CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Good luck this week, should be some fun games.
Back with the AFC writeup in a bit; NFC game follows...
Accurate, strong arm, smart, and mobile.
Those words describe the quarterback of each of the two teams I'm betting this weekend.
Of course, the mobility of a certain No. 12 in the NFC Championship game can certainly come into question, but I still like getting two scores with what I believe is still the best player in the league.
Green Bay's ultimate keys to winning the game will be on the ground - on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the way to negate Seattle's speed is pounding it, which will help to create throwing lanes. There's no number I have in mind, but something between 120-130 yards between Eddie Lacy and James Starks would go a long way toward making life easier for quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
On the other side, selling out to stop the run and maintaining gap discipline on passes against Seattle's Russell Wilson is likely the easiest route. Slow running back Marshawn Lynch and don't allow Wilson to scramble for first downs, and you should have enough offense to be winning going into the fourth quarter.
Now let's break down why I think both of these things are not only possible, but will happen.
You don't have to search very hard or far to find all of the great press clippings regarding the Seattle defense. Since Bobby Wagner returned to the lineup in Week 12, the Seahawks have allowed an average of precisely eight points per game. Yet going back even further, the Seahawks also greatly benefited from a schedule that has seen them face mediocre offense after mediocre offense since mid-October.
The last time Seattle's defense had to battle an offense that ranks in the top-10 in yards per play on offense was in Week 6, a 30-23 home loss to Dallas. Since then, here is a list of starting quarterbacks Seattle has faced:
Austin Davis (Rams, a career backup)
Cam Newton (Car, twice)
Derek Carr (Oak, a rookie)
Eli Manning (Giants, right in the middle of a seven game losing streak)
Alex Smith (KC, who handed Seattle its last loss)
Drew Stanton (Ari, a career backup)
Colin Kaepernick (49ers, who has regressed greatly in the last two years, twice)
Mark Sanchez (Philly, a backup)
Ryan Lindley (Ari, a waiver-wire pickup)
Shaun Hill (Rams, another career backup).
As you can see, this will be a different animal. Of the last eight games for the Seattle defense, only Philly has an offense that was in the top half of the league.
Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy has been on a roll since Week 12. He's ran for (in order) 125, 98, 73, 97, 99, 100 and 101 in the last seven games.
Seattle will be without two key defensive linemen. Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill missed last week and their absences helped the Panthers run for 132 yards. Seattle had held opponents under 65 rushing yards in five of its last six games before these injuries; Hill is out for the season and the Seahawks are now down 5 D-linemen (IR) and a sixth, Tony McDaniel, is listed as questionable. Green Bay should be trying to hit the A and B-gaps hard early.
In the first game of the season, Green Bay largely ignored the side of the field patrolled by cover corner Richard Sherman, sending overmatched Jarrett Boykin to occupy him and create matchup edges on the other half of the field. With a defense as fast as Seattle's, cutting the field in half is not such a good idea, so you can expect the Packers to look for different matchups to exploit this time. Two-receiver combo routes (slot receiver on a wheel, anyone?) could work, and Green Bay is very good on offense at locating its personnel and using varying formations to create mismatches. Randall Cobb has been coming out of the backfield plenty as of late to get matched up against a linebacker or a corner stuck out of position. Look for plenty of isolation routes designed to widen the defense and create clear passing lanes for Rodgers.
Seattle's biggest weakness is generating a pass rush and a lack of pressure could doom the Seahawks.
Rodgers led Green Bay on three long scoring drives last week, including 90-yard and 80-yard touchdowns, to cement the win. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is borderline absurd and he'll need to eliminate mistakes against the opportunistic Seattle defense for Green Bay to have its best chance.
While Seattle did score a 36-16 win in Week 1, it's important to see how they did it, gashing the Packers for almost six yards per carry while going over 200 yards. But a key component of that offense is missing, as Percy Harvin plies his trade for the New York Jets now. Harvin's misdirections and jet sweeps aren't a factor here, and that can't be overlooked. Seattle no longer tries to deceive anyone; they line up, run it, and let Wilson make plays with his legs.
But the Packers have guys who can take that away. They're a good slot-blitzing defense, athletic inside and can play man coverage across the board. This gives defensive coordinator Dom Capers many options when trying to dial up the perfect calls. Clay Matthews is the ideal spy now that he's been playing inside backer since midseason. In Week 1, Matthews was a rusher from the outside trying to get into the backfield, meaning they couldn't use him as a spy in that role.
He's got the athleticism to keep up with Wilson. If Julius Peppers can cause the same havoc he did last week against Dallas and Nick Perry can keep being Nick Perry, Matthews can focus on stopping the run first and spying Wilson when Seattle decides to pass. That said, Green Bay would be wise to switch up the spy to make things more difficult for Seattle's pass protections. It's easy for the Seattle O-line to base its protections around Matthews and identify blitzes easier if they know he's always the spy.
Seattle doesn't have many offensive weapons to begin with after Lynch and Wilson. Tight end Luke Willson has emerged as a viable downfield threat and Jermaine Kearse had a decent game last week. But speed threat Paul Richardson tore up his knee last week and is finished for the season. There aren't many big play threats at all.
Therefore, I expect Capers to come with edge blitzes for two reasons. He should be able to trust his corners in man coverage on the outside, and edge blitzes are a great way to attack a read-option rushing attack. Capers can bring pressure early against the inside zone and not limit it to just passing situations. The elite Dallas offense had just 315 yards last week, signaling a continued improvement in the Green Bay defense.
Turnovers ruined the Panthers last week. They had thrown a pick and lost a fumble, yet were driving to make it a one-score game until a 14-point swing came when Kam Chancellor squatted on a route and went 90 yards the other way to seal the Seattle win. That pick-6, a 63-yard pass and a short field after a fumble were three touchdowns by Seattle. Its offense really only had one drive down the field against Carolina's defense. That seems a tough way to keep trying to win, let alone cover big numbers, against higher-level teams.
Even with the Week 1 Seattle win, Green Bay is still 7-2-1 in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. The underdog is 9-7 outright in the last 16 NFC Championships and the road team has advanced to the Super Bowl in three of the last four seasons.
I'll call for those trends to continue again and the Packers to pull the outright upset. Green Bay wins it, 27-23, and advances to Glendale. Will be a combined big play for 3 units for me. Two at +7.5 -115 and one more at +275 on the moneyline.
Back in a bit for the AFC thoughts...
GL!
:shake:
Back with the AFC writeup in a bit; NFC game follows...
Accurate, strong arm, smart, and mobile.
Those words describe the quarterback of each of the two teams I'm betting this weekend.
Of course, the mobility of a certain No. 12 in the NFC Championship game can certainly come into question, but I still like getting two scores with what I believe is still the best player in the league.
Green Bay's ultimate keys to winning the game will be on the ground - on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the way to negate Seattle's speed is pounding it, which will help to create throwing lanes. There's no number I have in mind, but something between 120-130 yards between Eddie Lacy and James Starks would go a long way toward making life easier for quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
On the other side, selling out to stop the run and maintaining gap discipline on passes against Seattle's Russell Wilson is likely the easiest route. Slow running back Marshawn Lynch and don't allow Wilson to scramble for first downs, and you should have enough offense to be winning going into the fourth quarter.
Now let's break down why I think both of these things are not only possible, but will happen.
You don't have to search very hard or far to find all of the great press clippings regarding the Seattle defense. Since Bobby Wagner returned to the lineup in Week 12, the Seahawks have allowed an average of precisely eight points per game. Yet going back even further, the Seahawks also greatly benefited from a schedule that has seen them face mediocre offense after mediocre offense since mid-October.
The last time Seattle's defense had to battle an offense that ranks in the top-10 in yards per play on offense was in Week 6, a 30-23 home loss to Dallas. Since then, here is a list of starting quarterbacks Seattle has faced:
Austin Davis (Rams, a career backup)
Cam Newton (Car, twice)
Derek Carr (Oak, a rookie)
Eli Manning (Giants, right in the middle of a seven game losing streak)
Alex Smith (KC, who handed Seattle its last loss)
Drew Stanton (Ari, a career backup)
Colin Kaepernick (49ers, who has regressed greatly in the last two years, twice)
Mark Sanchez (Philly, a backup)
Ryan Lindley (Ari, a waiver-wire pickup)
Shaun Hill (Rams, another career backup).
As you can see, this will be a different animal. Of the last eight games for the Seattle defense, only Philly has an offense that was in the top half of the league.
Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy has been on a roll since Week 12. He's ran for (in order) 125, 98, 73, 97, 99, 100 and 101 in the last seven games.
Seattle will be without two key defensive linemen. Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill missed last week and their absences helped the Panthers run for 132 yards. Seattle had held opponents under 65 rushing yards in five of its last six games before these injuries; Hill is out for the season and the Seahawks are now down 5 D-linemen (IR) and a sixth, Tony McDaniel, is listed as questionable. Green Bay should be trying to hit the A and B-gaps hard early.
In the first game of the season, Green Bay largely ignored the side of the field patrolled by cover corner Richard Sherman, sending overmatched Jarrett Boykin to occupy him and create matchup edges on the other half of the field. With a defense as fast as Seattle's, cutting the field in half is not such a good idea, so you can expect the Packers to look for different matchups to exploit this time. Two-receiver combo routes (slot receiver on a wheel, anyone?) could work, and Green Bay is very good on offense at locating its personnel and using varying formations to create mismatches. Randall Cobb has been coming out of the backfield plenty as of late to get matched up against a linebacker or a corner stuck out of position. Look for plenty of isolation routes designed to widen the defense and create clear passing lanes for Rodgers.
Seattle's biggest weakness is generating a pass rush and a lack of pressure could doom the Seahawks.
Rodgers led Green Bay on three long scoring drives last week, including 90-yard and 80-yard touchdowns, to cement the win. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is borderline absurd and he'll need to eliminate mistakes against the opportunistic Seattle defense for Green Bay to have its best chance.
While Seattle did score a 36-16 win in Week 1, it's important to see how they did it, gashing the Packers for almost six yards per carry while going over 200 yards. But a key component of that offense is missing, as Percy Harvin plies his trade for the New York Jets now. Harvin's misdirections and jet sweeps aren't a factor here, and that can't be overlooked. Seattle no longer tries to deceive anyone; they line up, run it, and let Wilson make plays with his legs.
But the Packers have guys who can take that away. They're a good slot-blitzing defense, athletic inside and can play man coverage across the board. This gives defensive coordinator Dom Capers many options when trying to dial up the perfect calls. Clay Matthews is the ideal spy now that he's been playing inside backer since midseason. In Week 1, Matthews was a rusher from the outside trying to get into the backfield, meaning they couldn't use him as a spy in that role.
He's got the athleticism to keep up with Wilson. If Julius Peppers can cause the same havoc he did last week against Dallas and Nick Perry can keep being Nick Perry, Matthews can focus on stopping the run first and spying Wilson when Seattle decides to pass. That said, Green Bay would be wise to switch up the spy to make things more difficult for Seattle's pass protections. It's easy for the Seattle O-line to base its protections around Matthews and identify blitzes easier if they know he's always the spy.
Seattle doesn't have many offensive weapons to begin with after Lynch and Wilson. Tight end Luke Willson has emerged as a viable downfield threat and Jermaine Kearse had a decent game last week. But speed threat Paul Richardson tore up his knee last week and is finished for the season. There aren't many big play threats at all.
Therefore, I expect Capers to come with edge blitzes for two reasons. He should be able to trust his corners in man coverage on the outside, and edge blitzes are a great way to attack a read-option rushing attack. Capers can bring pressure early against the inside zone and not limit it to just passing situations. The elite Dallas offense had just 315 yards last week, signaling a continued improvement in the Green Bay defense.
Turnovers ruined the Panthers last week. They had thrown a pick and lost a fumble, yet were driving to make it a one-score game until a 14-point swing came when Kam Chancellor squatted on a route and went 90 yards the other way to seal the Seattle win. That pick-6, a 63-yard pass and a short field after a fumble were three touchdowns by Seattle. Its offense really only had one drive down the field against Carolina's defense. That seems a tough way to keep trying to win, let alone cover big numbers, against higher-level teams.
Even with the Week 1 Seattle win, Green Bay is still 7-2-1 in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. The underdog is 9-7 outright in the last 16 NFC Championships and the road team has advanced to the Super Bowl in three of the last four seasons.
I'll call for those trends to continue again and the Packers to pull the outright upset. Green Bay wins it, 27-23, and advances to Glendale. Will be a combined big play for 3 units for me. Two at +7.5 -115 and one more at +275 on the moneyline.
Back in a bit for the AFC thoughts...
GL!
:shake:
