CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Not a bad week last week, although was very fortunate to win the Sunday game, as Marshall was the wrong side. Moving on, let's see if I can win for the third week in a row to kick off the season, counting the I-AA game from back in August.
Made Miami a bit higher on Friday, but couldn't consider laying anything more than 16. Made Utah a little bit lower. Could be USU is that bad, but I'm saying week 1 overreaction is quite likely. I'm not sold on Mishitgan and Utah was life and death against them at times last week. I will consider the dog if a 14 pops.
Florida State -28 is a play. The Noles did business-like work last week against Texas State, proving that last year's shavers have likely departed. They had 635 yards last week and 302 of them were from Golson. Bulls playing an up-tempo offense and put up 51 last week against I-AA Florida A&M, but the water is significantly deeper against the other college football team in Tallahassee. Taggart is a great road dog (17-3 dating to his days at Western) and the Bulls are certainly improved over last year's version, but the Noles are cheap here. The Bulls trying to go faster on offense in this game is like trying to get into a pissin' contest with a skunk.
Prediction: Florida State 55, South Florida 19
The play: FSU -28 medium
Would consider WMU if the game goes to 4 or below as I made a smidge higher, but not real interested.
Made Penn State much higher but anyone interested in laying three touchdowns with that offense at this point need to have their head checked, and Barfalo had a slow start with the new coach last week but a strong finish and got the money. A repeat effort likes gets it again in this spot and I might have a bad number on them.
Missed the boat on UConn. Made the game higher, but refuse to lay more than a touchdown with that offense. Same rules apply as from the previous game.
I made Florida 17, which is higher than the 13 BOL opened and 14 that the Wynn came up with. Obviously the early movers are high on Florida and after last week, it's easy to get excited about a team with a defense like Florida's if they start scoring 60 points against overmatched non-league foes. Pass.
People will figure out that Louisville is gonna be pretty good and pretty quickly. Last week's baptism by fire was a game that they probably should have won. The 14-point swing late in the second quarter just proved too much to overcome. Line has already shot up to the vicinity of where it's supposed to be. I wasn't too impressed with Houston last week and don't really know how they are going to score against this defense, which acquitted itself well aside from a couple of drives in Atlanta (oh, and the gotdamn 3rd down conversions. Jesus, the 3rd down conversions). UH has been a good road team (10 covers last 11) and that keeps me from making this a big play.
Prediction: U of L 34, Houston 13
The play: U of L -12.5 medium to big. Would lay 13 for the same, which is widely available.
Not sure where BOL came up with their opener on the Fresno/Piss game, and the Wynn's 24 wasn't much better. I made that game 32 and it's been pounded into place.
Dicey spot for Temple after the aroused Owls held Penn State to just nine first downs and physically dominated last week. Defense travels so even if the offense sputters somewhat, expect the tenacious Owl defense to keep Gunner Kiel and the Bearcat offense in check; it's the best defense he'll see this season. Triple-revenger for Temple should guarantee another fine effort. The Owls aren't great on offense, but against a Cincy defense that returns just five starters from a unit that gave up 439 ypg and 27 ppg last fall, they should fare better than the six point turd they laid in the Philly cold last November. Rhule is 10-2 ATS when getting more than seven so some upward movement in the line would get me involved on the dog. No play at current level. Will advise if I go small at +7 and will definitely be on small to med at +7.5. The total being in the mid-50s for a Temple game is mind-blowing to me.
Prediction: Cincy 20, Temple 19
The plays: UNDER 55 medium and you see the above regarding the side.
Defense travels, but so does talent, and LSU has plenty of it. The opener here by BOL and later by CRIS at 2 was just wrong and would have warranted a play if i could have gotten down enough (well, being around and not poolside hanging out with Colombians would have helped also). I made LSU 8.5 even with the HFA attached. The Tigers not playing last week concerns me but if you check the misleading scores by Gyno you would see Kyle or someone posting about how USM basically played Messy State from what he gathered. Maybe I overreacted but then I see the movement, and I prolly didn't. Won't lay 4.5 and 5.
Made Wiskydicks 37, not interested. That was a game where they were fucking around with the total earlier. Something amiss for sure.
Was impressed with UTSA in the opener and not so much so with K-State. Still, made this game higher. Easy watch-and-pass for proper adjustments.
Made We Are Marshall 9. That is with a tremendous adjustment down (9 points, which is unpredecented for me) after the first game. Obviously, everyone else knocked them down a peg or two, as well. They should be able to march up and down the field vs. OU and maybe Purdue is better than I imagined. Would think they are surely better than OU even if the coach is semi-lost. Pass for now, and if it moves up from 3 i am going to thank the Good Lord I was able to cash once on a mistake and pass. If It goes down, I will be on the Blundering Turd on principle, just as i should be now.
The Hawaii/OSU line was an insult to me - until I did the work. Thought 35.5 or more was too high, until I made it 46 after the HFA. Whoops. Pass.
Think Cuse -6 or so is right, even without Hunt. Meh, pass.
Made Clempson 20 and really don't know.
Mizzou 12, pass.
Wyoming should be lower but who gets excited about betting EMUs, ever, at this point?
Culo should be a smidge higher but not sure what altitude is worth there. Pass.
Minny I made 6.5; pass.
Mishitgan i am considering dog there small at +17; made 14. Pass for now. If goes up, i'll chime.
i made GT higher but not sure whether i had a bad rating on Tulane; Duke was right last week but abit of luck (that I also handicapped, check my thread) was involved. Pass for now.
Georgia is less than 3 touchdowns against Vandy? lmao, sign me up. Someone from Vandy even had the nads to tell the media that they'd rather have their RB than Chubb. Good luck with that this week. Shocked at the opener. Vandy is an absolute disaster; they face a totally different offense this week after gearing up for Western all summer. They will be absolutely lucky to score; considering how BAD WKU's defense was against a C-USA slate last year, how can they be expected to generate any offense against the hungry Dawgs?
Prediction: UGA 38, Vandy 6
The play: Jorja -20 medium
I made BYU just a slight favorite, but i like both teams and am not sure of either rating. Pass and cannot wait to watch.
Made ND a bit cheaper in Charlottesville but not enoguh to bet, at least not at this level. I find it curious that the M shows an 11 on the screen, while many places down here have 13. If 14 pops, i'll be back in here after i take the dog.
Iowa game will be fun to watch; no interest in betting. Both sides vastly overshot my week 1 projections. Could be a nice surprise coming out of this one in Ames at 2-0.
Made Cal cheaper vs. SD St but not interested in getting involved; Aztecs have some secondary injuries and the timing for that couldn't be worse as this will be the best passing team they see in years.
Memphis State way too cheap at Kansas. I admire the Jayhawks for fighting back last week against a I-AA that a few friends have told me have playoff aspirations. Still, this line should be higher. BOL, Wynn, CRIS all opened low and ithas been bet up a bit; i expect it to continue to rise. If I can find -12.5 or better, I'm in. I won't lay a bad price on principle.
Would like Toledo at +21.5 or better; alas, it's not there. Made the game a couple of field goals cheaper; not sure what to give Arky in Lil Rock, but the Dildos seemed to get things going after the delay last week. Having Hunt out for another wek (MAC's best RB) makes it easy for me to take this game off my radar altogether.
Made Bama 38.5, no fuckin clue.
Air Force a smidge cheaper but again, no idea.
Pitt I thought 14 or so about right without the RB. Pass.
Made Murrylund a bit higher but tough to lay big numbers against a Beegees offense that wants to run 100 plays and can backdoor you for fun (although they ran out of steam last week)
Made Arizona a bit lower but not interested in either side after unflattering performances a week ago. Watching this one.
Made Sakerlina a bit higher. OBC with revenge and UK really didn't do much to impress me inthe last 40 mins last week, from what i watched. Lay for sure; i got a peanut at -7 -115, and will go for tomorrow - as well as offer a prediction!
Made SMU 9 vs. NT after big adjustment up for SMU. Pass until i see SMU play someone in their weight class.
Lean Nads at this level and will consider a take if it hits 31 at Ayyunem. Lembo has proven he can trade with the heavyweights since he got to Muncie. I'll advise on a play later if I go.
Made TT a smidge higher, no clue.
Made Buttgers 6 but not interested in laying with them in a revenge spot for other team.
UT -1 i made. Zero clue. Will watch,would not bet with your money.
Texas almost on the number. New OC this week, no thanks.
Not interested in a Ga St game for awhile after my brick on them last week.
Corn made on current number; pass.
Made Mish St 2 and would only have them gun to head despite my number being lower than market. Good spotand they should have covered last year in Eugene.
Made IU on number, no clue, i got FIU wrong last week and thought my price would steer me to dog even after last week's adjustments (both teams 15 pts off from spread or more in diff directions)
USC no clue.
made UNM right on number but i love their coach and other team i could never have. UNM gun to head would be a good survivor pick i think. But I'm not laying anything with them. Pass.
Made Stanford a bit higher after a monsterous deduction for UCF. Pass and watch.
Made UCLA a bit higher in Vegas but who wants to lay that. UNLV also got the money last week and i correctly sat it out. Will do so again for better or worse.
GL this week!
Welcome any thoughts and/or input.
Cheers... :cheers:
Made Miami a bit higher on Friday, but couldn't consider laying anything more than 16. Made Utah a little bit lower. Could be USU is that bad, but I'm saying week 1 overreaction is quite likely. I'm not sold on Mishitgan and Utah was life and death against them at times last week. I will consider the dog if a 14 pops.
Florida State -28 is a play. The Noles did business-like work last week against Texas State, proving that last year's shavers have likely departed. They had 635 yards last week and 302 of them were from Golson. Bulls playing an up-tempo offense and put up 51 last week against I-AA Florida A&M, but the water is significantly deeper against the other college football team in Tallahassee. Taggart is a great road dog (17-3 dating to his days at Western) and the Bulls are certainly improved over last year's version, but the Noles are cheap here. The Bulls trying to go faster on offense in this game is like trying to get into a pissin' contest with a skunk.
Prediction: Florida State 55, South Florida 19
The play: FSU -28 medium
Would consider WMU if the game goes to 4 or below as I made a smidge higher, but not real interested.
Made Penn State much higher but anyone interested in laying three touchdowns with that offense at this point need to have their head checked, and Barfalo had a slow start with the new coach last week but a strong finish and got the money. A repeat effort likes gets it again in this spot and I might have a bad number on them.
Missed the boat on UConn. Made the game higher, but refuse to lay more than a touchdown with that offense. Same rules apply as from the previous game.
I made Florida 17, which is higher than the 13 BOL opened and 14 that the Wynn came up with. Obviously the early movers are high on Florida and after last week, it's easy to get excited about a team with a defense like Florida's if they start scoring 60 points against overmatched non-league foes. Pass.
People will figure out that Louisville is gonna be pretty good and pretty quickly. Last week's baptism by fire was a game that they probably should have won. The 14-point swing late in the second quarter just proved too much to overcome. Line has already shot up to the vicinity of where it's supposed to be. I wasn't too impressed with Houston last week and don't really know how they are going to score against this defense, which acquitted itself well aside from a couple of drives in Atlanta (oh, and the gotdamn 3rd down conversions. Jesus, the 3rd down conversions). UH has been a good road team (10 covers last 11) and that keeps me from making this a big play.
Prediction: U of L 34, Houston 13
The play: U of L -12.5 medium to big. Would lay 13 for the same, which is widely available.
Not sure where BOL came up with their opener on the Fresno/Piss game, and the Wynn's 24 wasn't much better. I made that game 32 and it's been pounded into place.
Dicey spot for Temple after the aroused Owls held Penn State to just nine first downs and physically dominated last week. Defense travels so even if the offense sputters somewhat, expect the tenacious Owl defense to keep Gunner Kiel and the Bearcat offense in check; it's the best defense he'll see this season. Triple-revenger for Temple should guarantee another fine effort. The Owls aren't great on offense, but against a Cincy defense that returns just five starters from a unit that gave up 439 ypg and 27 ppg last fall, they should fare better than the six point turd they laid in the Philly cold last November. Rhule is 10-2 ATS when getting more than seven so some upward movement in the line would get me involved on the dog. No play at current level. Will advise if I go small at +7 and will definitely be on small to med at +7.5. The total being in the mid-50s for a Temple game is mind-blowing to me.
Prediction: Cincy 20, Temple 19
The plays: UNDER 55 medium and you see the above regarding the side.
Defense travels, but so does talent, and LSU has plenty of it. The opener here by BOL and later by CRIS at 2 was just wrong and would have warranted a play if i could have gotten down enough (well, being around and not poolside hanging out with Colombians would have helped also). I made LSU 8.5 even with the HFA attached. The Tigers not playing last week concerns me but if you check the misleading scores by Gyno you would see Kyle or someone posting about how USM basically played Messy State from what he gathered. Maybe I overreacted but then I see the movement, and I prolly didn't. Won't lay 4.5 and 5.
Made Wiskydicks 37, not interested. That was a game where they were fucking around with the total earlier. Something amiss for sure.
Was impressed with UTSA in the opener and not so much so with K-State. Still, made this game higher. Easy watch-and-pass for proper adjustments.
Made We Are Marshall 9. That is with a tremendous adjustment down (9 points, which is unpredecented for me) after the first game. Obviously, everyone else knocked them down a peg or two, as well. They should be able to march up and down the field vs. OU and maybe Purdue is better than I imagined. Would think they are surely better than OU even if the coach is semi-lost. Pass for now, and if it moves up from 3 i am going to thank the Good Lord I was able to cash once on a mistake and pass. If It goes down, I will be on the Blundering Turd on principle, just as i should be now.
The Hawaii/OSU line was an insult to me - until I did the work. Thought 35.5 or more was too high, until I made it 46 after the HFA. Whoops. Pass.
Think Cuse -6 or so is right, even without Hunt. Meh, pass.
Made Clempson 20 and really don't know.
Mizzou 12, pass.
Wyoming should be lower but who gets excited about betting EMUs, ever, at this point?
Culo should be a smidge higher but not sure what altitude is worth there. Pass.
Minny I made 6.5; pass.
Mishitgan i am considering dog there small at +17; made 14. Pass for now. If goes up, i'll chime.
i made GT higher but not sure whether i had a bad rating on Tulane; Duke was right last week but abit of luck (that I also handicapped, check my thread) was involved. Pass for now.
Georgia is less than 3 touchdowns against Vandy? lmao, sign me up. Someone from Vandy even had the nads to tell the media that they'd rather have their RB than Chubb. Good luck with that this week. Shocked at the opener. Vandy is an absolute disaster; they face a totally different offense this week after gearing up for Western all summer. They will be absolutely lucky to score; considering how BAD WKU's defense was against a C-USA slate last year, how can they be expected to generate any offense against the hungry Dawgs?
Prediction: UGA 38, Vandy 6
The play: Jorja -20 medium
I made BYU just a slight favorite, but i like both teams and am not sure of either rating. Pass and cannot wait to watch.
Made ND a bit cheaper in Charlottesville but not enoguh to bet, at least not at this level. I find it curious that the M shows an 11 on the screen, while many places down here have 13. If 14 pops, i'll be back in here after i take the dog.
Iowa game will be fun to watch; no interest in betting. Both sides vastly overshot my week 1 projections. Could be a nice surprise coming out of this one in Ames at 2-0.
Made Cal cheaper vs. SD St but not interested in getting involved; Aztecs have some secondary injuries and the timing for that couldn't be worse as this will be the best passing team they see in years.
Memphis State way too cheap at Kansas. I admire the Jayhawks for fighting back last week against a I-AA that a few friends have told me have playoff aspirations. Still, this line should be higher. BOL, Wynn, CRIS all opened low and ithas been bet up a bit; i expect it to continue to rise. If I can find -12.5 or better, I'm in. I won't lay a bad price on principle.
Would like Toledo at +21.5 or better; alas, it's not there. Made the game a couple of field goals cheaper; not sure what to give Arky in Lil Rock, but the Dildos seemed to get things going after the delay last week. Having Hunt out for another wek (MAC's best RB) makes it easy for me to take this game off my radar altogether.
Made Bama 38.5, no fuckin clue.
Air Force a smidge cheaper but again, no idea.
Pitt I thought 14 or so about right without the RB. Pass.
Made Murrylund a bit higher but tough to lay big numbers against a Beegees offense that wants to run 100 plays and can backdoor you for fun (although they ran out of steam last week)
Made Arizona a bit lower but not interested in either side after unflattering performances a week ago. Watching this one.
Made Sakerlina a bit higher. OBC with revenge and UK really didn't do much to impress me inthe last 40 mins last week, from what i watched. Lay for sure; i got a peanut at -7 -115, and will go for tomorrow - as well as offer a prediction!
Made SMU 9 vs. NT after big adjustment up for SMU. Pass until i see SMU play someone in their weight class.
Lean Nads at this level and will consider a take if it hits 31 at Ayyunem. Lembo has proven he can trade with the heavyweights since he got to Muncie. I'll advise on a play later if I go.
Made TT a smidge higher, no clue.
Made Buttgers 6 but not interested in laying with them in a revenge spot for other team.
UT -1 i made. Zero clue. Will watch,would not bet with your money.
Texas almost on the number. New OC this week, no thanks.
Not interested in a Ga St game for awhile after my brick on them last week.
Corn made on current number; pass.
Made Mish St 2 and would only have them gun to head despite my number being lower than market. Good spotand they should have covered last year in Eugene.
Made IU on number, no clue, i got FIU wrong last week and thought my price would steer me to dog even after last week's adjustments (both teams 15 pts off from spread or more in diff directions)
USC no clue.
made UNM right on number but i love their coach and other team i could never have. UNM gun to head would be a good survivor pick i think. But I'm not laying anything with them. Pass.
Made Stanford a bit higher after a monsterous deduction for UCF. Pass and watch.
Made UCLA a bit higher in Vegas but who wants to lay that. UNLV also got the money last week and i correctly sat it out. Will do so again for better or worse.
GL this week!
Welcome any thoughts and/or input.
Cheers... :cheers:
