Two more wildcard games will begin within a couple of hours and that will whittle the NFL's playoffs down to eight teams, setting up quarterfinal matchups in the Divisional round next weekend. Two different games involve four teams with everything to play for, albeit for different reasons.
Cincinnati tries to end a 24-year old drought without a playoff victory when the Bengals go up Interstate 74 to visit Indianapolis in the first game, while Dallas QB Tony Romo tries to exorcise his own playoff demons when the Cowboys host Detroit in the late game. Detroit, in its own right, hasn't won a playoff game since the Wayne Fontes/Barry Sanders days (1991).
Cincinnati was blanked in the first meeting at Indy this season, meekly going down 27-0 in a game where the Bengals had only eight first downs and went 3-and-out an unbelievable EIGHT times in a row at one point. The Colts outgained them 506-135 that day, so certainly don't expect that again. Some of you might remember my Indianapolis investment that day.
In that game, rookie running back Jeremy Hill had four carries for 15 yards. In the second half of the season, the second-round draft choice out of LSU has been the most productive back in the league, even moreso than Dallas's DeMarco Murray or Pittsburgh's Leveon Bell. He has averaged 103 yards per game in the last nine outings for Cincy. The Colts were routinely exposed on the ground. New England's Jonas Gray had 201 yards in this building. Houston's Arian Foster had 208 yards in two outings against Indy, and Philly's LeSean McCoy had 79 yards rushing in addition to Darren Sproles getting 152 through the air. Standout wide receiver A.J. Green missed the first meeting with a sore toe, and he'll miss today after not clearing the NFL's concussion protocol.
The Indianapolis offensive line is banged up; this game will mark its 11th different starting five this season. Yet the Bengals ranked dead last in sacks (20) this season. The Bengals will need to get some pressure on Indy quarterback Andrew Luck to stay competitive. Right now, the betting public doesn't see it happening. They're squarely opposed to the sharp movement this morning. Bookmakers have donned their Bengal gear, as this will be the biggest sweat of the weekend. I have no play here, as I was leaning Cincy at +4 but not enough to go, then I missed the number as Phil Ivey and Walters bet on the dog. I'll be watching for live chances and a 2H shot.
Cincy coach Marvin Lewis is 0-5 in playoff games, including losses in each of the last three years in their first game. Andy Dalton has been his quarterback for each of those contests, so he'll be facing his own demons today as well. The Bengals have had one takeaway and 13 giveaways in the five playoff losses under Lewis. Turnovers are largely random, so Lewis has been unlucky in these spots in the past. Fairly or unfairly, these games are where coaches are judged to be good, great, or overmatched. Another loss today could cost him his job.
Detroit's rush defense is the best in the league, giving up less than 69 yards a game. This directly contrasts with the Cowboys, who have built the league's best offensive line and have tried to impose their will on teams all season by establishing the run to set up the pass. Murray has ran for 1,875 yards this year, and was going over 100 yards in every game the first two months of the season before the Cowboys started to mix things up a bit more in the second half of the season.
Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli took over 2013's worst defense this season and has done a remarkable job, simplifying schemes and counting on his players to not be extraordinary but rather to execute the rudimentary tasks he expects. The offense keeping time of possession a good part of the year and keeping them off the field hasn't hurt. You can bet this game is a special one for Marinelli. He was the head coach of the Lions for three seasons, including the 2008 debacle when Detroit finished 0-16. That was the only team in league history to lose 16 times.
Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford will have to overcome his own demons today. He's 0-16 as a starter in his career against teams with records above .500. Counterpart Tony Romo posted a career-best 114.4 quarterback rating off of back surgery in the off-season and seems content to let Murray try to win games, throwing to standout wide receiver Dez Bryant (16 touchdown catches) to keep foes honest.
Dallas is a popular public side in this game, and it seems the sharp money is on Detroit based on the early movement Sunday. The Cowboys are roughly a six-point favorite. I lean Detroit, but would have only gotten involved at plus-7 flat or better, and the investment would have been small. So another "El Paso" for me.
Both games are getting bet to the OVER. I don't have a strong lean in Dallas, but will take a stab at it in Indy. Last year all the sharp money came for UNDER in the Colts home game (just as it did for this one) and we all remember the Colts coming from forever behind in a game that flew over against the Chiefies. Cincy got blanked the first time; I expect them to have a better offensive gameplan this time, and don't see the defense stopping Luck.
So, one play for me.
Cincy/Colts OVER 47 small to medium 1.5 units.
GL! enjoy
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