CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Hi folks, sorry for the late post. Rough week, with the first week of Niffel slowing things down, MNF doubleheader not allowing me to swap out with one of my guys until Tuesday mid-afternoon, US Open final tennis, World Cup qualifiers Tuesday night... just been working from behind for obvious reasons...
Anyway, I have a few plays in but will only post how to play it at current available.
Missed price on Louisville, wanted to lay inside of 13. Judging by how CRIS opened it, there will be sharp money for the dog at some point, but there are also people like me who made Louisville 19 that won't allow it to dip down. Hoping UK keeps it close early, receives etc, and that they flukily stay in the game in the first half.
Michigan -37 medium. Akron is horrid and cannot stay on the field with an average I-A team, which is what they saw in UCF. Hoke has been good since his Nadder days of stepping on the throat and not allowing backdoor boogaloos.
Indiana OVER 61 medium. Because if you bet them UNDER, ever, you should just take your shoe off and beat yourself over the head repeatedly.
Murrylund -5.5 medium to big. Unavailable for now but you can see CRIS really leaning into the dog and they've been taking the lead of keeping that game low all week. If it doesn't pop, there are still 6's widely available. Many on here agree, and since this is the best football forum on the internet, I feel pretty confident in following on a game I made a smidge higher.
Western Kentucky -6.5 medium. Going against some real sharp money here, but WKY a big step down in class. Regardless of how much better USA's win over Tulane was flattered Thursday night, I'll lay Petrino in this sort of spot every time, where he gets a week to get in their ass about not making silly mistakes; that's what he does best. Class differential here. It would be medium to 7 flat, which is worse than current avail.
Northern Illinois -28 medium, at any price higher up to 30.5, small. Sucks to lay big wood on the road but this is a premier MAC offense that should run up and down the Kibbie Dome turf at will and do whatever they want to an Idaho team that is probably fourth-worst or so in I-A football.
Mississippi State +7 medium. Just taking a price against an overrated Auburn team, from what I see. Those 7's should begin to creep back onto the screen later, so wait this one out until you see it.
Washington -9.5 medium. Boise certainly didn't help my opinion of this team with their subpar effort last night on defense, but I still am anti-Illinois, despite what I saw last week. Let's see how they fare against a real defense.
Penn State -4 medium. Not a big endorsement here but too cheap against a UCF team that steps WAY up in class.
Ball State -3 big. Not much else to say about the Nadders, who will continue to get my money until they figure out the right price. This appears to be the best MAC team to be and 10 wins should be expected at this point if the OL continues to develop. Enjoy Lembo, Muncie, this might be his last fall there.
Kansas State -38 medium. K-State still cheap because of the I-AA loss and UMass is stone hideous.
Rice -6 medium. Missed the opener here but made the game 10 and don't see how Kansas will stop the Rice offense enough to keep it close. Arroz ran for 306 against a top-10 team, at 6-plus ypc, and threw for 200 plus just for fun. Heaps, the Kansas QB, won't dent the Arroz defense like the Aggies did; he took a BYU offense that averaged 8 ypp the year before down into the mid-5s while there.
Arizona -24 medium. This UT-San Antonio can suck dick for cheating me out of my keesh last week. Won't happen this time as Rich Rod should score every time they have the ball with the first two strings on offense. JUst leave the defense out there long enough to not get backdoored, please...
Oregon State +3.5 big. I would take them +3 medium to big and if you want to dabble in the ML some, that's fine with me. Wrong team favored here. Not sure where Dr. Slob and his minions came up with this one. Utah ran for just 148 on 44 carries vs. Utah State, and while the Utes are big, they won't do much better at the point of attack against the Beavers, either.
Central Michigan would be a play at anything more than 10 and probably SHOULD be one at the current 7.5 level, but seeing that '16' up there next to CRIS's opener makes me stay off for two reasons ... one, they made it higher so it's assumed that it will go up (or they will bet it up themselves) at some point, and two, CMU is real bad. Maybe my UNLV -3.5 line is bad, who knows, because they are real bad also.
That's it fellas, GL today... if anything else moves into range, I'll post...
:shake:
:goal:
Anyway, I have a few plays in but will only post how to play it at current available.
Missed price on Louisville, wanted to lay inside of 13. Judging by how CRIS opened it, there will be sharp money for the dog at some point, but there are also people like me who made Louisville 19 that won't allow it to dip down. Hoping UK keeps it close early, receives etc, and that they flukily stay in the game in the first half.
Michigan -37 medium. Akron is horrid and cannot stay on the field with an average I-A team, which is what they saw in UCF. Hoke has been good since his Nadder days of stepping on the throat and not allowing backdoor boogaloos.
Indiana OVER 61 medium. Because if you bet them UNDER, ever, you should just take your shoe off and beat yourself over the head repeatedly.
Murrylund -5.5 medium to big. Unavailable for now but you can see CRIS really leaning into the dog and they've been taking the lead of keeping that game low all week. If it doesn't pop, there are still 6's widely available. Many on here agree, and since this is the best football forum on the internet, I feel pretty confident in following on a game I made a smidge higher.
Western Kentucky -6.5 medium. Going against some real sharp money here, but WKY a big step down in class. Regardless of how much better USA's win over Tulane was flattered Thursday night, I'll lay Petrino in this sort of spot every time, where he gets a week to get in their ass about not making silly mistakes; that's what he does best. Class differential here. It would be medium to 7 flat, which is worse than current avail.
Northern Illinois -28 medium, at any price higher up to 30.5, small. Sucks to lay big wood on the road but this is a premier MAC offense that should run up and down the Kibbie Dome turf at will and do whatever they want to an Idaho team that is probably fourth-worst or so in I-A football.
Mississippi State +7 medium. Just taking a price against an overrated Auburn team, from what I see. Those 7's should begin to creep back onto the screen later, so wait this one out until you see it.
Washington -9.5 medium. Boise certainly didn't help my opinion of this team with their subpar effort last night on defense, but I still am anti-Illinois, despite what I saw last week. Let's see how they fare against a real defense.
Penn State -4 medium. Not a big endorsement here but too cheap against a UCF team that steps WAY up in class.
Ball State -3 big. Not much else to say about the Nadders, who will continue to get my money until they figure out the right price. This appears to be the best MAC team to be and 10 wins should be expected at this point if the OL continues to develop. Enjoy Lembo, Muncie, this might be his last fall there.
Kansas State -38 medium. K-State still cheap because of the I-AA loss and UMass is stone hideous.
Rice -6 medium. Missed the opener here but made the game 10 and don't see how Kansas will stop the Rice offense enough to keep it close. Arroz ran for 306 against a top-10 team, at 6-plus ypc, and threw for 200 plus just for fun. Heaps, the Kansas QB, won't dent the Arroz defense like the Aggies did; he took a BYU offense that averaged 8 ypp the year before down into the mid-5s while there.
Arizona -24 medium. This UT-San Antonio can suck dick for cheating me out of my keesh last week. Won't happen this time as Rich Rod should score every time they have the ball with the first two strings on offense. JUst leave the defense out there long enough to not get backdoored, please...
Oregon State +3.5 big. I would take them +3 medium to big and if you want to dabble in the ML some, that's fine with me. Wrong team favored here. Not sure where Dr. Slob and his minions came up with this one. Utah ran for just 148 on 44 carries vs. Utah State, and while the Utes are big, they won't do much better at the point of attack against the Beavers, either.
Central Michigan would be a play at anything more than 10 and probably SHOULD be one at the current 7.5 level, but seeing that '16' up there next to CRIS's opener makes me stay off for two reasons ... one, they made it higher so it's assumed that it will go up (or they will bet it up themselves) at some point, and two, CMU is real bad. Maybe my UNLV -3.5 line is bad, who knows, because they are real bad also.
That's it fellas, GL today... if anything else moves into range, I'll post...
:shake:
:goal:
