CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Nice 5-1 week last week, a few thoughts today.
Good spot for Bills, but not sure if they can physically handle Diego the way they did the last two teams.
Rammers a home dog to Dallas? I realize that was my big fade last week and they shoved it in my ass, but I really think the Rammers are patient enough to wait out Dallas mistakes and grind out easy points with short fields at home in this spot. The QB should have a bit more confidence following his road win as a game manager. Nothing wrong with that.
The play: STL +115 ML small to med. Would take +110 or better.
Lean to Skins I guess but at less than 7 no bet, even though they have a superior QB now and the defense seems ferocious (don't read too much into 10 sacks vs. Jagoffs)
Would seem Houston could be right but I noticed a couple of stats working against them. Most significant, I'll pilfer from Warren Sharp:
'The largest EDSR (Early Down Success Rate) advantage this week is actually the Giants over the Texans. Houston has one of the worst EDSR numbers in the league, on both sides of the ball. They have been surviving those early down problems because their offense is 4th on 3rd down conversions and their defense is 2nd. It seems like a risky move to perform terrible on 1st and 2nd down and constantly bail yourself out on 3rd down, but that is what the Texans have done en-route to 2-0.'
Pass, though don't be surprised if Gmen win... and the steam has told you they are the side, anyway.
Who knows what to make of the Vikings? And Saints 0-2 and redassed? Yikes, still a lot of points vs. a real good secondary.
Can't lay a touchdown with Cincy, although I think they are the best team in the league largely because of their ability to physically dominate most teams in the league up front on both sides.
I liked Cleveland some before all the mishaps in the Baltimore front office that got exposed this week; now I like them a lot. One of my sharpest friends is on Baltimore, which bothers me, but my Niffel is as good as anyone's right now so I can't be distracted by that.
The play: Cleveland +2 and +105, combined medium (1.2 ish units each)
Lean GB on the ML because of the best player in the league but they were mauled last year at Detroit so pass.
Lean Jags and would consider a bet at +7.5.
This one won't be popular, but the hold-your-nose-jobber of the week is the Raiders. I think McFaddon gonna get the rock a lot more and could cause pats problems. They are winning with defense but can't lay this sort of tariff when they are 25th in 1st downs, 30th in offensive EDSR, 28th in 3rd down conversions, 31st in comp percentage, 30th in yards per play and 29th in yds/pass attempt. I realize the sample size is small but could be indicative of a pattern. They are No. 1 in pass defense efficiency, so UNDER might work also and i found a spot that let me bet a parlay that I consider to be correlated. So, without further adieu...
The plays: Oakland +14 medium. UNDER 47 medium. Raiders +14/UN 47 in a 2-team parlay small to medium. How about 20-13 Pats, final?
How can Frisco be favored against Arizona? Superior team in the desert catching at home. I realize Kapernick has had all the success in the world against this team but i forsee more struggles today. The 49ers might have already missed their window to win a championship in this current cycle.
The play: Arizona +3 medium.
Sharp money for the Steelers the last couple of days. This makes me happy. Carolina has been my "ride or collide" team the first two weeks and I'll gladly hop aboard for more fun this week as they are basically saying the Steelers are as good or better after the home field. What shit are they smoking? Cam dinged up but he's played that way for the majority of his career and this defense can win 12 games with any QB who can turn and hand the ball off; that's how good they are.
The play: Carolina -3 -115 medium to big, add more if it goes to flat for some reason.
Lean Bears tomrorow but need 3 flat before I get involved.
GL today gents!
:shake:
Good spot for Bills, but not sure if they can physically handle Diego the way they did the last two teams.
Rammers a home dog to Dallas? I realize that was my big fade last week and they shoved it in my ass, but I really think the Rammers are patient enough to wait out Dallas mistakes and grind out easy points with short fields at home in this spot. The QB should have a bit more confidence following his road win as a game manager. Nothing wrong with that.
The play: STL +115 ML small to med. Would take +110 or better.
Lean to Skins I guess but at less than 7 no bet, even though they have a superior QB now and the defense seems ferocious (don't read too much into 10 sacks vs. Jagoffs)
Would seem Houston could be right but I noticed a couple of stats working against them. Most significant, I'll pilfer from Warren Sharp:
'The largest EDSR (Early Down Success Rate) advantage this week is actually the Giants over the Texans. Houston has one of the worst EDSR numbers in the league, on both sides of the ball. They have been surviving those early down problems because their offense is 4th on 3rd down conversions and their defense is 2nd. It seems like a risky move to perform terrible on 1st and 2nd down and constantly bail yourself out on 3rd down, but that is what the Texans have done en-route to 2-0.'
Pass, though don't be surprised if Gmen win... and the steam has told you they are the side, anyway.
Who knows what to make of the Vikings? And Saints 0-2 and redassed? Yikes, still a lot of points vs. a real good secondary.
Can't lay a touchdown with Cincy, although I think they are the best team in the league largely because of their ability to physically dominate most teams in the league up front on both sides.
I liked Cleveland some before all the mishaps in the Baltimore front office that got exposed this week; now I like them a lot. One of my sharpest friends is on Baltimore, which bothers me, but my Niffel is as good as anyone's right now so I can't be distracted by that.
The play: Cleveland +2 and +105, combined medium (1.2 ish units each)
Lean GB on the ML because of the best player in the league but they were mauled last year at Detroit so pass.
Lean Jags and would consider a bet at +7.5.
This one won't be popular, but the hold-your-nose-jobber of the week is the Raiders. I think McFaddon gonna get the rock a lot more and could cause pats problems. They are winning with defense but can't lay this sort of tariff when they are 25th in 1st downs, 30th in offensive EDSR, 28th in 3rd down conversions, 31st in comp percentage, 30th in yards per play and 29th in yds/pass attempt. I realize the sample size is small but could be indicative of a pattern. They are No. 1 in pass defense efficiency, so UNDER might work also and i found a spot that let me bet a parlay that I consider to be correlated. So, without further adieu...
The plays: Oakland +14 medium. UNDER 47 medium. Raiders +14/UN 47 in a 2-team parlay small to medium. How about 20-13 Pats, final?
How can Frisco be favored against Arizona? Superior team in the desert catching at home. I realize Kapernick has had all the success in the world against this team but i forsee more struggles today. The 49ers might have already missed their window to win a championship in this current cycle.
The play: Arizona +3 medium.
Sharp money for the Steelers the last couple of days. This makes me happy. Carolina has been my "ride or collide" team the first two weeks and I'll gladly hop aboard for more fun this week as they are basically saying the Steelers are as good or better after the home field. What shit are they smoking? Cam dinged up but he's played that way for the majority of his career and this defense can win 12 games with any QB who can turn and hand the ball off; that's how good they are.
The play: Carolina -3 -115 medium to big, add more if it goes to flat for some reason.
Lean Bears tomrorow but need 3 flat before I get involved.
GL today gents!
:shake:
