Rexy's Week 17 Niffel...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Plays at the bottom. Figured I'd chat you my opinions with a buddy earlier. I am "DADD"... the 'shay' is a pool I am in picking all games against the spread (lines locked in already, won't move). Decent buy in and I'm up by a pretty good margin going into this week. A good week there will all but put me dormie (all 11 playoff games count as well).

[8:37:53 AM] DADD...: wonder when they gonna put up Colts
[8:37:57 AM] DADD...: not like it matters who is QB
[8:38:04 AM] DADD...: you have to rate them all the same, no?
[8:38:21 AM] DADD...: Steelers flu bug
[8:39:21 AM] DADD...: rumor has it Browns coach has already been fired as soon as game today goes final
[8:39:33 AM] DADD...: and the people in the clubhouse know it
[8:39:43 AM] DADD...: so who knows what you get in that fuckin game
[8:40:24 AM] DADD...: Amendola, McCourty, Chung and Ninkovich will be active for NE

[8:56:38 AM] DADD...: tenny is the pits
[8:56:55 AM] DADD...: at least indy still trying and defense played as good as it could last week as i was able to see most of that game live

[9:01:39 AM] DADD...: weather games for sure in 302 and 314
[9:01:50 AM] DADD...: wind could play factor also in 322 and to a lesser extent 324
[9:13:42 AM] DADD...: Home reversals today all over the place.... 301, 303, 307, 311, 315, 317, 319, 325, 327, 331.... crazy, 10 of the 16 games the home team today won at the other team's place earlier this year

[9:26:30 AM] DADD...: hearing reports that 49er coach will be fired after this game
[9:26:35 AM] DADD...: i think i like Rammers
[9:26:52 AM] DADD...: for however bad they are and on the road at least their coach is still there and they sure as shit will likely play hard
[9:27:25 AM] DADD...: Jets game i made pick really no clue, i had Goats first time and won down in NY but here i not sure i would want them
[9:27:36 AM] DADD...: Caro i made right on number, in the shay i took 10.5
[9:28:00 AM] DADD...: can't see Cam playing that long as i don't think home field is the end all be all for the Panthers, they can win at Arizona if it comes to that
[9:28:18 AM] DADD...: NE can't lay DD's to anyone not even sad sack Miami
[9:28:28 AM] Eddie: but trust me
[9:28:32 AM] Eddie: they will want home field
[9:28:34 AM] Eddie: you know that
[9:28:45 AM] DADD...: winning the game and covering 10 are two different animals
[9:28:57 AM] DADD...: Bengals i lay 7.5 in the shay i made 9 who knows
[9:29:05 AM] DADD...: sorry made 10
[9:29:12 AM] DADD...: balty played hard last week
[9:29:16 AM] DADD...: would guess they will again today
[9:29:18 AM] Eddie: real hard
[9:29:21 AM] DADD...: bengals air out of sails
[9:29:23 AM] DADD...: short week
[9:29:26 AM] DADD...: out of elevation
[9:29:51 AM] DADD...: atl i made 4.5
[9:29:59 AM] DADD...: saints i have been riding good the last few weeks for some reason
[9:30:04 AM] DADD...: falcones played their Super Bowl last week
[9:30:17 AM] Eddie: y
[9:30:25 AM] DADD...: in the shay it's sitting 4 so i have it as a lay but if i see any movement to dog on the screen i will take +4
[9:30:43 AM] DADD...: houston 6.5/45 my price and it's listed that in the shay
[9:30:47 AM] DADD...: no clue i decided to take
[9:30:53 AM] DADD...: will monitor movement
[9:31:01 AM] DADD...: and switch if any steam goes to fave
[9:31:13 AM] DADD...: pitt i made 8/44 even without Johnathan Fuckin Football
[9:31:27 AM] DADD...: seems an awfully high ask of them here regardless of the side circumstances in CLE
[9:31:41 AM] DADD...: contest line 10 so for now i keep it as a lay
[9:31:49 AM] DADD...: also i think everyone else behind me gonna pick PIT also
[9:32:14 AM] DADD...: KC i made 9/43
[9:32:22 AM] DADD...: raiders will play hard and i think chiefers are locked in
[9:32:30 AM] DADD...: oh wait could win the West in theory
[9:32:50 AM] DADD...: i can monitor market and switcheroo later if need be, it's 6.5 in the contest so no brainer
[9:32:52 AM] DADD...: for now
[9:32:57 AM] DADD...: colts i made 5
[9:33:07 AM] DADD...: but my gosh the QB was struggling in some minor league as little as six weeks ago
[9:33:25 AM] DADD...: 5/38
[9:33:32 AM] DADD...: pinny opened total 41 what crack are they on
[9:33:44 AM] DADD...: i would have bet that for whatever limit they took if i were paying attention
[9:33:57 AM] DADD...: might close 37.5
[9:33:59 AM] DADD...: 38
[9:34:07 AM] DADD...: could always get off some at that level
[9:34:14 AM] DADD...: Dallas 1/42
[9:34:18 AM] DADD...: no idea what Wash coach will do
[9:34:23 AM] DADD...: how can dallas lay 4
[9:34:31 AM] DADD...: Alabama won more games there this season than they did
[9:35:02 AM] DADD...: contest dallas is pick as there was no line (same as Colts) so i guess i'll just root them in and trust the move
[9:35:10 AM] DADD...: how is Detroit the favorite?
[9:35:17 AM] DADD...: i made Bears 2.5 -15 and 46
[9:35:26 AM] DADD...: i think i might bet Bears +105
[9:35:45 AM] DADD...: coach is no idiot, will have them playing hard i think... other guy seems to probably be fired
[9:35:58 AM] DADD...: gmen 5/49
[9:36:16 AM] DADD...: i lean UNDER there, no Chipper Kelly to run an offense at the insane pace, look for a bit slower tempo today from Philly
[9:36:26 AM] DADD...: possibly windy there, gonna consider UNDER 51
[9:36:41 AM] Eddie: ty
[9:36:48 AM] DADD...: Packers i lean but who knows
[9:36:53 AM] Eddie: i lean vikings
[9:36:55 AM] Eddie: for sure
[9:37:00 AM] Eddie: i will swap that with you
[9:37:03 AM] DADD...: zig-zag jobber
[9:37:11 AM] DADD...: GB was awful last week, Minny looked like world beaters
[9:37:25 AM] DADD...: the same scenario set up right before these teams played in Minneapolis and the Packers shitkicked them
[9:37:31 AM] Eddie: yea
[9:37:33 AM] Eddie: we had minnie
[9:37:38 AM] DADD...: not me
[9:37:42 AM] Eddie: me
[9:37:42 AM] DADD...: you did
[9:37:48 AM] DADD...: i told you why not to
[9:37:52 AM] DADD...: was playing devil advocate
[9:37:56 AM] DADD...: as i do that as good as anyone
[9:38:23 AM] DADD...: denver i made only 8
[9:38:32 AM] DADD...: SD seems to still be playing hard
[9:38:34 AM] Eddie: i think packers are in trouble
[9:38:36 AM] DADD...: finally healthy
[9:38:39 AM] Eddie: 12 does not look right
[9:39:00 AM] DADD...: they been in trouble since the 3rd best receiver in the league tore up his knee on that shit that pittsburgh people call grass
[9:39:22 AM] DADD...: lean Rammers
[9:39:29 AM] DADD...: ariz 6.5/44
[9:39:35 AM] DADD...: i think i like UN 47 a bit
[9:39:39 AM] DADD...: but both 3's can make plays
[9:39:50 AM] DADD...: both teams in i expect a bit of shutdown mode from at least one team if not both
[9:39:58 AM] DADD...: 2H UNDER definitely worth a look if first half is high scoring
[9:40:32 AM] Eddie: k
[9:40:41 AM] DADD...: someone betting gmen OV
[9:40:46 AM] DADD...: happy days could be returning soon
[9:40:54 AM] DADD...: maybe i can wait out 52
[9:40:56 AM] DADD...: has to be fakey
[9:42:19 AM] DADD...: 10 games at 1 today
[9:42:27 AM] DADD...: it's a lot but there was one week with 11
[9:42:31 AM] DADD...: so we can handle it
[9:42:32 AM] Eddie: all year like that
[9:42:43 AM] Eddie: most at 4 all year was 4 maybe?
[9:42:44 AM] DADD...: at least they moved 2 games back
[9:42:44 AM] Eddie: 5 once
[9:42:52 AM] DADD...: 5 today also
[9:42:57 AM] DADD...: why i rooting for Rammers to move to LA
[9:43:02 AM] DADD...: one more west coast team for 8 later games
[9:43:09 AM] Eddie: y
[9:43:15 AM] DADD...: of course i think they already gonna play a HG in London next yeatr
[9:43:21 AM] DADD...: and prolly get a home TNF game
[9:43:25 AM] DADD...: so just 6 late games instead



So this is my discussion with a friend in the biz on Sunday more than 3 hours to kick. Circles are coming off soon. I have no plays yet, but leans are:

NO +6
Wash 1st half +3 -115
Bears +105 ML
Gmen UNDER
Packers -3 flat or better
Diego +10
Rammers
Ariz UNDER


All thoughts and discussions are welcome. I'll be around, somewhat busy, and sweating Everton right up to the 1:00 kicks. Then I'm going to pour a Gentlemen's Jack or two on the rocks with lunch, work the 1:00 halves, then pour a very stiff Beam and Coke or three and try to bag my old lady later. GL to me on all counts.

:shake:
 
GL on the last tid-bit. A little post bowl stress release may be good for all of us. Just apologize for how rough you are going to be ahead of time. Unless she like it rough, then tell her "you're welcome." Either way, thanks for all the hard work this year. GL CKR.
 
ESPN reporting that Skins expect to play Cousins probably just the first half today. who knows what they will do though.
 
thanks Rex...great read

and, good luck on bagging the old lady :breakdance:
 
Rex, agree with your thoughts on total in Indy, but I was thinking through Freeman's last start at QB where he set the record for lowest completion % in a game (Vikes vs. GMen on MNF a few years back). what's your take on a large number of incomplete passes that stop the clock? doesn't that open the possibility that we could see more scoring because it will extend the game? Playing a bit of devils advocate I guess.
 
I don't buy it; Mason can help move the ball for the Rammers and the 49ers are just dreadful and head coach is dead man walking

P-Unit - yes. But he just came in this week. Colts tried to control the line last week vs. Miami and by and large had success. They should continue to have more today, and I expect a heavy dosage of Gore and dare i say it but it's possible a 100 yard day?
 
Rex -

Am I missing anything in NEW ORLEANS? My PR have ATL -2. I don't see why Saints don't continue trend of playing hard.
 
I am with you smh.

There is a move on Atlanta just now, and the Saints are at my target number.

First play is in on Saints +6 for 1.5u
 
Pats literally would have made about 10-11 guys inactive if they could have. Some guys will be in emergency mode only. The O-line is a total mess. If Miami bothers to show up - a big if...

The play: Miami +10 small to med 1.5u
 
I refuse to believe this money on Detroit can be right, win or lose. Bears superior coach and want to go out a winner at home.

The play: Chicago +128 for 1.5u
 
Sharp side is Goats vs. Jets. I will be watching that one for live and halftime purposes. Jets will look to really shitkick them if they can, so I'll post any live or half play in here if i see Goats start to quit in that cold.
 
LIVE Bills +110. Jets QB cannot throw the ball into the wind; see the first quarter. 1u only i could get at Jazz. I will look for more at the next timeouts...
 
only fuckin game i won, lmao. i did get a parlay Mia/UN also that paid almost 6-to-1 for a unit also that basically makes the halves a wash.
 
2H Tampa +3 -114 big 3u

They won't quit, even though other team will. Just like in Zona game. 2H total is untouchable at 20.5 but Tampons will keep trying.
 
Packers are a great zig-zag team when coming off a loss. Minny is too, but they're off a win. The zig-zag is in play, and last week's disparate results sets up a GB play. See my original post, and I'll obviously be getting a good price cause I am swapping with my buddy (-3 +110 i got).

Would recommend GB -3 even or better for 2u medium.

GL...
 
One lastplay before I leave, it seems 18 coming in for Denver. After a long layoff, would think he'll take them up and down the field.
'
Denver -150 live 2u medium.

GL...
 
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