Rexy's Week 12 Niffel...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Let's get after it today.

Except that there was really nothing for me today until a number popped a few minutes ago with Ivey and Matchbook being both on the Jets.

I'll ride with Miami at the +4.5 -105 pricetag you can get at CRIS.

Fins still had that clueless coach in London, when the Jets by and large dominated them. Eight weeks later, Dan Campbell figures to lead a much more red-assed group of Fins into the Meadowlands. Fitzpatrick is trying to recover from recent hand surgery and has been starting to throw it to the wrong team (four picks last two). Jay Ajayi is adding a nice combo element to a backfield that's spearheaded by Lamar Miller, who figures to have some success today. Too many points for the Jets to lay to anyone.

Sadly enough I've got no other plays in the day games at this point.

I did bet the night game yesterday when I got the info that Collins and Amenduelas weren't travelling to Denver. Already bet the Broncos earlier in the week. Bottom line is that Denver should be supremely pumped (see Green Bay) to host a Sunday night game. They're 3-0 at night SU/ATS this season, and it was Sunday night four weeks ago when Denver played the most impressive game of any team to date when knocking undefeated Green Bay right into a 1-3 tailspin that is ongoing. Same thing will likely happen here. Brady is an all-time great, but these injuries are going to be too much to overcome.

Give NE credit, they have found ways to win against the Gmen and Bills the last two weeks, but this is a whole different beast. The Denver defense is the best in the league, and the only team that's even relatively close to them is New England. Belichick has done a masterful job into molding them into someone that will stop teams with a different gameplan every week. Rookie quarterback Brock Osweiler was efficient last week; his team only scored 17 points but he made no mistakes. A similar-type game will be needed here, as all the film study in the world about New England won't matter when they switch coverages, personnel, packages, from series to series, if not play to play. Must stay committed to the run, and Hillman will have to be a key contributor. That said, Denver's not going to win this game by outscoring the Pats. They'll win it with defense.

Outside of Brandon LaFell, the Pats have two receivers that traveled. One is hurt and the other i've never heard of. No Edelman was a horse-crippler, but no Amendola was the final death knell. Gronkowski and White are the only real offensive weapons (with LaFell) and Denver has enough talent to key on those guys and make someone else try to beat them. But who? This will finally be the week that Brady looks mortal.

Prediction: Denver 20, New England 10
The play: Denver +3 flat (would bet +120 or better ML is acceptable for the same price you can't get that) for 2u med
Denver UNDER 43.5 medium to big 2.5u

GL!

Ask about any games you want my insight on; I'll get back when I get time

:shake:
 
Tampa Bay and Chiefs...thoughts? I looked at Brutal Chiefs schedule to start now laying only four off short week vs Divisional opponent for Bills..Like the Chefs
 
I just can't bet this QB against Belichick. These guys who haven't seen much almost never beat him.

GL, sexy rexy.
 
sportscap - Houston would be my play, most of the sharp money is there. I passed it personally because of the x-factor with the Saints coming off the bye and with a new defensive coordinator. Tough to lay points when you look at the QB matchup.

GG - Tampa Bay i would only have against. Think this is a good spot for the Colts (almost for sure planning to lose next weekend at Pitt) so would not be surprised for a good effort here, and Tampa is playing better but are due to lay a turd at any moment. At 2.5 flat or better i would consider an Indy play.

KC at home is laying a number just too high for now. That said, I made the game 7, but with the rain and sloppy track at Arrowhead, the total is low and points could be at a premium.

The top total going up is all the sharp on OV there.

GL fellas. I'll be around on and off again a couple of more times before 12:50 or so
 
Made Arizona higher but anyone working on the other side of the counter will be rooting Frisco today, as every square teaser in the world will be tied to zona, and parlays to them also etc.

Late game there is very sharp money for Pittsburgh that's keeping me off Seattle for now, but I made the game 5 and will consider laying 2.5 with Seattle considering Roethliesberger is basically a statue back there and Seattle still has a top-5 defense and probably a top-10 offense, and at home again.
 
2H Denver +1/2 -115 med 2u

Largely dominant in the 2Q. The two secondary injuries worry me, but Son Of Bum has the best of it vs. 12.

2H Denver UN 21.5 -105 med 2u

I will double down on my UNDER. Overtime is the only thing that scares me. Can't see many more points being scored.
 
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