Rexy's Week 11 College...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Sup fellas, let's see if we can't figure out a way to turn out another winning week.

It's Tuesday MACtion.

I made Akron much cheaper. I realize that Pohl is back and they're at home, but Beegees have had a bit of extra time to sort through the numerous defensive problems. No way can the Zippies lay a touchdown to a team that none of their players have ever beaten (Beegees have won five in a row in the series).

This one's not going up, as I will soon post in the line movement thread.

The play: Bowling Green +6.5 medium to big 2.5u

Made Toledo Dildos 14.5 tonight, no opinion there but the sharp money is on Kent State and both totals tonight will go up. If you like OVERS, go now; UNDERS, wait it out...


GL!

:shake:
 
Routine anoche... onto tonight's MACtion...

Ball State has lost five in a row to the Huskies, with the unbeaten and 16th-ranked Cards flattening Northern 45-14 in 2008. Since then, a combination of Brady Hoke's departure and Stan Parrish's arrival in Muncie, coinciding with Huskie QB's Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch running roughshod over virtually everyone in the MAC, has led to Northern Illinois winning the Bronze Stalk annually since then.


NIU's defense ranks among the 10 worst in the country by some advanced metrics, despite it being deep and a bit more aggressive than in 2013. With Jack Milas improving seemingly by the quarter since finally wresting the QB job from Ozzie Mann last month. He's yet to throw an interception. Meanwhile, Jahwan Edwards is healthy now and should have his way with the Huskie defense, which has struggled against the run. Horatio Banks can certainly contribute when Edwards needs a breather; he's the top backup in the league. Central Michigan running back Thomas Rawls ran for 270 yards against Northern on Oct. 11. Last week, Eastern Michigan ran for 257 yards against the Huskies.


The Huskies have been strong up front on offense, and that could be a concern if they can sustain some long drives and keep Milas, Edwards & Co. off the field. NIU runs for 269 yards per game, which leads the league, and have allowed just five sacks all season (tied for third in the nation). NIU also has just five turnovers, which is tied for tops in I-A football.


That said, the Cardinal defense is finally showing signs of a Lembo 'D'. There were some early season struggles, which weren't at all unexpected when losing classy D-coordinator Jay Bateman to Army in the offseason. The Nads have forced 10 turnovers in their last two games, both wins against a 4-2 Central Michigan team that is bowl eligible and an Akron team that was in contention for a MAC East crown before last night's loss to the Beegees.


Ball U is fifth in the nation in turnover margin, which has largely camoflauged a lot of their woes while playing with a scattershot QB for the first six weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Huskies have only forced seven turnovers all season.


Finally, with the line being around a field goal, the kicking game could matter. In that department, the Nadders have a huge edge. Scott Secor is 21-of-26 on field goals this season, while Northern's Tyler Wedel is just 8-for-15. I don't think it will come down to a field goal, but if it does, we know the hosts have the edge.

Prediction: Ball State 31, Northern 23

The play: Nadders +3.5 medium to big 2.5u.

No opinion on OU and Barfalo; I made Ohio U 4.

GL!
 
Irish: i got your line wrong last week. i was under the misunderstanding that it was a neutral site and gave the navals nothing for homefield. I knew it was close to Annapolis but i figured skins logos on field etc etc., was unaware that Navy would basically be the home team, equipped with field paint and best seats for students, fans etc. With that adjustment, ND should have been 15 tops.

This week I make Arizona State -2, giving them a smidge more for their home field given the 12:30 start time and the heat likely playing a factor. No play.
 
Big move on Baylor out in Vegas, looks like no 7 for me. Unless it's fake. If that's the case, I can always get more.

In the meantime...

Baylor +6 medium 2u. Game should be 3 tops, and total will end up closer to 173 than 73; can get what i need offscreen for now, so....

OVER 73 medium 2u.

Both might fly in my face. Good, i'll get more.
 
after making the OVER bet, i was told by a friend who took it that it for sure is going to go down. So that's why he let me have a decent pop at 73 and didn't bother to move. Guess it might get to 70. Good, i'll tag it again.
 
agree that this may be the year for Baylor to get that Mouse off their back, would love to hear your thoughts on LSU as well unless that's already in the SEC thread
 
I made TCU 6, really no clue, gun to head would only have K-State as a dog, as they are monsters in these spots under Snyder.

Made Alabama 4, not really interested in either side there. I would consider a take if it went much higher small i guess.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
I made TCU 6, really no clue, gun to head would only have K-State as a dog, as they are monsters in these spots under Snyder.

Made Alabama 4, not really interested in either side there. I would consider a take if it went much higher small i guess.
Click to expand...

Thank you sir. The TCU/KSt game is the battle of opposites....KST just plods along, never has the athletes, etc, yet finds ways to win.
 
114 Temple +7.5 -105 small to medium 1.5u

Steam against me here today but Temple at home has proven it can be formidable. Beat a nationally-ranked side for the first time in 34 games dating to 1998 last week when using ECU's sloppiness to beat it at the new Vet. Too many points here in this battle of 5-win teams looking for bowl eligibility.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
114 Temple +7.5 -105 small to medium 1.5u

Steam against me here today but Temple at home has proven it can be formidable. Beat a nationally-ranked side for the first time in 34 games dating to 1998 last week when using ECU's sloppiness to beat it at the new Vet. Too many points here in this battle of 5-win teams looking for bowl eligibility.
Click to expand...


Any opinions on the total in that game Rex? TIA and good luck.
 
GL on the action this weekend Rexy. I'd love your thoughts on Iowa/MN tomorrow morning. This is the type of game that Iowa rolls into town and promptly rolls over my squad. I'm skeptical with the line currently at PK. seems too easy...

Also, any opinion on the Hopkins fight? I know you occasionally dabble in boxing and MMA. is B-Hop gonna get rolled or does he have a legit shot?
 
Temple holding ECU to such a small amount,of scoring was insane ecu shot themselves in the foot bad on that one... Memphis runs the ball well and,i,think theyll get theres against temple personally..gl
 
Saturday plays to this point:

123 Iowa +1 medium to big 2.5u. Not sure where they got this line. Teams going in opposite directions. Rode the Hawks to a big win last week and will stay on the horse here, as I made them almost a touchdown favorite. Minny off the bye and i respect Kill but this team just lost to Illi-freakin-Noy two weeks back. That team just pissed and shit all over itself last week. No thanks.

127 Ga Tech -3.5 small 1u. If it goes to 3, tack on another unit for a medium play. Still not sold on NC State and their luckbox cover last week. Tech should maul them up front.

129 Wiskydicks -17 medium to big 2.5 as well. If you have to lay worse, do it for medium-ish up to -18.5 good juice. Fundamental mismatch at the line of scrimmage. Dicks smashing folks now and taking no prisoners; have owned this series and Purdue lost their best receiver. Something around 58-20 seems right.

133 Duke -3.5 -105 medium 2u. Explain how Cuse gonna keep this close with their top 2 QB's on the shelf? Cutcliffe and the gang does it again.

154 Washington +6.5 medium 2u. Game should be hovering around a pick; not sure how UCLA can lay this on the road when the Bruins have won exactly one game all year by more than 10 points? Peterson cleaning house up at UW, but he's got his own Myles Jack, and the sumbitch's name is Shaq!

159 Texas Ayyunem +23.5 small 1u. If it goes up through 24 I'll bite for another unit. This one's the hold-your-noser of the weekend. I've done pretty well on these this year, thankfully, but it sure don't make 'em any easier to bet.

180 Texas State +14 small to med 1.5u. Just taking a price. Obviously Ga Southern is in the driver's seat to win the Sun Belt, and Tex State has struggled on offense as of late, but to give them two touchdowns at home seems a bit steep to me, especially when you look at where these two teams were rated when the season started. I don't think Franchione is that fuckin' bad, for cripes sakes.
 
I'll enlist in your Army on those last three dogs, Rex
Oh, and Glad to c u on Ioway
GL
 
Rex,

Any thoughts on WVU/Texas or Domers/ASU? I lean to taking the points in both of these personally but would be curious as to your take.
 
post 12 for Notre Dame.

I made 151 WV only -1.5 on top, but would not be interested in taking at this level; BOL opened 5.5 and CRIS opened 4. Not much value in taking 3.


Oh, and I'll be on The Executioner tonight. Um, I mean the Alien. Yeah, that's the ticket...Took +220 medium 2u play. Kovalev might have killed a man before, but he's not fought anyone like this monster. This guy has been drawing paychecks from boxing since Ronald Freakin' Reagan was the president.

GL today...
 
i got some 164 Baylor UNDER 73 medium, eating 0.1 juice (well, score it 0.2 for you guys who are stuck laying -110) ... total gonna drop there, so i will double back on OVER as we get closer to post, might be able to go OV 70.
 
Gl today Rex. Let's cash that ticket on the Executioner. Would be a hell of a story. Also with you on the Badgers. My Melvin Gordon heisman future i hoping for a 250 yard rushing day. Let's get it
 
CollegeKingRex said:
post 12 for Notre Dame.

I made 151 WV only -1.5 on top, but would not be interested in taking at this level; BOL opened 5.5 and CRIS opened 4. Not much value in taking 3.


Oh, and I'll be on The Executioner tonight. Um, I mean the Alien. Yeah, that's the ticket...Took +220 medium 2u play. Kovalev might have killed a man before, but he's not fought anyone like this monster. This guy has been drawing paychecks from boxing since Ronald Freakin' Reagan was the president.

GL today...
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
G-Tech a cinch to go to 3 and i think it's walters against me, so jot me down for another unit at -3 once it does get there...

GL to us all, folks...
 
Cheers mates.

163 Baylor/Oklahoma OVER 68.5 big 3u. I know it's sharpest money in the world against me, but i really think this game gets to the 80s comfortably. It might have bottomed out at this level, and a big bet is warranted at 69 and better, which is widely available.

GL!

:shake:
 
adding 137 Louisville -2.5 medium 2u. I respect the hell out of Addazio and the dual threat QB has been solid, but this will be the best defense he's faced all year. If U of L can get up off the mat after last Thursday's devastating loss, this is their game to win, even without Maudlin. Now that it's inside a field goal, lay it.
 
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