Rexy's Week 14 Niffel...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
GL to us all today.

Six weeks ago the Bengals went into Pittsburgh and won a real slobberknocker, 16-10. Steelers looked great last weekend and are no doubt a dangerous team but these Bengals continue to get little to no respect while by and large staying healthy. Pitt has put up 30-plus in all of their games since the first meeting, while Bengals have done the same in four of their last five, so points could be aplenty - or it could be just like the first game. Cincy is better situated to win in either type of scenario, especially if it's a low scoring game again. That said, the Week 8 meeting featured five INT's from the QB's combined, including several stupid penalties and botched snaps and that possibly artificially kept the score down. Atkins put pressure up the middle against backup center Wallace last time and that's a matchup Cincy should have fun with again today, and the left tackle Villanueva is a backup. Bengals know how to go after Roethlisberger as they see him more than any other team. The Steeler secondary is abysmal, as Oakland and Seattle proved. Last week they only rushed three or four most of the time against Indy, but that won't work today with a much better QB going. Pitt needs turnovers to have success, and Cincy isn't a team that gives the ball away easily most of the time. I made the game 6; it's an easy lay.

The play: Cincy -1.5 big, a rare 4u Niffel play for me


I would consider Carolina at -7 as a bet but at this level or higher no play; made the game 11.

Who is Detroit to all of a sudden start laying 3 or more (minus juice at least) on the road, especially with their playoff hopes essentially dashed after the last game? Rammers have been awful lately, no denying any of that, but they routinely have come up with superb december home efforts with Fisher in charge the last few years. Today is certainly a day where it could happen again as people around that organization are fighting for their jobs at this point. Detroit mental a serious concern - a no-show is quite possible here.

The play: Rammers +3 +105 small to med 1.5u

Colts haven't lost a division game since Moby Dick was a fish. Technicalities (or in Big Worm's voice in Friday, 'principalities') involved here...

The play: Indy +110 ML small 1u. Number got away from me. Anything at +101 or better is in play for the tech trend to hold.

Nothing else for now; got several leans. We'll see how they play out.

Chat me about anything and everything Niffel related in the next 90 mins and I'll get back in here a time or two for sure. GL!

:shake:
 
I see the pitt/cicny game a shootout today with the edge to Pitt. I will take the points here. line at two waiting for the half to buy the book. We know their secondary is shit as everyone does. They adjust or lose. Either way should be one of the best games to view today. Health on the play. BOL the rest of the way today.
 
Never gonna get that, Farm. Sharp guys lining up against me.

They did it on Philly also, so............

Buffalo ML +115 small 1u. Just a principle play on a game that should be pick or Buff -1.

Fuck a bunch of steam.
 
Janoris Jenkins is out. Quinn and McDonald are done for the year. Chris Long is playing on 1 leg. Rams have street guys playing Oline for a QB who might not be good enough to be a backup let alone a starter. With Fisher at the helm and a change in OC, this ship has all but sunk. Risky to put coin on a team this bad. I hope you're right obviously because I've seen enough losing. GL
 
forgot to post, had another unit on cincy at -1 and another one at pick. Total of six units there. And yes, the Rammers should be a lost cause, but the other team laying points to anyone on the road is a joke, let alone 3 or more with all of the lame ducks on that sideline.
 
Every game Baltimore has played this year has been decided by 6 points or less, save for one eight-point loss against Arizona. Now they want to have Seattle lay double digits on the road? I realize Ravens new LT and are banged up, but this line is an insult to the professionals on Baltimore's team.

The play: Ravens +10.5 med 2u.
 
I will be on Houston. The only question now is the amount. I have some +4.5 even locked in. Houston 3-0 ATS last 3 at home; NE 0-3 on road ATS last 3. My info says gronk will play but be nothing more than a decoy, much like SB 46. He is not ready to go but the other TE is Q as well. O'Brien and Romeo get their daddy at home, and you can be sure they're licking their chops to get that team in the current state they're in.

Houston is the play, will be for at least 2 units. When Cincy wins, i will go for more especially if line goes up to the 6 ish range.
 
Interesting, I have this at my book. might lock in HOU now.

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o-button.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: datetime"]Dec 13[/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]125[/TD]
[TD="class: teamname"]PATRIOTS (NE)[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: right"]-6-105<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="0_1939496_-6_-105" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: right"]o45½-110<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="2_1939496_-45.5_-110" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: moneyline, align: right"]-240<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="4_1939496_0_-240" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: childexpand, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: datetime"]8:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]126[/TD]
[TD="class: teamname"]TEXANS (HOUS)[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: right"]+6-115<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="1_1939496_6_-115" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: right"]u45½-110<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="3_1939496_45.5_-110" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: moneyline, align: right"]+200[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
That is the same line Jazz has, which i can get to.

I'm not laying 15 cents. No reason to lock in anything. Public all over NE from what it seems, I'll take my chances of getting a better number later.
 
Frisco: Blocked field goal, fumber recovery, interception - three points total. Browns totally dominant. Manziel's last pitch was awful but other than that he's been solid.

The play: 2H Cleveland PICK even small to med 1.5u
 
2H New Orleans +6 med 2u

What game are they watching? Saints deferred and have been the better team. Seems the light finally came on for them in the last 8-9 days.
 
2H Colts/Jags UNDER 22.5 med 2u

Offenses have been shit. While I expect some adjustments, it seems like each team playing not to lose rather than to win. Conservative approaches will continue to rule the second half (for Jags, that is really not too smart. Colts missing both starting corners again).
 
2H Buffalo PICK -115 med 2u.

Line should be at least 3 on top. Stop turning the ball over (ST that includes you) and keep moving up and down the field. Good things will happen.
 
I bet some more Houston +4.5. Call it about 2.5 units in total, med to big. Will probably be no halftime play as i am too busy getting smashed. If there is, be advised i will be drunk with my opinion so prolly be no good.

:shake:
 
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