Rexy's Week 3 CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Ended up 5-6 and -3.45 on sides and 10-6 and +11.9 in second half plays, so hard to bitch about a solid 8.5 unit winner.

Got Louisville tonight +6 for a medium play. I'm sticking with the Cards despite being dead wrong last week (wow, Houston QB and coach get big upgrades from me from here on out). It's a short week, which is always an edge to the home team especially in college, and Petrino will try to rally the troops as the Cards finish the toughest first-three game opening stretch in the country. He's only lost three straight once in his college coaching career and never lost four in a row.

The big concern about betting the Cards is that Watson is a mobile quarterback, and certainly more higher-touted than the Houston kid last week who broke contain and made plays right and left against the surprisingly inept Cardinal defense. Is three days enough to shore up the holes? As the schedule starts to soften, i really think U of L's defense can dominate against just about everyone else on the schedule not named Florida State after tonight.

Clempson's QB had his own problems vs U of L last year before they knocked him out and injured him in Death Valley (2-for-6, minus 5 yards with a pick). The Tigers O-line that starts tonight came into the season with a combined six starts before 2015. Not a good thing against this U of L D-line. The class differential for CU tonight will be eye-popping. Many of these young Fighting Dabos will be playing their first road game in a fairly hostile venue against a team that is significantly better than either of their first two foes.

The teams combined to go 3-33 last year on third down. U of L's offense should have more success this time around against a revamped Clempson defense, but the Cards should have the edge again on defense tonight; the Tiger have no real weapons here outside of the QB that particularly impressed me when I watched the 1H of their first two games.

I made U of L the small favorite. It was a no-brainer bet at +6 or better (see post 45 in the major line moves thread; i actually had some 6.5 and took the rest at 6 as i was hoping for 7 and it never popped of course) and isn't a bad bet at +4.5 or better.

Prediction: U of L 31, Clempson 17
The play: U of L +6 medium to big 2.5u Would bet 2u at +4.5 or better.

Back with the rest manana!

GL tonight.

:shake:
 
took the 6 earlier today as well, you seem to be holding them in rather high regard despite the first two results. I am with it, BOL!
 
seems Bolin gonna get the start at QB tonight. He was the kid who got them back in it after the freshman kid committed 4 turnovers in the first 3 qtrs last week. Had Bolin played the whole game Houston would have never stopped them, but what can you do? The way the kid played vs. Auburn he was always gonna get a chance
 
Not pretty but I'll take the win last night.

New Mexico moved the ball some and Arizona State is clearly sleepwalking, dumb penalties etc., but if Tulsa beat UNM like they did last week I have to think Arizona State will wear them down after halftime as well. The Sun Devils deferred.

The play: Arizona State -13.5 medium 2u.
 
All about the numbers, TSC... all about the numbers...

No time for writeups, sorry about that...

111 Temple I bet earlier in the week very small at -10 so it's not a play at this level (made 15.5).

115 Ball State -5 medium. It's now 4.5. If it goes any lower i might add another half unit.

131 Tusla +31 small to med 1.5u. At current 30.5 level down to 28.5 it would only be small 1u.

165 Cincinnati -19 med 2u. At the current 20 level would only be 1.5u up to 21 and from 21-22.5 it would only be 1u.

184 Texas +7 is the big play of the week 3u, at the current 6 level it's still good for 2.5u. Who is Cal to lay points on the road to anyone? Will be shocked if Texas loses quite frankly, disregard the box score anomaly last week. Charlie Strong will have his Horns ready today.

203 Brigham Young +17 medium 2u. At the current level of 16.5 it would be for just 1.5u. This one might go up. Surprising that to this point all of the games i took leads on except Ball State moved my way. I haven't been on the right side of much line movement this season in the first two weeks when taking leads.
 
Here is how i sent my buddy from back home (now a dentist in Atlanta who is out in the desert this week) the plays on Thursday afternoon, just to try to show i got my numbers.

ok sir, will try to remember to send you all plays, including 2H stuff (went 10-5 on those last week in college, usually my strength)... the first number is the rotation number on the betting board; here's what the card looks like, with units behind the play:104 U of L +6 - 2 units111 Temple -10 - 1u115 Ball State -5 - 2u131 Tulsa +31 - 1.5u165 Cincy -19 - 2u184 Texas +7 - 3u203 BYU +17 - 2uOn the Broncos tonight also; GL and say hi if you run into Abes! Enjoy and be safe...





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Thanks so much!







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and as always, will be back later when things slow down and firing in on halftime games all day.

Will also dip my toe in the I-AA games; i expect to have a few more dogs today if the lines come how i think they will on 2 or 3 games.

GL to all today!

:shake:
 
GL Rex - will look forward to your halftime thoughts. 132 looked like Walters setting up play on Oklahoma?
 
yes Walters is on Oklahoma. QT actually took Tulsa +33.5 even at post or something silly. I still like our side; the backdoor will be ajar there.

adding 118 Middle Tennessee State -17 med to big 2.5u

Walters on the dog and I've been chomping at the bit to get UNC-Charlotte. I don't see them ever stopping MTSU. Big class drop from last week for the Blue Raiders.
 
Wolford leg injury 1H for Wake, went out and then came back in and went out again. Not sure on status for 2H? But WF in trouble if backup has to play as he looks like he can only run option and can't throw worth a fuck....
 
sorry i missed... would have only had 2H UNDER, you have to figure after 800 yards of offense in one half that there would have been adjustments there. No opinion on side, i made Okie 16

P - I had the stone wrong side but not because of the QB. Kent State continually got pressure rushing four and sometimes only THREE. I was way wrong there. Bad bad bet.
 
Nice hit on the UNC 2nd half total. Had the Tarheels but was pullin for you to get the number (long time lurker, rare poster).
 
sorry i missed... would have only had 2H UNDER, you have to figure after 800 yards of offense in one half that there would have been adjustments there. No opinion on side, i made Okie 16

P - I had the stone wrong side but not because of the QB. Kent State continually got pressure rushing four and sometimes only THREE. I was way wrong there. Bad bad bet.

I'm in protest of attending games until they get Leidner off the field. Our defense is really good but it's frustrating to watch this offense continually fuck it up. OL hasn't helped either.
 
Hey P-Unit, thanks for the Firelake Grill tip in Minneapolis - it was great, amazing! Went to Huberts before the baseball game - awesome as well!
 
Rex: would you have played Tex Tech at +4 ? could not pull the trigger at a worse line than what you had? Thanks
 
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