CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Another winner last week, albeit only a small one thanks to the 2H Giants shitting the bed. Eli continues to amaze with his idiocy in the pocket in serious situations. Up 20-10 and a chance to put a hammerlock on the game, he fumbers in the red zone. F him, they deserved to be 0-2. I should have had them Thursday but was too gunshy backing him and that coach who walks around over there like someone stuck a bag of shit in his face and opened it up.
A few targeted plays this week:
Back to the well with the Rammers. Obviously this was a big whiff last week but I'll go back to the well and count on another high-level home effort against a dangerous offense but sorry defense. I expect the Rams to control the clock and move the ball up and down the field.
The play: STL even money medium 2u.
At the 1-level, would only have Vikings today but no play - would like to see how much of a physical toll both teams took last week vs. Det and Cincy, respectively. Each team has beaten the Leos - not sure here. Can't get that shitfest for Minny at SF out of my head just yet.
Made Houston right at the number.
Made Jets a little higher and will consider -1 -110 or better small.
Made Carolina lower but that was with Brees. Not sure what he worth but guessing enough to keep me disinterested.
I'm making a good recommendation on Jacksonville for the second straight week. Before you discount me as being nuts, hear me out:
The Jag O-line is better than most realize. They absolutely controlled Ndamukong Suh last week, frustrating the 9-figure free agent enough to have him freelancing in the second half last week. A-gap, B-gap, it didn't matter, they were gashing the talented Miami D-line and should have their way again with New England's D-line. Clock management is key when catching big numbers, and Jag RB's aren't even getting touched until they get through the hole through two games. You can be sure that a Gus Bradley-coached defense will show similarities to the Seattle defense that Belichick prepared for last year - they don't disguise stuff and will do what they do. Zone concepts, not giving up the big play, pressure with the front four blah blah blah. Too many points.
The play: Jags +14 small to med 1.5u
I took Cincy +3 -105 very close to open at pinny last Sunday. Not sure where they got this game. If you can't get the 3, then take the ML (that is how I filled in the rest of my bet, at +120). Two teams going in opposite directions. Cincy might be the best team in the AFC; Baltimore probably won't make the playoffs. The sense-of-urgency shit is overrated - the Ravens just aren't very good. The teams already have a common opponent in the same venue. Cincy blanked the Raiders; Baltimore was life-and-death (ultimately death) despite scoring 33 out there. Wrong favorite.
The play: Cincy +3 -105 med 2u. ML +120 for another unit.
Browns very cheap at home vs. aforementioned Raiders. As much as I like Manziel, today is a good spot for McCown; they moved the ball when he was playing and were generally controlling the game vs. the Jets before he went out. Better team on both sides and laying a cheap price, with Oakland coming east for an early kick. Great spot for Browns to assert themselves as a contender in this division as they need to continue to bank these early W's before the schedule stiffens.
THe play: Cleveland -3.5 med 2u.
No clue on Colts.
Atlanta cannot be the favorite on the road against Dallas. The Falcons could easily be 0-2. Dallas is a 2-0 home dog. Even without the quarterback, this game won't be won by the Dallas offense. The Cowboy defense looks ferocious after two games. Their defense was much improved (DC was best in league for my money for the turnaround from 2013 to 2014) last year. Pride kicks in and people haven't adequately prepared for a Weedin-led offense yet.
The play: Dallas +105 med 2u.
Lean Ariz but wanted to lay inside of 6. I will consider it laying exactly 6 but no more.
No clue in Seattle; how can Chicago keep it within two touchdowns?
Lean Buffalo at this price but not interested in trying to beat the Fish down there in this weather. Would have to get 3 flat to consider a small play.
Lean Detroit tonight at this level but passing for now; the Leos have played two physical foes and now get a dose of the best defense in the league.
Made GB a slice higher tomorrow but would not lay more than 6; Chiefs extra rest. Gonna be a battle.
GL this week to all. I'll be around on and off to answer questions for a few hours this morning.
:shake:
A few targeted plays this week:
Back to the well with the Rammers. Obviously this was a big whiff last week but I'll go back to the well and count on another high-level home effort against a dangerous offense but sorry defense. I expect the Rams to control the clock and move the ball up and down the field.
The play: STL even money medium 2u.
At the 1-level, would only have Vikings today but no play - would like to see how much of a physical toll both teams took last week vs. Det and Cincy, respectively. Each team has beaten the Leos - not sure here. Can't get that shitfest for Minny at SF out of my head just yet.
Made Houston right at the number.
Made Jets a little higher and will consider -1 -110 or better small.
Made Carolina lower but that was with Brees. Not sure what he worth but guessing enough to keep me disinterested.
I'm making a good recommendation on Jacksonville for the second straight week. Before you discount me as being nuts, hear me out:
The Jag O-line is better than most realize. They absolutely controlled Ndamukong Suh last week, frustrating the 9-figure free agent enough to have him freelancing in the second half last week. A-gap, B-gap, it didn't matter, they were gashing the talented Miami D-line and should have their way again with New England's D-line. Clock management is key when catching big numbers, and Jag RB's aren't even getting touched until they get through the hole through two games. You can be sure that a Gus Bradley-coached defense will show similarities to the Seattle defense that Belichick prepared for last year - they don't disguise stuff and will do what they do. Zone concepts, not giving up the big play, pressure with the front four blah blah blah. Too many points.
The play: Jags +14 small to med 1.5u
I took Cincy +3 -105 very close to open at pinny last Sunday. Not sure where they got this game. If you can't get the 3, then take the ML (that is how I filled in the rest of my bet, at +120). Two teams going in opposite directions. Cincy might be the best team in the AFC; Baltimore probably won't make the playoffs. The sense-of-urgency shit is overrated - the Ravens just aren't very good. The teams already have a common opponent in the same venue. Cincy blanked the Raiders; Baltimore was life-and-death (ultimately death) despite scoring 33 out there. Wrong favorite.
The play: Cincy +3 -105 med 2u. ML +120 for another unit.
Browns very cheap at home vs. aforementioned Raiders. As much as I like Manziel, today is a good spot for McCown; they moved the ball when he was playing and were generally controlling the game vs. the Jets before he went out. Better team on both sides and laying a cheap price, with Oakland coming east for an early kick. Great spot for Browns to assert themselves as a contender in this division as they need to continue to bank these early W's before the schedule stiffens.
THe play: Cleveland -3.5 med 2u.
No clue on Colts.
Atlanta cannot be the favorite on the road against Dallas. The Falcons could easily be 0-2. Dallas is a 2-0 home dog. Even without the quarterback, this game won't be won by the Dallas offense. The Cowboy defense looks ferocious after two games. Their defense was much improved (DC was best in league for my money for the turnaround from 2013 to 2014) last year. Pride kicks in and people haven't adequately prepared for a Weedin-led offense yet.
The play: Dallas +105 med 2u.
Lean Ariz but wanted to lay inside of 6. I will consider it laying exactly 6 but no more.
No clue in Seattle; how can Chicago keep it within two touchdowns?
Lean Buffalo at this price but not interested in trying to beat the Fish down there in this weather. Would have to get 3 flat to consider a small play.
Lean Detroit tonight at this level but passing for now; the Leos have played two physical foes and now get a dose of the best defense in the league.
Made GB a slice higher tomorrow but would not lay more than 6; Chiefs extra rest. Gonna be a battle.
GL this week to all. I'll be around on and off to answer questions for a few hours this morning.
:shake:
