Rexy's Week 11 Niffel...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Took the bagel up the anus last week 0-3. Worst week all season. Let's do better today, eh?


That's what happens when you try to force plays in the Niffel. Much like an average QB trying to fit passes into tight windows of a Niffel secondary, bad things are always favored to happen...

Not much to like today, either. I think the numbers are tighter than a snake's ass. Then again, aside from Pitt and the Saints last week, every single public side got the keesh. So maybe that's part of my problem...

Made Cleveland a bit higher today but i'm not a fan of laying meaningful points with team not used to success suddenly getting it thrust in their face in this league.

Made the Cubs right at the number but gun to head I would lay. Minny really not very good and the Cubs are at the "buy" point for any stock trader that looks for highs and lows. Can it really get much worse for Chicago? I guess we'll find out today but one of my sharp friends who looks for value says that this is the buy-time for Chicago. I can see his point.

I'll take a stab with GB. Made a smidge higher. Best player in league, healthy bunch by and large, and steamrolling along. It's more how good they were last week than how bad Chi was i think, and even though Sanchez is an upgrade from Foles at QB, he's still not the idea Chipper Kelly system QB. They'll be in a heap of mess today.

GB -5.5 medium to big 2.5u.

Chiefs are cheap today against Seattle. Superior team and playing at home. No brainer lay. Hell, they might even get a receiving touchdown today (yes, I'm calling it, despite it not happening all year).

KC -1.5 medium 2u

Can Atlanta really lay points on the road for the second straight week? How bad must Carolina be for this to take place? One thing for ATL; they do like their coach and keep trying. More than I can say for a lot of teams, and Caro is just real banged up.

Missed the good price on Saints at open but after they F'ed me last week, no thanks. Enough flaws with this bunch that I can't recommend laying, despite Cincy being awful since its Week 3 win.

No clue on Redskins, made a smidge higher but anyone looking to lay a touchdown with that bunch probably belongs at GA.

Horrible spot for Denver but they are a notoriously good bully under 18 and Fox.

Made Niners only 3, and a bad spot for them as well. Pass, as Gmen you just never know. Could be the end of the line for Coughlin, he's looking like Andy Reid 2012 version as of late over there.

Made Diego at the number, not sure.

Made Arizona a favorite and there seems to be some opposition. I'm not sure if I have Stanton rated too high or not (i know his completion percentage is a joke)... Detroit keeps finding luckbox ways to win, so it's tough to bet against a winning team, but I migth still bet on Arizona bet. A pick at home seems awfully disrespectful for what they've accomplished this season. Their defense should slow the Leo offense. Maybe UNDER later, as well.

Lean Colts but could only bet at less than 3; should be a good game but I lean them playing at the Oil Drum. Hard part of Pats season starts tonight; if they lose this one i think winning the division will be tougher than most expect.

Lean Titans tomorrow but will pass for now and watch the line movement.

GL fellas!

:shake:
 
Sir Rex - wonder how high the total can be for the GB/ PHilly game :)
what is the highest total you ever saw/made - i remember back in the mid 2004 05 time frame a kc / indy game got to around 56 - like the gb/philly game today. look forward to more PKR picks as well !!!! really like the KC play - seems as if they are for real this year as the schedule is not a walk in the park. thanks for all you do!!!!!!
 
Sir Rex - wonder how high the total can be for the GB/ PHilly game :)
what is the highest total you ever saw/made - i remember back in the mid 2004 05 time frame a kc / indy game got to around 56 - like the gb/philly game today. look forward to more PKR picks as well !!!! really like the KC play - seems as if they are for real this year as the schedule is not a walk in the park. thanks for all you do!!!!!!

I think last year there was a 60 pt spread. Might have been Atl/NO or something
 
I think last year there was a 60 pt spread. Might have been Atl/NO or something
Thanks D

60......incredible - i did not realize the indy / pats total was at 57 for today and considering this game and the pack game will go over. also expecting the saints/kitty game to exceed as well....
 
if there was a 60 i don't recall seeing it d-woww... i remember checking with a buddy earlier to wonder when we would finally see one. It will only be a matter of time. The punters for both teams need not dress for Indy game, expect McAfee is kickoff guy also...
 
2H Chiefs PICK even money medium 2u more.

I know what I saw, chiefs are dominating the line of scrimmage. Wilson making some real nice plays but everything is a struggle for the Bags. If the Chiefs don't turn the ball over, they won't lose. Simple as that.
 
Arizona +105 ML medium 2u play. No respect at all for the Cards. Win today and go up 3 games on everyone with six games left.

Also added some more Green Bay -4 for another unit, so this is my big play today (although I guess the Chiefs combining game and half ended up being the big one)...

GL...
 
2H Arizona +3 +105 medium 2u

Still the superior team. Detroit has a total of four first downs. This isn't Atlanta on a neutral field letting off the gas. This is a defense that they won't be able to penetrate with a superior coach to make proper adjustments to keep Detroit guessing. Heavy dosages of Ellington would be nice, as well (for my fantasy)...
 
game Colts -3 flat. 2u medium. I made game close to line but suckers betting Pats like they stealing, and in the 10 years I've lived here, I've had a chance to bet the Colts and go out and root them about 5 times total. Fuck it, good day, let it roll... :)
 
Tennessee +7 medium 2u.

Where does this line come from? Billy on the favorite almost for sure, but there is sharp (Ivey, Q etc) on the dog and it keeps going up.

Pitt averages less than 17 per game on the road and now they want to lay a full touchdown? You must be shittin me.

Better coach and at home. No brainer...

GL...
 
I see a whole lot of 6.5 on the board but no 7s yet. Should I wait it out And it will get there Rexy? Thanks for the huge weekend.
 
Rex

My local said he had 50 players on GB yesterday & 5 on Philly......with the fav getting this kind of support why would that line go from 5.5 to 4.5?? Seems like there have been a lot of scenarios like that this yr?? He also mentioned he has been getting killed on the Overs on thurs,sun, & mon games
 
Just curious, but who's Ivey and Q? First time poster, but big fan of your thread Rexy, always look forward to your weekly threads!
 
cash - every sharp guy for one reason or another (database?) bet on Philly.

it was a fucking joke. Public money absolutely mauled them. People were sick having to use cheap. Every time anyone reputable went high, the sharpies smashed the dog. It's funny looking back in retrospect. They win some, they lose some. Action points would have been a train wreck

ivey = poker player Phil Ivey, one of the best cash game players ever

Q = Quan Tran, best Asian bettor ever, stone degenerate but got more gamble to him than anyone...
 
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