CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Best of luck over the next few days. I'll prolly crank out a bigass writeup on Christmas Eve that should preview all of the bowls for a few days (14 more from Dec. 26-30), and then I'll knock out another one with the last 14 that gets us through Jan. 4. This is tentative; lots of time and effort go into the writeups, with very little compensation. I can only hope work I do translates to smarter decisions at the window, and if it reflects properly on these pages, it helps our CTG members make or save money as well. :shake:
There will be 39 bowl games played this year. This is a new record as the barrage of 6-6 and 7-5 teams that get to celebrate their mediocrity goes up once again. Adding four new bowls and the CFB Playoff Championship game makes it 76 of the 129 teams in D-I football playing on Dec. 20 or later; a staggering 59 percent. Off my soapbox shortly, but when did it become kosher for all of these teams to celebrate being mediocre? There are 34 (!) schools that will enter these bowl games with five or six losses, and Fresno State got a dubious NCAA waiver after getting beaten at Boise in the Mountain West title game to go bowling at 6-7. Back in 1969, which is probably before the majority of CTG'ers were even a twinkle in their parents' respective eyes, there were just EIGHT bowl games. Going bowling then meant something. You could be sure to get a prime effort out of most every team then. Now, not so much so. Tread with caution before going big on any of these games, although it's certainly fair to see how each institution and coach have done in varying roles (favorite, dog, over/under record) in bowl games going back several years. Some recent trends, like double-digit favorites not getting the money in the pre-Christmas bowls, are fairly new trends and might or might not hold. Another trend that bears watching, especially in these early games, is the Mid-American Conference going 0-5 SU and ATS last year. Many folks think the MAC is down this year even from last year's mediocre edition. I'll agree that the MAC East is down, but the MAC West teams might be better than advertised; we'll find out very early - three of the top four MAC West teams are in action before Christmas Day. Below are my thoughts on them, and the other games.
New Orleans Bowl
There could be worse ways to open up bowl season. You get two guys who have more experience than any other bowl quarterback combo in any other game. U-La-La QB Broadway started his career as a true freshman at Houston in 2010. As a fifth-year transfer, he's played integral parts in each of the last three seasons for the Lafalots, winning this game all three years while also getting the money. Meanwhile, Cody Fajardo started at Reno in 2011 after Colin Kaepernick graduated and went to the 49ers. When healthy, he's run the Reno signature Pistol offense at a level never much below Kaepernick's.
Interestingly enough, this has probably been Broadway's worst year statistically, but it would be dangerous to dismiss him as a quarterback that has somehow regressed. He'll pilot the Sun Belt's best (sorry, Georgia Southern, I like diversity) offense. The Ragin' Cajuns run the ball a bit more this season, as slamming 2013 SBC first-team back Alonzo Harris scored 12 touchdowns while 2014 SBC Player of the Year Elijah McGwire leads the way as the starter. He had 1,165 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on a dizzying 7.8 yards per carry, with 40 catches to boot. The Cajuns should be able to move the ball up and down the field against a forgiving Reno defense if they answer the 11 a.m. Central Standard Time bell for the kickoff here. Nevada-native James Butler will certainly be amped for this one. The reliable possession receiver will be where Broadway looks to throw when he needs to, and the senior can certainly do damage against the Wolfpack secondary, although U-La-La would be well advised to carry its ground game as far as it can.
On the other side, Fajardo has been banged up for parts of each of his first three years. This season, while healthy, he's struggled a bit (numbers-wise) compared to what he had done under former coach (and Pistol formation inventor Chris Ault). Last season was Brian Polian's first season as a head coach at any level, and while Fajardo has more turnovers this year, he also has 31 touchdown passes and 13 rushes for scores. He joins Kaepernick as the only 9,000-yard rushers and 3,000-yard passers in Division I history. Hard to lay points to that in a bowl game. Also must note that Reno is playing in a bowl for the ninth time in 10 years, and the competition has been significantly more difficult consistently than what U-La-La has seen the last three years at the Superdome. A good horse racing analogy would be Reno playing in small (ungraded) stakes races, with the Cajuns stuck in mid-level claiming races. I made Reno a small favorite but won't get involved because of U-La-La's success here for three straight years and the early (9 Pacific time) start. Most interestingly, Reno was as much as a 2-point favorite at BetCRIS on Friday night, with the M Casino south of the Las Vegas strip using PICK.
New Mexico Bowl
Lots of credit for UTEP, which won five games in two years before this one, then got to 7-5 in 2014. A close look at the schedule helps explain why, as the Miners largely beat up on bad teams while struggling mightily against the few decent teams they faced. Still, give the Miners credit for taking advantage of the aforementioned "7-win" threshold they wanted to meet (and did) before the season. Some of us know our ceilings.... Senior QB Jameill Showers has done an adequate job of taking care of (and controlling; they're SECOND in the nation in time of possession) the ball and can hit enough passes when it's important to keep the aggressive Utag defense on their heels. UTEP has only committed six turnovers in its last eight games. That said, USU has played a much more rugged schedule, allowing less than 21 ppg and forcing 29 takeaways, giving up 16 or less to five of the last eight teams it has played. Something's gotta give.
This is another game where the Mountain West side will have a decent edge in class. UTEP hasn't finished with a non-losing record in eight years while Utah State has been an eye-popping 24-12-1 ATS the last three seasons. The Aggies are on their fourth quarterback of the season, with true freshman Kent Myers piloting his team to a 4-1 record since taking over last month. UTEP has played in six straight UNDERS, a sign that their coach is content in letting his much-improved defense (against also-rans) is content in letting his offense shorten the game and allowing the opponent to make enough mistakes to overcome. With a true frosh against him, I won't try to lay double-digits, but the class difference isn't letting me take, either. The DD-dogs are a recent historical winner in pre-New Year's Day bowls, so if you're on the fence and aren't scared of backing a big dog, hold your nose and bet UTEP. But I don't see UTEP breaking a bowl win drought that dates to 1967. I'm passing.
Las Vegas Bowl
Of the five Saturday games, this is the lone tilt that won't be shown on ESPN. In fact, "the Mouse" is showing every other game before New Year's Day on ESPN except for the Sun Bowl, which is the only bowl game CBS has the rights to these days. Another "Mouse" station, ABC, has this clash. It's a short ride southwest down Interstate 15 for Utah fans commuting from Salt Lake City, so expect the Ute fans to be at full throat at Sam Boyd Stadium; Colorado State might well have a decent backing in its own right. The Rams lost head coach Jim McElwain to Florida after a 10-2 season, but interim coach (and offensive coordinator) Dave Baldwin will take charge here. He's been well-traveled but he has a chance to take over as the head coach if things go well here. Certainly, he'll be motivated if he wants the job.
McElwain did a great job; he inherited a team that went 3-9 three straight seasons. In 2012, his first season, he laid the groundwork for a 4-8 season. The Rams went 8-6 last season before this year's 10-2 mark. They won the New Mexico Bowl in dramatic fashion a calendar year ago, coming from 45-30 down against Washington State with less than three minutes left to win 48-45 on a last-second field goal.
Utah lost three of five down the stretch but did win five of six on the road this season. The Utes were particularly good at winning close games, but were mauled in three of their losses by 14 or more against the number. Seven of their nine Pac-12 games were decided by 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2 and 1 outright.
Colorado State has gotten all of the sharp money in this game, and the Rams might well win it, but I won't have them. The Rams averaged 7.21 yards per play, which ranked fourth in the country. And CSU QB Garrett Grayson (32 touchdowns, only six interceptions this season) will get drafted next spring. But Utah faced the much tougher schedule, as evidenced by most any computer rating system that any astute handicapper would look at.
The Utes led the country in sacks, with 52. The super-aggressive 4-3 that head coach Kyle Whittingham employs uses as many as 10 guys up front in a rotation. Nate Orchard had 17.5 sacks and won the Ted Hendricks Award as the top defensive end in America. If things get tough on offense, Ray Guy Award winner Tom Hackett (19 punts inside the 10-yard line) can put Grayson in tough spots. Utah is 10-1 in its last 11 bowls and has won under Whittingham, who has covered in six of his eight bowls as Utah head coach.
With all of the positives pointing to Utah, at least to win, I still can't get over the Utes winning five games by six or less points this season. Even with the tougher schedule and a perceived crowd edge, I can't go out and lay points.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Is this really the name of this game now? Can't we call it the "Boise Bowl", or the "Smurf Turf Bowl"? I guess the Famous Idaho Potato sponsorship group wouldn't go for that. Too bad, because I'm done typing that name again.
It seems a lot of these games, considering how diluted the bowl pool is these days, do have something noteworthy going on. In this game, we'll see the two most improved teams in the country facing each other. Western Michigan was 1-11 straight up last year, and finished 8-4 under second-year coach P.J. Fleck in 2014; the Air Force Academy won nine games after a 2-10 season in 2013. Again, the Mountain West team should be running in a higher class, but it might not be as pronounced this time. Western did face Purdue, Virginia Tech, Toledo and Northern Illinois, but in those games it gave up around 6 yards per rush. That bodes poorly for Fleck's defense, which has never seen the triple option (or anything like it) before.
Western's psyche might also come into play here. Northern Illinois came to Kalamazoo as an 8-point dog, trailed 21-7 in the second quarter, and left town a 31-21 outright winner. Stud running back Jarvion Franklin has a stellar freshman year (1,525 yards, 25 touchdowns) but should face the full wrath of the Air Force defense, which wasn't very good against the pass but adequate against the run. Both teams posted similar defensive stats, but AFA played a much tougher schedule with its MWC slate than WMU's MAC foes. The Broncos haven't been to a bowl since 2011 and the MAC has not been successful in these spots the last couple of seasons, routed by a MWC both times. Sharp money is on WMU, but I couldn't have them, even though I think the AFA played way over its head this year. The linesmakers weren't fooled; why should I be?
Camellia Bowl
The What Bowl? What is Camellia? I looked in the dictionary and got this: 'an evergreen eastern Asian shrub related to the tea plant, grown for its showy flowers and shiny leaves.'
So the same tea-based stuff that your insecure girlfriend made you try to drink when one of you guys were in a state of instability, regardless of reason? And they made a bowl game out of this?
OK, off the editorial soapbox.
This game will be played in Montgomery, Ala., roughly two hours north of the South Alabama campus. The Jaguars might be excited to play in it, and if their fanbase is any measure, they SHOULD be. The allotment for students sold out early in the first day, and there will be 30-plus buses commuting up Interstate 65 to the cozy Cramton Bowl. This will be the first bowl game in the history of USA football. The Beegees will be playing in their seventh in 17 years; hardly a Notre Dame of the industry but, in relative terms, a Notre Dame in this spot.
While the MAC has struggled as a whole recently, and fared poorly against Sun Belt foes in southern venues as of late, I'm not sprinting to bet on the Jaguars here. Their wins have come against Kent State, Idaho, Appalachian State, Georgia State, Troy State and Texas State. Beat someone with a state for Chrissakes (no offense to the Vandals)! Combined records: 21-49. USA was 6-6 last year and didn't get a bowl bid; that team might have better than this 6-6 version, which lost four of its last five.
But who in their right mind could line up and bet the Beegees? The Falcons have been dinged for 41 points on six occasions, lost to all three MAC West teams they played (despite somehow winning the MAC East) and saw its defense on the field for a mind-numbing 1,081 plays. Two weeks might not be enough to recharge those batteries.
Favorites in USA games are 12-3-1 in the last 16; dogs in BG games are 9-2-2 (depending on where you shop) the last 13. Laying points seems wrong, even though taking with Bowling Green hardly seems a better alternative. The Camellia Bowl might as well be the El Paso Bowl. As in, "I pass"...
No plays as of now... back for halves...
And I'll be back later Sunday evening, shitfaced, to get through the rest of the games through Dec. 24...
GL!
:shake:
There will be 39 bowl games played this year. This is a new record as the barrage of 6-6 and 7-5 teams that get to celebrate their mediocrity goes up once again. Adding four new bowls and the CFB Playoff Championship game makes it 76 of the 129 teams in D-I football playing on Dec. 20 or later; a staggering 59 percent. Off my soapbox shortly, but when did it become kosher for all of these teams to celebrate being mediocre? There are 34 (!) schools that will enter these bowl games with five or six losses, and Fresno State got a dubious NCAA waiver after getting beaten at Boise in the Mountain West title game to go bowling at 6-7. Back in 1969, which is probably before the majority of CTG'ers were even a twinkle in their parents' respective eyes, there were just EIGHT bowl games. Going bowling then meant something. You could be sure to get a prime effort out of most every team then. Now, not so much so. Tread with caution before going big on any of these games, although it's certainly fair to see how each institution and coach have done in varying roles (favorite, dog, over/under record) in bowl games going back several years. Some recent trends, like double-digit favorites not getting the money in the pre-Christmas bowls, are fairly new trends and might or might not hold. Another trend that bears watching, especially in these early games, is the Mid-American Conference going 0-5 SU and ATS last year. Many folks think the MAC is down this year even from last year's mediocre edition. I'll agree that the MAC East is down, but the MAC West teams might be better than advertised; we'll find out very early - three of the top four MAC West teams are in action before Christmas Day. Below are my thoughts on them, and the other games.
New Orleans Bowl
There could be worse ways to open up bowl season. You get two guys who have more experience than any other bowl quarterback combo in any other game. U-La-La QB Broadway started his career as a true freshman at Houston in 2010. As a fifth-year transfer, he's played integral parts in each of the last three seasons for the Lafalots, winning this game all three years while also getting the money. Meanwhile, Cody Fajardo started at Reno in 2011 after Colin Kaepernick graduated and went to the 49ers. When healthy, he's run the Reno signature Pistol offense at a level never much below Kaepernick's.
Interestingly enough, this has probably been Broadway's worst year statistically, but it would be dangerous to dismiss him as a quarterback that has somehow regressed. He'll pilot the Sun Belt's best (sorry, Georgia Southern, I like diversity) offense. The Ragin' Cajuns run the ball a bit more this season, as slamming 2013 SBC first-team back Alonzo Harris scored 12 touchdowns while 2014 SBC Player of the Year Elijah McGwire leads the way as the starter. He had 1,165 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on a dizzying 7.8 yards per carry, with 40 catches to boot. The Cajuns should be able to move the ball up and down the field against a forgiving Reno defense if they answer the 11 a.m. Central Standard Time bell for the kickoff here. Nevada-native James Butler will certainly be amped for this one. The reliable possession receiver will be where Broadway looks to throw when he needs to, and the senior can certainly do damage against the Wolfpack secondary, although U-La-La would be well advised to carry its ground game as far as it can.
On the other side, Fajardo has been banged up for parts of each of his first three years. This season, while healthy, he's struggled a bit (numbers-wise) compared to what he had done under former coach (and Pistol formation inventor Chris Ault). Last season was Brian Polian's first season as a head coach at any level, and while Fajardo has more turnovers this year, he also has 31 touchdown passes and 13 rushes for scores. He joins Kaepernick as the only 9,000-yard rushers and 3,000-yard passers in Division I history. Hard to lay points to that in a bowl game. Also must note that Reno is playing in a bowl for the ninth time in 10 years, and the competition has been significantly more difficult consistently than what U-La-La has seen the last three years at the Superdome. A good horse racing analogy would be Reno playing in small (ungraded) stakes races, with the Cajuns stuck in mid-level claiming races. I made Reno a small favorite but won't get involved because of U-La-La's success here for three straight years and the early (9 Pacific time) start. Most interestingly, Reno was as much as a 2-point favorite at BetCRIS on Friday night, with the M Casino south of the Las Vegas strip using PICK.
New Mexico Bowl
Lots of credit for UTEP, which won five games in two years before this one, then got to 7-5 in 2014. A close look at the schedule helps explain why, as the Miners largely beat up on bad teams while struggling mightily against the few decent teams they faced. Still, give the Miners credit for taking advantage of the aforementioned "7-win" threshold they wanted to meet (and did) before the season. Some of us know our ceilings.... Senior QB Jameill Showers has done an adequate job of taking care of (and controlling; they're SECOND in the nation in time of possession) the ball and can hit enough passes when it's important to keep the aggressive Utag defense on their heels. UTEP has only committed six turnovers in its last eight games. That said, USU has played a much more rugged schedule, allowing less than 21 ppg and forcing 29 takeaways, giving up 16 or less to five of the last eight teams it has played. Something's gotta give.
This is another game where the Mountain West side will have a decent edge in class. UTEP hasn't finished with a non-losing record in eight years while Utah State has been an eye-popping 24-12-1 ATS the last three seasons. The Aggies are on their fourth quarterback of the season, with true freshman Kent Myers piloting his team to a 4-1 record since taking over last month. UTEP has played in six straight UNDERS, a sign that their coach is content in letting his much-improved defense (against also-rans) is content in letting his offense shorten the game and allowing the opponent to make enough mistakes to overcome. With a true frosh against him, I won't try to lay double-digits, but the class difference isn't letting me take, either. The DD-dogs are a recent historical winner in pre-New Year's Day bowls, so if you're on the fence and aren't scared of backing a big dog, hold your nose and bet UTEP. But I don't see UTEP breaking a bowl win drought that dates to 1967. I'm passing.
Las Vegas Bowl
Of the five Saturday games, this is the lone tilt that won't be shown on ESPN. In fact, "the Mouse" is showing every other game before New Year's Day on ESPN except for the Sun Bowl, which is the only bowl game CBS has the rights to these days. Another "Mouse" station, ABC, has this clash. It's a short ride southwest down Interstate 15 for Utah fans commuting from Salt Lake City, so expect the Ute fans to be at full throat at Sam Boyd Stadium; Colorado State might well have a decent backing in its own right. The Rams lost head coach Jim McElwain to Florida after a 10-2 season, but interim coach (and offensive coordinator) Dave Baldwin will take charge here. He's been well-traveled but he has a chance to take over as the head coach if things go well here. Certainly, he'll be motivated if he wants the job.
McElwain did a great job; he inherited a team that went 3-9 three straight seasons. In 2012, his first season, he laid the groundwork for a 4-8 season. The Rams went 8-6 last season before this year's 10-2 mark. They won the New Mexico Bowl in dramatic fashion a calendar year ago, coming from 45-30 down against Washington State with less than three minutes left to win 48-45 on a last-second field goal.
Utah lost three of five down the stretch but did win five of six on the road this season. The Utes were particularly good at winning close games, but were mauled in three of their losses by 14 or more against the number. Seven of their nine Pac-12 games were decided by 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2 and 1 outright.
Colorado State has gotten all of the sharp money in this game, and the Rams might well win it, but I won't have them. The Rams averaged 7.21 yards per play, which ranked fourth in the country. And CSU QB Garrett Grayson (32 touchdowns, only six interceptions this season) will get drafted next spring. But Utah faced the much tougher schedule, as evidenced by most any computer rating system that any astute handicapper would look at.
The Utes led the country in sacks, with 52. The super-aggressive 4-3 that head coach Kyle Whittingham employs uses as many as 10 guys up front in a rotation. Nate Orchard had 17.5 sacks and won the Ted Hendricks Award as the top defensive end in America. If things get tough on offense, Ray Guy Award winner Tom Hackett (19 punts inside the 10-yard line) can put Grayson in tough spots. Utah is 10-1 in its last 11 bowls and has won under Whittingham, who has covered in six of his eight bowls as Utah head coach.
With all of the positives pointing to Utah, at least to win, I still can't get over the Utes winning five games by six or less points this season. Even with the tougher schedule and a perceived crowd edge, I can't go out and lay points.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Is this really the name of this game now? Can't we call it the "Boise Bowl", or the "Smurf Turf Bowl"? I guess the Famous Idaho Potato sponsorship group wouldn't go for that. Too bad, because I'm done typing that name again.
It seems a lot of these games, considering how diluted the bowl pool is these days, do have something noteworthy going on. In this game, we'll see the two most improved teams in the country facing each other. Western Michigan was 1-11 straight up last year, and finished 8-4 under second-year coach P.J. Fleck in 2014; the Air Force Academy won nine games after a 2-10 season in 2013. Again, the Mountain West team should be running in a higher class, but it might not be as pronounced this time. Western did face Purdue, Virginia Tech, Toledo and Northern Illinois, but in those games it gave up around 6 yards per rush. That bodes poorly for Fleck's defense, which has never seen the triple option (or anything like it) before.
Western's psyche might also come into play here. Northern Illinois came to Kalamazoo as an 8-point dog, trailed 21-7 in the second quarter, and left town a 31-21 outright winner. Stud running back Jarvion Franklin has a stellar freshman year (1,525 yards, 25 touchdowns) but should face the full wrath of the Air Force defense, which wasn't very good against the pass but adequate against the run. Both teams posted similar defensive stats, but AFA played a much tougher schedule with its MWC slate than WMU's MAC foes. The Broncos haven't been to a bowl since 2011 and the MAC has not been successful in these spots the last couple of seasons, routed by a MWC both times. Sharp money is on WMU, but I couldn't have them, even though I think the AFA played way over its head this year. The linesmakers weren't fooled; why should I be?
Camellia Bowl
The What Bowl? What is Camellia? I looked in the dictionary and got this: 'an evergreen eastern Asian shrub related to the tea plant, grown for its showy flowers and shiny leaves.'
So the same tea-based stuff that your insecure girlfriend made you try to drink when one of you guys were in a state of instability, regardless of reason? And they made a bowl game out of this?
OK, off the editorial soapbox.
This game will be played in Montgomery, Ala., roughly two hours north of the South Alabama campus. The Jaguars might be excited to play in it, and if their fanbase is any measure, they SHOULD be. The allotment for students sold out early in the first day, and there will be 30-plus buses commuting up Interstate 65 to the cozy Cramton Bowl. This will be the first bowl game in the history of USA football. The Beegees will be playing in their seventh in 17 years; hardly a Notre Dame of the industry but, in relative terms, a Notre Dame in this spot.
While the MAC has struggled as a whole recently, and fared poorly against Sun Belt foes in southern venues as of late, I'm not sprinting to bet on the Jaguars here. Their wins have come against Kent State, Idaho, Appalachian State, Georgia State, Troy State and Texas State. Beat someone with a state for Chrissakes (no offense to the Vandals)! Combined records: 21-49. USA was 6-6 last year and didn't get a bowl bid; that team might have better than this 6-6 version, which lost four of its last five.
But who in their right mind could line up and bet the Beegees? The Falcons have been dinged for 41 points on six occasions, lost to all three MAC West teams they played (despite somehow winning the MAC East) and saw its defense on the field for a mind-numbing 1,081 plays. Two weeks might not be enough to recharge those batteries.
Favorites in USA games are 12-3-1 in the last 16; dogs in BG games are 9-2-2 (depending on where you shop) the last 13. Laying points seems wrong, even though taking with Bowling Green hardly seems a better alternative. The Camellia Bowl might as well be the El Paso Bowl. As in, "I pass"...
No plays as of now... back for halves...
And I'll be back later Sunday evening, shitfaced, to get through the rest of the games through Dec. 24...
GL!
:shake:
