Rexy's Week 5 Niffel...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
I'll take a stab with Indy tonight. Whether Luck misses (he will, information that I wasn't sure about until the inactives got released despite the earlier reports this morning) or Hasselhoff is too sick (he is, which means Josh Johnson has to be ready to earn his $43k paycheck), Indy still is the better team on both sides.

The Colts get back some of the corners who have been out, and DT Anderson, who will introduce himself to a not-up-to-game-speed Arian Foster early and often. This is the first time all season the Colts have had their top three corners. On paper, it's a simple game to prepare for on that side of the ball. Stack the box, roll the coverage over to Hopkins and try to let anyone else beat you, including the Houston quarterbacks, both of which are subpar and have zero business laying more than a field goal, ever. Two of the three top Houston wideouts are inactive.

On the other side, before you start laughing at me this does look like a game where Frank Gore might be able to have some success on paper. It will also be interesting to see if the Colts try to spread out Houston. They had some success early in the game when the Jags were playing zone against the Colts' empty sets. Once the Jags adjusted to more man, Hasselhoff struggled more in those formations. He seemed most comfotable throwing between the numbers on timing routes - it remains to be seen whether that was what he preferred or whether he took it because of Jacksonville playing a lot of early zone. I was impressed with Indy putting together a lot of long drives despite not being able to establish the run. Colts O-line did a decent job when Jags only rushed four last week but the four coming tonight are a bit more fearsome. But there's little doubt that the Colts are a less vertical offense with Hasselhoff (yes, I'm sitting Moncrief on the bench in fantasy again).

Prediction: Indy 20, Houston 18
The play: Colts +5.5 flat med 2u. Would take the widely-available +5 for the same right now.

GL; back with the rest of the professional foots tomorrow or Sunday!

:shake:
 
Three D's for today.

Denver.
Detroit.
Dallas.

468 Detroit +4 med 2u. Everyone knows I'm a huge Arizona fan and their coach is the best in the league. Betting against him gives me a headache. That said, fundamentals favor Detroit if you take out the short week situation. Leos got pretty well jobbed by refs on MNF and they'll be eager to atone for that. While this is not a great team, they are certainly far from the worst and the league wants these people to get happy at some point. Hell, they had to suffer with the Tigers shitting themselves all summer and are set for the Red Wings sans Babcock for the first time in forever and the Pistons being mediocre at best again. First home day game of the year for Lions and while there might be boo-birds early, this is still a team that will compete with anyone on most days and catching four here is a bonus. My call for the outright win is tempered a bit by the other coach being the best and finding a way to win by 1 or 2, or even 3! Ballsweater most likely, points are the way to go.

470 Dallass +9 med 2u. Pats got the bye at a bad time. Were running hotter than anyone, so I expect a bit of rust today. Dallass gets Hardy to add to the defensive mix, and Lee's concussion seems to have passed and he'll go as well. At the risk of getting laughed at the way BAR and others did to me when I bet these stiffs before Atlanta carved them up two weeks ago, I think the D is competent and the O is capable. They don't have to win, just make enough plays to get an early lead, find a hot running back, and keep it tight til the end.

471 Denver -4 med 2u. Oakland has made great strides, it's still a far cry for them to expect to compete with this monster, which boasts the league's best defense and the best quarterback in league history. Denver has seven straight wins and covers in the 18 Era in this series, and this line is about as short as any that he's had to lay. Thanks to the Raiders for their great start in giving us this discount today!

:shake:

GL!
 
I could see the Lions staying in it - if they don't get picked. Strong on the over for me. No Side here.

Ive lived with Bad QB's. Weeden isn't the answer. Regardless - GL on Dallas

Broncos are still failing at scoring like LY and the Raiders actually "believe" in themselves. Denver should win - but the Raiders have a way of playing close this season so far. No side for me.

Hope you sweep today,.
 
agree with your analysis on dall....though I doubt ne will be rusty...i think dall is good enough to keep it within the number

greatest qb of all time showing signs of father time...agree oaks start has deflated line...thanks for keeping me off oak

great write up on det


gl and thanks as always for your input
 
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