Rexy's Week 13 College...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Thanks to Jammer for the boost but more importantly thanks to myself for being awesome, lmao.

Ended up 10-5 and +11.5 units last week. Florida State's continuance to shave in the first half has been paying off handsomely as of late. (And if it's not true, then please for fuck's sake someone tell me how they can consistently be outprepared in every game for 30 mins and then be far superior in the last 30).

Line might go down here but won't risk it. Northwestern pushing for bowl eligibility at this point, and Purdue is still a heaping pile of dung. Lay the short.

147 Northwestern -3 medium 2u.

Can Monrow actually lay more than a touchdown on the road to someone? This is a very winnable game for New Mexico State.

204 NM State +8 medium 2u.

A few more chances to get SMU, better act fast. After their near miss last out, figure them to be flatter than a pancake.

204 Central Florida -26.5 medium 2u.

A few others are on the radar, but will wait for better numbers that I anticipate seeing later in the week.

GL!

:shake:
 
An explanation outside of shaving is that FSU has far superior talent to everyone they've played. These other teams put together solid game plan and play balls out and eventually wear down. From what I've seen of FSU games thus far, their comebacks are largely just athletes making plays more than any actual adjustments
 
gps_3 said:
An explanation outside of shaving is that FSU has far superior talent to everyone they've played. These other teams put together solid game plan and play balls out and eventually wear down. From what I've seen of FSU games thus far, their comebacks are largely just athletes making plays more than any actual adjustments
Click to expand...

That would almost explain the shaving more. They clearly have superior athletes so why don't those guys make plays in the first half?
 
Schrute said:
That would almost explain the shaving more. They clearly have superior athletes so why don't those guys make plays in the first half?
Click to expand...

Guess my point was that coaching and effort can only take you so far against superior athletes, and that FSU isn't really doing anything different in the 2nd half than the 1st, they are just better
 
2 huge adjustments Saturday were going more nickel personnel 2nd half instead of base/big to counter Miami going less 21 personnel & flexing Walford. Offensively spreading box more, flexing O'Leary & involving WR3. The latter led directly to Dalvin Cook's go ahead TD, the former led to Kaaya going 6-17 1int 2nd half & miami going 2-7 on 3rds in 2h. Of which Kaaya converted just 1/6 3rds passing after being perfect 1st half
 
You may recall a couple Miami long passes where Chris Casher was covering Walford or WR (base D personnel) in 1st, Casher is a DE/LB. 2nd half more Nate Andrews/nickel backs on flexed TE & slot WR.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Line might go down here but won't risk it. Northwestern pushing for bowl eligibility at this point, and Purdue is still a heaping pile of dung. Lay the short.

147 Northwestern -3 medium 2u.
Click to expand...

Any thought to the stat teams after covering vs ND are 2-21 now ATS, my group bet Oregon St ATS and ML pretty much on this.
 
there was sharp money for the dog in that game and i probably should have had the Beavers at the half but was terrified that they were down 10 and really outplayed ASU. That is certainly an interesting stat but part of my thought process to that being a flawed statistic is that Notre Dame is often overvalued to begin with, so when a team covers against them it gives them an artificial boost in the power ratings which, a lot of times, is largely undeserved. But 2-21 is a staggering number, i guess it has to go back four or five years.

welcome to the gig.

Good observations, silky
 
lmao, i will nominate that for post of the year. trouble is, i won big with him around and now he's gone. bad deal for my superstitious ass.
 
gps_3 said:
An explanation outside of shaving is that FSU has far superior talent to everyone they've played. These other teams put together solid game plan and play balls out and eventually wear down. From what I've seen of FSU games thus far, their comebacks are largely just athletes making plays more than any actual adjustments
Click to expand...

UL blowing 10 coverages deep certainly helped, but I agree with the fatigue factor combined with pounding RBs/Jameis making great plays under pressure cuz the opposing defenses look like they have no chance to get a stop
 
a few of these games seem to be moving my way, save for the Northwestern play. Well, i've seen this before. Will have a writeup on that one later.

In the meantime, 2 more units for a 4 unit play on Northwestern, 2 medium at bad price, 2 med at PICK.

Sorry notime to start the moves thread this week. Preseason hoops tournaments pretty much makes it impossible to stick with it with everything going on but i'll put up a cursory thread in a bit detailing some earlier moves. Will also possibly be adding a play tonight, just need a smidge more line value.
 
Missed the 3 on Kansas State. I ended up taking +125 on game 111. Would advise you take +120 or better if available, medium 2u play.

that guy is 23-10 ATS as a dog since coming back, best coach in the country... K-State extra prep time since getting mauled at TCU... TCU QB is mobile and was able to escape when K-State got him in trouble, but K-State has largely stopped every offense they face this year with a QB who stays in the pocket and West By God Virginia QB is a statue... no way can they be a dog here...
 
After giving up what looked like a won game vs Florida State do you expect a good effort from Miami vs Virgina?
 
i never for one minute after halftime felt like Miami had won anything. That's FSU's M-O this year, and I have profited from it immensely.

UVa is playing for coach's life and bowl eligibility and rarely get embarrassed. He's a bad game coach but has done really a decent job this year after last year's debacle. Their defense plays hard. They should key in on the RB and make the QB beat them; he still doesn't have the stones to win a good close taut game.

That said, I made game a great deal higher than it is now and would only lay 5.5 with a gun to my head. Numbers wise, it's a Miami play, but to answer your question, I'm not sure how they will get off the mat, which aids me in a PASS recommendation here.
 
Pretty sure London has lost the team. Not sure how he managed to make them regress so much otherwise

good luck Rex
 
Rexy getum this week bro!! Christmas card is in the mail..thanks again
 
Rex : Need your thoughts on a scenario I just experienced. On Monday I played a 2 team 6pt teaser using Steelers(winner) I left the 2nd team open & filled it with Buffalo on weds night. As you know the Buff game was cancelled due to snow, they are telling me the entire play is now cancelled...... I am like wtf???? Shouldn't this teaser still be open??
 
PRs be damned, I will be opposite your big NW play. This team sucks, and I'm not letting a comeback win against an ND team that is hot garbage as big faves deter me from fading them against a sneaky mediocre Purdue team that has played relatively well of late and has been sitting around waiting for them off a bye week. No secret that Fitz and the Cats have always thrived in that road dog role over the years, but this spot is a different one. With an early start in what should almost definitely be a half-empty stadium, it wouldn't surprise me if NW didn't show up at all.
 
lindetrain said:
PRs be damned, I will be opposite your big NW play. This team sucks, and I'm not letting a comeback win against an ND team that is hot garbage as big faves deter me from fading them against a sneaky mediocre Purdue team that has played relatively well of late and has been sitting around waiting for them off a bye week. No secret that Fitz and the Cats have always thrived in that road dog role over the years, but this spot is a different one. With an early start in what should almost definitely be a half-empty stadium, it wouldn't surprise me if NW didn't show up at all.
Click to expand...

Have watched every NU game (alum). I wouldn't say the team sucks, let's just say they are inconsistent. Its like flipping a coin betting them. Their offense has been brutal all year, because the OL has sucked. The OL and offense played great against ND, and Siemian (QB) was more mobile than he has been all year. BUT ND DEFENSE SUCKS BAD. The Offense may have some much needed confidence going into this game, we shall see. The WR's have been dropping balls left and right. Tony Jones (#6) dropped THREE, yes THREE TD passes against ND. They have dropped balls all year. Prater is now a stud at WR, and their true freshman RB should go for 100+ against Purdue.

The NU defense is not too bad, but running QB's can kill them. Iowa dissected the defense and their offense really isn't that great. Purdue may do the same.

Bottom line, there is no way to predict game with this NU team. There a few beat writers who are 0-9 predicting the NU games this year (not including the W Ill game). 0-9! NU has won the 3 games where they were lined as the biggest dog (+7.5, +10, +17). And lost 2 games as a 7+ favorite.

NU could win by 20+ with a Penn State like performance, or they could lose by 14 with a Iowa performance.

I would lean OVER 51. Betting a side is literally flipping a coin.
 
thanks for the thoughts...

matty i'll respectfully disagree about Purdue. I expect there to be at least 45k at Ross-Ade unless the weather makes it difficult; what else is there for people to do in west central Indiana on a fall Saturday? NW is now 4-6 and are more apt to not pull a "no-show" than most Big 10 schools simply because of their academic reputation and their coach, in my opinion. If they were not bowl eligible, the case for them today is much tougher.

Purdue is far from sneaky mediocre; they stone suck. Yes this comes from a guy who has lost against them many times and has beaten them only a couple this year, with Wisky being the latest in a one-sided game far worse than the final score indicated. Boilers are 4-19 SU in last 23, and though they've covered six times, five of those came when catching two possessions (four DD's) or more. NW should score at will as people in the league have started to figure out the Purdue D, which has allowed 38 plus PPG the last four. Anything in the mid-30s should be comfortably enough today.

Thanks for the insight Bong... just have to hope my power ratings hold up for once with these guys (they were very good to me when they played Iowa a couple back)... GL...
 
Cash - Unfortunately, many offices grade that teaser exactly how yours did. When one leg is a win and the other is a NO-ACTION, it can be graded as the same as a WIN and PUSH, meaning you get a refund, and nothing else.

If you were a "good" customer, meaning you had played for a long time and been a lifetime loser, you could probably lobby your way into having them open it back up for you or getting the Monday ngiht rescheduled game leg of the teaser put in, but in reality they would be doing you a favor. Those rules are rules, and this is one of the times you caught the ass end of it (say you had a teaser with that Sunday Buff/Jets game with Air Force last night - it would have [or at least SHOULD HAVE] been graded NO ACTION before the Friday game even started, as soon as the Buff game was officially moved to Monday. In that case you would have been spared a loser, so it can work both ways)...
 
one sides I like that match with a guy i respect and i think i'll get the best of the number going now...

163 New Mexico +21.5 small to medium. Made this one a smidge cheaper. Davie has Los Lobos competing now, which is more than can be said since Rocky Long left town. Colly State has bigger fish to fry; win and move on.

Waiting out 130 Sakerlina and 154 Florida State for better numbers. I might go on FSU at half or live again...
 
CollegeKingRex said:
one sides I like that match with a guy i respect and i think i'll get the best of the number going now...

163 New Mexico +21.5 small to medium. Made this one a smidge cheaper. Davie has Los Lobos competing now, which is more than can be said since Rocky Long left town. Colly State has bigger fish to fry; win and move on.

Waiting out 130 Sakerlina and 154 Florida State for better numbers. I might go on FSU at half or live again...
Click to expand...
surprised to see you wanting SC action with our swiss cheese D but hey maybe we can stop someone this week :cheers3:
 
guy I respect just added Testicle Tech -16.5. I'll reluctantly add for 1u small against Emu's. Not sure how they'll play with 7 losses already but i made game much higher. Just taking a price; it will go up.
 
South Bama QB situation resolved, with starter coming off the bench here. Sakerlina sharp guy could be billy, not sure, just laid 23.5 so I am gonna do it as well and be done with it.

130 Sakerlina -23.5 medium 2u.

I got some more Northwestern pick making this one of the biggest plays of the year as it matches up with one of my sharp friends in Vegas. reasoning listed earlier.

Timbo, I made Wisky 9.5 and that same sharp guy out there is all over Iowa. Series domination as of late (46-11 avg last four games for Dicks, all wins and covers) and Iowa's ghastly rush defense keeping me off but my guess is at 10, sharp will be Iowa or nothing. GL...
 
Adding Noles, same sharp guy out there on them, billy's guys all took out the dog earlier, whether legit or not, the game can't go down anymore and i have to respect my numbers.

154 Florida State -16.5 medium 2u. Would lay -17 small for 1u.
 
Two good teams; I made Central -2 with Rawls in and healthy. Both teams getting sharp support today at the window; can't be sure if the line will do anything but i don't think there is any funny biz here, seems good $ both ways.
 
If anyone would know, it's probably you Rex...any idea why Arizona St is playing, at home, at 10am local time today?
 
i don't respect it. it wasn't there long. they might be trying to shade a hot handicapper but i would tag it again if i weren't already overexposed to it.
 
Northwestern's best CB is out, didn't see this coming, apparently got hurt at practice at end of week. not sure that would move the line but it was announced just a few mins ago
 
2H Purdue -2 medium 2u. NW offense has generated little since the QB got injured. Purdue gets ball first and moved the ball well last drive. Just a small hedge out of my six units on NW to this point.

2H Purdue UNDER 24.5 small to med 1.5u. Both teams averaging 4.5 ypp or less.
 
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