Rexy's Week 4 CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Another winning week last week, although the halftime stuff was choppy and i think a small loser. My pregame numbers held up good last week, with Cincy and Temple being the notable exception losers. Everything else was a right-side winner, so long as you are okay with Texas scoring 20 and not 21 in the 4Q to somehow not win in overtime.

Games are going to be lighting up and off all afternoon; I'll try to do the best I can to update them in the line moves thread if anything credible is behind them. Worst case, I'll recap it all tonight in one long post before I cash out - this is a long weekend coming.

This could lose, but I guess they're gonna get me again on BYU. Very difficult spot, but I have them as a better team on paper than Mishitgan.

The play: BYU +7 medium 2u.

Made Mishitgan State way higher, and I imagine they're heading a bit of criticism after last week's apathetic effort against the Flyboys.

The play: Sparty -26.5 med 2u.

Who is Kentucky to be laying points to the 2-time defending East champs, who have also won 11 straight away from Columbia?

The play: Mizzou +125 med 2u.

I underestimated Houston two weeks ago at the pizza palace. Never again.

The play: Houston -16.5 small to med 1.5u.

San Diego State looked half-asleep last week to South Bama, and got what they deserved. I respect Rocky Long too much to think it'll happen twice in a row, and the start time isn't 9 am, which helps.

The play: SD State +15 small to med 1.5u

I wanted to take 7 with Purdue. Should have taken the 6.5 and 6 when I had the chance. Missed it; pass. Let me rephrase. I didn't "want" to, but would have had to based on my number.

Will lay Iowa -24 small if it pops. Nothing for now.

Wyoming is real bad. I sure don't like laying more than a field goal with New Mexico; was sitting it out hoping for a better number early in the week because I couldn't bet enough at the 3 flat or better level to make it worthwhile. Still, I'll lay it.

THe play: UNM -3.5 medium 2u.

Lean Rice if they get to +35 or better, nothing for now.

Leaned A&M but missed number; if goes back to 6 or better I'll chime.

Who is Tennessee to lay anything to Florida? The word "streak" doesn't matter here? Those 19 year olds ain't played in a place like the Swamp yet this season.

The play: Florida +105 small to med 1.5u

Deep breath, and.... exhale. Can't believe I'm doing this, but the value has finally swung around to the side I picked to come in last or sixth in the SEC West this season, drawing laughs from most if not all of my friends.

The play: Auburn -2.5 medium 2u

Let me get this straight, they're gonna give me another chance to beat the shit out of this UNC-Charlotte at an absurd line? FAU is way better than their last two games, particularly if the QB is anything close to healthy. Big upgrade between him and the other stiffs they've trotted out the last two weeks.

The play: Fla Atlantic -10 real big 5u play. I told y'all i was gonna get this fuckin Charlotte back for that debacle in the opener. I did last week but I'm not done. This game should be 20 points, not 10, and the phoney down today just proves it.

Lean to Colly St and I can lay 9.5 with a buddy out in Vegas but passing for now.

Texas shut down Okie Light last year at PickensWorld; no reason to think they can't do it again, even with the Cowpokes upgrading at QB since then. They've played nothing to this point and last weekend's score only gives us extra weight to work with at Royal Stadium with the Horns, who will begin to rally under a coach that gets next to no respect down there for some reason.

The play: Texas +3 -105 small 1u and Texas +145 also 1u. Total of a 2u medium play.

That's it for now; GL this week!

:shake:
 
the Jack injury got me a tad concerned, and I only made UCLA -5. I am more anti-Zona than pro-UCLA; if i can get some 2.5 flat then I'll go. Technically, I can out in the desert but one of my buddies might be on the radar at the M and he doesn't need that so I'll see if I can find better offshore tomorrow.
 
Funny you mention SDST looking asleep. I'm still steaming at their sleep walk Bowl performance at home vs Navy.
 
Thanks as always for the pick Rex

I'm curious for any thoughts and was hoping to see you on Ball St. I think NW will have a heck of a time trying to cover that number and expect the Nadders to be able to move the ball through the air on them enough to stay within reach.

Thanks!
 
I personally would make Notre Dame a small favorite in Clempson, would think it comes PICK or Clempson maybe a small (2.5 or less) favorite.
 
I like Ball State a little bit but would have to get 21 to get real interested. The MAC West is there for the taking and that's where CPL's focus is going to be in the big picture. I like the QB change; this kid from Yorktown can really fling it around.
 
I like Ball State a little bit but would have to get 21 to get real interested. The MAC West is there for the taking and that's where CPL's focus is going to be in the big picture. I like the QB change; this kid from Yorktown can really fling it around.

Keep an eye on 2nd half line on this one, Fitz and company usually pack it in if they have any kind of lead. The defense is really good, and the offense is not so good. Will be alot of running 2nd half if they get a 2 score lead. I'm looking at the under 2nd half if the Cats have a 2 score lead at half.
 
More Florida Atlantic (377) -9 -105. This is now my biggest football bet of the year by a good deal and one of my biggest bets in anything in a good while.

If the QB doesn't play, i'll get out of some of it but assuming he does, I'm stealing here. I told y'all i was gonna get this UNCC.
 
Hey Rex - thanks for your great work as always. Your picks last week helped make me a big winner. (also, I used to be Polamalu4pres but when I went to login this morning to post it didn't recognize me/said my email was invalid - weird?)

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the TCU/Texas Tech over today? Last year TCU won 82-27 (109 pts.) Texas Tech's D is pretty awful and TCU's D is not all that either. The O/U is 83.5 for today's game. I could easily see a 56-49 kinda game between these two teams. Is the over a trap? It looks very good to me which usually means something is wrong.

thanks for your input as always - you know college ball better than anyone on CTG.
 
I would only have OVER but they've ruined the number. Although a 3 point move at this level isn't the same thing as say, 45 to 48. TT defense is improved from last year; TCU's is far worse at this point with injuries and suspensions.

Anything resembling your score would not surprise me.
 
great - thanks rex. i guess the only thing holding me back is if TCU really runs away with it (like a 63-14 kind of drubbing) but I actually think Texas Tech has a small/real chance of an upset today which is why I think a 56-49 shoot out is more likely with TCU winning late in the game.
 
shit games

420 SMU -3 for 1.5 units small to medium play.

Reeks of a setup to me. I made 11, CRIS opened 12.5 and was bet down 8 points in 5 minutes.

Too low as Jimmy Mad is a good I-AA team but SMU on the rise and good step down in class from TCU/Baylor types.

:shake:
 
They refused to post lines at the half for the 3 games you posted on but lined every other game...never seen anything like it
 
people out there refuse to understand the basic principles of bookmaking, i've never seen anything like it.

I don't care at all if i tout or bet a side, i'm still gonna write the bets two ways on almost every game i book. If for some reason I get overloaded to the side I like, i can either overadjust and get the buyback, go out and bet more myself if i REALLY like the side, or just grin and bear it and whatever happens, happens.

in the end, a store that is unwilling to write business shouldn't even BE in business.
 
hahaha was on FAU before I saw your pick and I loaded down a little more. How about that BS turd nugget of a game
 
I won small to it with the extra money I laid inside of 10, most of the initial five units was at -10; a bit of it was at better. I'm sure not gonna give it back, as many as i've lost that way in the past.
 
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