CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
So I had a bit of free time tonight and figured i would get this out of the way since i've already played the games i'll be involved with this week...
Jags laying points for the first time since Oct. 21, 2012 (43 games), when they lost outright to Oakland as a favorite. There are better ways to invest your money than to try to get involved with the worst Thursday game in league history.
Frisco being the favorite at this point makes little to no sense to me. An interesting tidbit: teams who have played Seattle have failed to win in their next game for two full months. This would have been nice to know before i took a shits-n-grins shot on the Eagles last week, exactly 7 days after seattle beat them down. Now the 49ers with nothing to play for and have been awful at home all season. Pass, as my number makes SF about -3, but Diego is the only way I would bet.
I am the contrarian in the Niffel. I was never a Bobby Griffin fan when the Skins mortgaged the farm to get him from the Rams, i think him staying in the playoff game vs. seattle two years ago was selfish prickness and denied me a right side winner if Cousins played.... obviously, his struggles have been well-documented. Now, he gets a second chance at life. Not sure whether the Skins bother to show up with him or not, but this giving up social media deal and concentrating on Philly (which he put up 34 against the first time) is a good idea. WAY too many points here. Philly has been exposed pretty good the last couple of weeks. Line not even close here.
The play: Washington +7.5 -105 med to big 2.5u
Minnesota continues to get little to no respect from the lines guys. Fins playing themselves right out of the playoffs with borderline embarrassing efforts the last two weeks (dominating the 1h at NE last week, i know, i bet the turds in the 2h)... we've seen this before, with the QB losing all of his confidence. The play calling has been horrid, not bothering to take advantage of the fact that 17 runs like a deer. Miami just 71 ypg rushing last three. Minnesota 7-1 last 8 against number and with Teddy B coming home, expect inspired effort from the poised rookie.
The play: Vikings +6.5 med 2u
Lean Tampa if an 11 pops; they'll keep playing hard. Packers want to win but it's all there for them in Week 17 at home; that's the spot to bet them, not this one.
Lean Bears even with the QB change. I don't like Clausen or dislike Cutler but you have to be stone blind or just stupid (or ignorant?) if you watch the Bears and deem Cutler to be the problem. Why not try giving the ball to 22 every once in awhile instead of having 6 drop back 40 times a night? Pass.
Made NO right at the number against Atlanta. No clue what will happen but will root Falcons outright to make Week 17 games more sweat-worthy.
Jets have given NE fits (all 3 games within 3 since start of 2013, including jets win last year at home)... line seems high, pass for now but if it goes up (not likely) then i'll look at the dog.
No clue at all in Pitt, although the total seems lowish; pitt OVER all six at home this year. look forward to watching the 1h there and making up my mind at the half.
Assuming Cam goes, Caro should be laying 3 or so, with a total in the low-40s vs. Cleveland. I don't blame 2 for his shitty week vs. Cincy last week. When Walters bet Cin and UN within the last 90 mins to post i figured that Manziel would prolly not be worth a shit, and Billy proved right again. Not all his fault; they ran 38 plays (!) total, the defense couldn't get off the field and it honestly looked like a 180 from the Thurs night game in Cincy, like the teams switched jerseys or something. Weirdo.
No real clue about Houston QB; i made the game lower but the Kubiak-back-in-town to horsefuck them angle worries me if i were to have the dog. pass.
Would lean UNDER in STL; Gmen defense still playing hard and Rammers will continue to compete and with extra rest. Nothing yet.
Nothing in Oakland; Goats in unfamiliar territory of laying significant points on the road. Raiders have been better at home the last couple out. UNDER not bad, but tough to get one of these games to stay in the 30s now with the possibility of D/ST scores...
No opinion in Dallas regardless if the RB plays or not; i expect points aplenty.
I've got zero clue where they got this line on Sea/Ariz. Once again the Cardinals get to play the no-respect card. I'll be on them huge. First, let's look at the negatives. Seattle's defense has been lights out for a month, giving up 27 points TOTAL in the last four games. Cardinal No. 3 QB Ryan Lindley will get the start; he was 4-for-10 when coming in last week after Drew Stanton injured his leg. Lindley was 1-3 as a starter SU as a rookie in 2012 for the Cards; he's yet to throw a touchdown pass in his Niffel career as a 6th-round draft choice out of San Diego State.
Arizona is 7-0 at home this year and you can expect the best coached team in the league to empty the emotional reservoir here. A win gives them the top overall seed and allows Arians to rest everyone and give them two weeks of rest before hosting two playoff games and then staying at home for the Super Bowl, should they find the ability to win 3 more games (*the right three*) in the next few weeks. The extra rest and prep time from having played at St. Louis last Thursday won't hurt, either.
Arizona was competitive in the 19-3 loss at Seattle last month. The Cardinals missed a field goal, allowed a blocked punt, threw an interception and dropped a touchdown pass. Seattle’s only touchdown came when tight end Cooper Helfet (?) caught a ball at the line of scrimmage and four Cardinals defenders whiffed at home near the sidelines. That sloppiness won't happen again at home.
Let's look a bit more at that first meeting; the following excerpt is from SI.com's Greg Bedard:
"Arizona sacked Russell Wilson seven times and basically played the Seahawks even except for two blown plays: a 48-yard Wilson pass to Ricardo Lockette (coverage bust by safety Rashad Johnson), and a 40-yard read option run by Wilson when the end crashed the running back.
The Cardinals were all over Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (15 carries for 39 yards) in the first matchup. Tony Moeaki led the Seahawks with four catches. Arizona will miss Mathieu, who continues to battle a thumb injury. He was a big key in the run defense. They could also stand to spy Wilson a bit better; along with the 40-yard read-option run he also had a killer 15-yard run on third-and-long on the play that preceded the game’s only touchdown. The score never would have happened if Wilson had been accounted for. Calais Campbell (three of the team’s seven sacks) was huge. Arizona kept sending extra players, daring Wilson to beat them. He just couldn’t.
The first matchup showed that the Cardinals, who didn’t play close to a perfect game, could stay with Seattle. If they do that again, at home this time, anything can happen. Considering all the injuries they’ve had, nobody though Arizona would even be in this position, one win away from clinching the NFL’s toughest division. It would be foolish to start doubting them now."
The bottom line is that, much like last week and many others since October, the line reflects total disrespect for what the Cardinals have done all year. They win with defense and not making mistakes on offense. Rookie RB Kerwyn Williams has ran for 175 yards in the two weeks since the Cards lost starting RB Ellington to a season-ending injury. He's been great. The Bags have gone UNDER in four straight; Arizona has only played to four OVERS all season (depending on where you shop, of course).... with the total in the mid-30s, points should be at a premium. This many to the Cards at home is a stone joke.
THe play: Arizona +7.5 real big, 5u
Made Denver 3.5 on Monday night. I'll be back in town and have an offer or two to go to that one. Considering Cincy is 90 mins or so to my northeast, and the flight to SDF will get there 3 hours before kick... i'll at least consider it if they bring a cooler of beer throw in a fifth of Woodford and a few cans of coke for the ride up. Lord knows I'll be smashed from my SJO/ATL and ATL/SDF flights...
:shake:
GL this week to everyone!
:shake:
Jags laying points for the first time since Oct. 21, 2012 (43 games), when they lost outright to Oakland as a favorite. There are better ways to invest your money than to try to get involved with the worst Thursday game in league history.
Frisco being the favorite at this point makes little to no sense to me. An interesting tidbit: teams who have played Seattle have failed to win in their next game for two full months. This would have been nice to know before i took a shits-n-grins shot on the Eagles last week, exactly 7 days after seattle beat them down. Now the 49ers with nothing to play for and have been awful at home all season. Pass, as my number makes SF about -3, but Diego is the only way I would bet.
I am the contrarian in the Niffel. I was never a Bobby Griffin fan when the Skins mortgaged the farm to get him from the Rams, i think him staying in the playoff game vs. seattle two years ago was selfish prickness and denied me a right side winner if Cousins played.... obviously, his struggles have been well-documented. Now, he gets a second chance at life. Not sure whether the Skins bother to show up with him or not, but this giving up social media deal and concentrating on Philly (which he put up 34 against the first time) is a good idea. WAY too many points here. Philly has been exposed pretty good the last couple of weeks. Line not even close here.
The play: Washington +7.5 -105 med to big 2.5u
Minnesota continues to get little to no respect from the lines guys. Fins playing themselves right out of the playoffs with borderline embarrassing efforts the last two weeks (dominating the 1h at NE last week, i know, i bet the turds in the 2h)... we've seen this before, with the QB losing all of his confidence. The play calling has been horrid, not bothering to take advantage of the fact that 17 runs like a deer. Miami just 71 ypg rushing last three. Minnesota 7-1 last 8 against number and with Teddy B coming home, expect inspired effort from the poised rookie.
The play: Vikings +6.5 med 2u
Lean Tampa if an 11 pops; they'll keep playing hard. Packers want to win but it's all there for them in Week 17 at home; that's the spot to bet them, not this one.
Lean Bears even with the QB change. I don't like Clausen or dislike Cutler but you have to be stone blind or just stupid (or ignorant?) if you watch the Bears and deem Cutler to be the problem. Why not try giving the ball to 22 every once in awhile instead of having 6 drop back 40 times a night? Pass.
Made NO right at the number against Atlanta. No clue what will happen but will root Falcons outright to make Week 17 games more sweat-worthy.
Jets have given NE fits (all 3 games within 3 since start of 2013, including jets win last year at home)... line seems high, pass for now but if it goes up (not likely) then i'll look at the dog.
No clue at all in Pitt, although the total seems lowish; pitt OVER all six at home this year. look forward to watching the 1h there and making up my mind at the half.
Assuming Cam goes, Caro should be laying 3 or so, with a total in the low-40s vs. Cleveland. I don't blame 2 for his shitty week vs. Cincy last week. When Walters bet Cin and UN within the last 90 mins to post i figured that Manziel would prolly not be worth a shit, and Billy proved right again. Not all his fault; they ran 38 plays (!) total, the defense couldn't get off the field and it honestly looked like a 180 from the Thurs night game in Cincy, like the teams switched jerseys or something. Weirdo.
No real clue about Houston QB; i made the game lower but the Kubiak-back-in-town to horsefuck them angle worries me if i were to have the dog. pass.
Would lean UNDER in STL; Gmen defense still playing hard and Rammers will continue to compete and with extra rest. Nothing yet.
Nothing in Oakland; Goats in unfamiliar territory of laying significant points on the road. Raiders have been better at home the last couple out. UNDER not bad, but tough to get one of these games to stay in the 30s now with the possibility of D/ST scores...
No opinion in Dallas regardless if the RB plays or not; i expect points aplenty.
I've got zero clue where they got this line on Sea/Ariz. Once again the Cardinals get to play the no-respect card. I'll be on them huge. First, let's look at the negatives. Seattle's defense has been lights out for a month, giving up 27 points TOTAL in the last four games. Cardinal No. 3 QB Ryan Lindley will get the start; he was 4-for-10 when coming in last week after Drew Stanton injured his leg. Lindley was 1-3 as a starter SU as a rookie in 2012 for the Cards; he's yet to throw a touchdown pass in his Niffel career as a 6th-round draft choice out of San Diego State.
Arizona is 7-0 at home this year and you can expect the best coached team in the league to empty the emotional reservoir here. A win gives them the top overall seed and allows Arians to rest everyone and give them two weeks of rest before hosting two playoff games and then staying at home for the Super Bowl, should they find the ability to win 3 more games (*the right three*) in the next few weeks. The extra rest and prep time from having played at St. Louis last Thursday won't hurt, either.
Arizona was competitive in the 19-3 loss at Seattle last month. The Cardinals missed a field goal, allowed a blocked punt, threw an interception and dropped a touchdown pass. Seattle’s only touchdown came when tight end Cooper Helfet (?) caught a ball at the line of scrimmage and four Cardinals defenders whiffed at home near the sidelines. That sloppiness won't happen again at home.
Let's look a bit more at that first meeting; the following excerpt is from SI.com's Greg Bedard:
"Arizona sacked Russell Wilson seven times and basically played the Seahawks even except for two blown plays: a 48-yard Wilson pass to Ricardo Lockette (coverage bust by safety Rashad Johnson), and a 40-yard read option run by Wilson when the end crashed the running back.
The Cardinals were all over Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (15 carries for 39 yards) in the first matchup. Tony Moeaki led the Seahawks with four catches. Arizona will miss Mathieu, who continues to battle a thumb injury. He was a big key in the run defense. They could also stand to spy Wilson a bit better; along with the 40-yard read-option run he also had a killer 15-yard run on third-and-long on the play that preceded the game’s only touchdown. The score never would have happened if Wilson had been accounted for. Calais Campbell (three of the team’s seven sacks) was huge. Arizona kept sending extra players, daring Wilson to beat them. He just couldn’t.
The first matchup showed that the Cardinals, who didn’t play close to a perfect game, could stay with Seattle. If they do that again, at home this time, anything can happen. Considering all the injuries they’ve had, nobody though Arizona would even be in this position, one win away from clinching the NFL’s toughest division. It would be foolish to start doubting them now."
The bottom line is that, much like last week and many others since October, the line reflects total disrespect for what the Cardinals have done all year. They win with defense and not making mistakes on offense. Rookie RB Kerwyn Williams has ran for 175 yards in the two weeks since the Cards lost starting RB Ellington to a season-ending injury. He's been great. The Bags have gone UNDER in four straight; Arizona has only played to four OVERS all season (depending on where you shop, of course).... with the total in the mid-30s, points should be at a premium. This many to the Cards at home is a stone joke.
THe play: Arizona +7.5 real big, 5u
Made Denver 3.5 on Monday night. I'll be back in town and have an offer or two to go to that one. Considering Cincy is 90 mins or so to my northeast, and the flight to SDF will get there 3 hours before kick... i'll at least consider it if they bring a cooler of beer throw in a fifth of Woodford and a few cans of coke for the ride up. Lord knows I'll be smashed from my SJO/ATL and ATL/SDF flights...
:shake:
GL this week to everyone!
:shake:
