Stout came in and tossed two long pick-6's for the Jackets. GT hasn't been a dog yet this season (depending on where you shopped when they played at Notre Dame), but they were six times in 2014, covering in all and winning five times outright in that preferred role. This one is right in Paul Johnson's sweet spot. Outright...
378 U-La-La -4 med 2u. The Cajuns haven't been able to get the running game cranked up much to this point, but Texas State's defense is a sieve so this could be the spot for a good explosion for ULL. I made the game 8.5, so it's an easy lay even against Fran.
Looking at 411 SD State, as i made them a favorite even if the RB misses. Anyone with help there, I'm all ears. Hawaii traveled to mainland twice in back to back weeks, might still not be right yet. Three times they've been shut out already, and now laying points?
A few others are on the radar, so I'll chime in with them if I end up doing anything tomorrow.
GL to all :shake:
To this week:
308 We Are Marshall -3 med 2u. Just laying a short number. USM has comfortable covers in every game, but I made a big adjustment up this week and still had the Blundering Turd as slightly above a touchdown favorite. The opener in the 6.5 range (7.5 at BOL) seemed about right. I'll try to beat the steam this week. Maybe Billy phonied down the dog last night right when the NFL game kicked, but that's not his M-O. I'm guessing I'll have to beat him, too. Bring it.
Gun to my head would lay the 2 with VT in the other game; getting some folks back from injury and suspension and I'm not a big NC State fan as anyone knows by now.
311 *EDIT* Texas +17 med 2u. Let all the Texas and Strong haters give it to me again, but no way that Okie can lay this sort of number. They were one of the two teams that beat me last week (i thought WV played them pretty even, but mistakes and turnovers doomed them) but I'll try to go after them again. Texas won outright as a DD-dog two years back, and lost by 5 despite totally dominating last year catching about this same number. Horns have a bye coming, can see a balls-out effort coming here after all the shit that went down in Fort Worth last week... Okie with bigger fish to fry (K-State and Tech coming) and any sort of win will satisfy the Sooners. Would take 16.5 for slightly less if you can't get to a 17.
314 Purdue ML +140 med 2u. Wrong team favored here. Purdue has found its QB of the future and battled last week in Lansing despite getting little to no luck in the first half. Minnesota has done yet another admirable job under a coach that outperforms his Pythag win total by 3 every year it seems. Luck runs out in Lafayette. Too many injuries to overcome (eight starters will miss, or so?) here. Boiler Up!
Liked West By God again this week against another smoke-and-mirrors team in Okie Light, but they lost the best defensive back if not the best defensive player in all of college football to a knee injury Tuesday, so I have to pass and see how the secondary looks without him.
319 Indiana +7 med 2u. Hoosiers mandled Penn State by 3 touchdowns in Bloomington two years ago when Sudfeld piloted the attack. Lost by six at home with Diamont as the QB for an out-for-the-year Sudfeld. With Sudfeld supposedly good to go this weekend, think IU can handle Penn State in Happy Valley. The Hoosiers were without Latham, Howard AND Sudfeld at the end against the No. 1 team in the country and had a throw into the end zone from 9 yards out at the end down by seven. Howard is a bit more iffy. If he goes, this game should be closer to a pick. Still, Penn State is really struggling on offense and the IU defense seems to have improved greatly from game-to-game. If they can get to 27 or 28 here, they'll have a great chance to win.
321 Duke -12.5 med 2u. I would go for more here because my number supports a bigger play, but it's buyer beware with the Devils laying double digits. I made a big bump UP on Army after the last two, yet I still think the line here should be north of 17, not south of 13. An easy lay that I hope I'm not kicking myself over Saturday at 3 Eastern.
Lean 326 Iowa and will consider laying 10 there small.
Like 330 BC against Wake but I missed the play waiting on a better number earlier and the move put it to 7.5. I can't force myself to lay two possessions with BC's pedestrian offense. I'll pass for now, small play if 7 pops again and between 1.2 and 1.5 if a 6 or 6.5 pops.
Made 332 OU way higher against Miami O but who knows what to expect from those schizos. Also made 334 Toledo way higher against Kent State this week but they might be in cruise control for the rest of their Saturday games; no tests come for the Dildos until the mid-week MACtion games next month.
Looking at 335 Ball State as a small play at +11 or more but not any less than that. Tackling and positioning was very subpar last week. Each team 2-3 and I don't see much with the NIU offense but they have played a better set of defense than the Nadders have.
357 Rice +4 big. Also some +155 for another unit. Not sure where they got the line for Arroz/FAU. I guess the Owls have their QB back but I was fortune as hell to get any sort of result when they beat UNC-Charlotte in the Shit Bowl a few weeks back. Rice has outplayed Texas for long stretches, beaten two other teams and were outclassed by offenses (Baylor, WKy) that are the best in the country. No such thing exists for Florida Atlantic. Really not sure what the deal is here, but it will cost me if I'm wrong.
Oregon getting cheap at 17 but F if i'm going to bet them. Don't like them to begin with, and Wazzou has fired backdoor shots for years.
364 Western Kentucky -8 med to big 2.5u. Wky has showed some early firepower in these noontime starts in the last two weeks, so expect another good start and little struggles with a Middle Tenny team that has played in Tuscaloosa, Champaign and at home against Vandy in the last four weeks. Real tough spot for the Blue Raiders.
375 Jorja Tech +7 med 2u and +240 ML for 1u more. Clempson almost pissed things away last week. They do have a revenge angle this week, as their only loss in the last 10 games in 2014 was a 28-6 mauling in Atlanta in which the QB got injured and Stout came in and tossed two long pick-6's for the Jackets. GT hasn't been a dog yet this season (depending on where you shopped when they played at Notre Dame), but they were six times in 2014, covering in all and winning five times outright in that preferred role. This one is right in Paul Johnson's sweet spot. Outright...
378 U-La-La -4 med 2u. The Cajuns haven't been able to get the running game cranked up much to this point, but Texas State's defense is a sieve so this could be the spot for a good explosion for ULL. I made the game 8.5, so it's an easy lay even against Fran.
Looking at 411 SD State, as i made them a favorite even if the RB misses. Anyone with help there, I'm all ears. Hawaii traveled to mainland twice in back to back weeks, might still not be right yet. Three times they've been shut out already, and now laying points?
A few others are on the radar, so I'll chime in with them if I end up doing anything tomorrow.
GL to all :shake:
